Flooding scenario for four Italian coastal plains using three relative sea level rise models

Marsico, Antonella; Lisco, Stefania; Presti, Valeria Lo; Antonioli, Fabrizio; Amorosi, Alessandro; Anzidei, Marco; Deiana, Giacomo; Falco, Giovanni De; Fontana, Alessandro; Fontolan, Giorgio; Moretti, Massimo; Orrù, Paolo; Serpelloni, Enrico; Sannino, Gianmaria; Vecchio, A.; Mastronuzzi, Giuseppe

doi:10.1080/17445647.2017.1415989

Cited by 33 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Coastal anthropization started in the 1950s [46], in the following decades the E-R coast became one of the most attractive tourist destinations in Italy and an important source for the regional economy. The combined effect of subsidence, sediment supply deficit due to the marked decrease in fluvial transport, removal of the dune ridge and increased anthropic pressure, cause the E-R coastal tract to be extremely sensitive to coastal flooding due to storm surges and sea-level rise [47]. In particular, a considerable portion of the E-R coastal area is currently below sea level and this would exacerbate the impact of future sea-level rise.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea-Level Change along the Emilia-Romagna Coast from Tide Gauge and Satellite Altimetry

2020

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Coastal flooding and retreat are markedly enhanced by sea-level rise. Thus, it is crucial to determine the sea-level variation at the local scale to support coastal hazard assessment and related management policies. In this work we focus on sea-level change along the Emilia-Romagna coast, a highly urbanized, 130 km-long belt facing the northern Adriatic Sea, by analyzing data from three tide gauges (with data records in the last 25–10 years) and related closest grid points from CMEMS monthly gridded satellite altimetry. The results reveal that the rate of sea-level rise observed by altimetry is coherent along the coast (2.8 ± 0.5 mm/year) for the period 1993–2019 and that a negative acceleration of −0.3 ± 0.1 mm/year is present, in contrast with the global scale. Rates resulting from tide gauge time series analysis diverge from these values mainly as a consequence of a large and heterogeneous rate of subsidence in the region. Over the common timespan, altimetry and tide gauge data show very high correlation, although their comparison suffers from the short overlapping period between the two data sets. Nevertheless, their combined use allows assessment of the recent (last 25 years) sea-level change along the Emilia-Romagna coast and to discuss the role of different interacting processes in the determination of the local sea level.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea-Level Change along the Emilia-Romagna Coast from Tide Gauge and Satellite Altimetry

2020

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“…Located in the central Mediterranean Sea, the Italian peninsula has more than 7,500 km of coasts, hosting around 18% of the country population (ISTAT), numerous towns and cities, industrial plants, commercial harbours and touristic activities, as well as cultural and natural heritage sites. Existing country-scale estimates of SLR up to the end of this century helps to identify the most critically exposed coastal areas of Italy (Lambeck et al 2011;Bonaduce et al 2016;Antonioli et al 2017;Marsico et al 2017). The North Adriatic coastal plain is acknowledged to be the largest and most vulnerable location to extreme coastal events due to the shape, morphology and low bathymetry of the Adriatic sea basin, which cause water level to increase relatively fast during coastal storms (Carbognin et al 2010;Ciavola and Coco 2017;Perini et al 2017).…”

Section: Area Of Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most of the peninsula shows a slow subsiding trend, although with some local variability. An estimate of VLM rates due to tectonic activity have been derived from studies conducted in Italy (Lambeck et al 2011;Antonioli et al 2017;Marsico et al 2017;Solari et al 2018). The North Adriatic coastal plain shows the most intense long-term geological subsidence rates (about 1 mm per year), increasing North to South.…”

Section: Vertical Land Movementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cost-benefit analysis of coastal flood defence measures in the North Adriatic Sea

Amadio¹,

Essenfelder²,

Bagli³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. The combined effect of global sea level rise and local subsidence phenomena poses a major threat to coastal settlements. Flooding events are expected to grow in frequency and magnitude, increasing the potential economic losses and costs of adaptation. In Italy, a large share of the population and economic activities are located along the coast of the peninsula, although risk of inundation is not uniformly distributed. The low-lying coastal plain of Northeast Italy is the most sensitive to relative sea level changes. Over the last half a century, the entire north-eastern Italian coast has experienced a significant rise in relative sea level, the main component of which was land subsidence. In the forthcoming decades, sea level rise is expected to become the first driver of coastal inundation hazard. We propose an assessment of flood hazard and risk linked with extreme sea level scenarios, both under historical conditions and sea level rise projections at 2050 and 2100. We run a hydrodynamic inundation model on two pilot sites located in the North Adriatic Sea along the Emilia-Romagna coast: Rimini and Cesenatico. Here, we compare alternative risk scenarios accounting for the effect of planned and hypothetical seaside renovation projects against the historical baseline. We apply a flood damage model developed for Italy to estimate the potential economic damage linked to flood scenarios and we calculate the change in expected annual damage according to changes in the relative sea level. Finally, damage reduction benefits are evaluated by means of cost-benefit analysis. Results suggest an overall profitability of the investigated projects over time, with increasing benefits due to increased probability of intense flooding in the next future.

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“…The area of study comprises the Veneto and Friuli Venezia Giulia coast, with an overall length of about 290 km, located in the NA region ( Figure 1). It includes some of the low-lying plains more vulnerable to sea-level rise in the Mediterranean region [32,33] as well as various fragile ecosystems (e.g., coastal wetlands, lagoons, deltas) and invaluable cultural and socio-economic locations (e.g., the city of Venice). The region is characterized by several subsiding areas [34] and extreme storm surge events (high tides) occasionally flooding the city of Venice [35,36].…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts in the North Adriatic Coastal Area. Part II: Consequences for Coastal Erosion Impacts at the Regional Scale

Gallina

Torresan

Zabeo

et al. 2019

Water

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Coastal erosion is an issue of major concern for coastal managers and is expected to increase in magnitude and severity due to global climate change. This paper analyzes the potential consequences of climate change on coastal erosion (e.g., impacts on beaches, wetlands and protected areas) by applying a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology to the North Adriatic (NA) coast of Italy. The approach employs hazard scenarios from a multi-model chain in order to project the spatial and temporal patterns of relevant coastal erosion stressors (i.e., increases in mean sea-level, changes in wave height and variations in the sediment mobility at the sea bottom) under the A1B climate change scenario. Site-specific environmental and socio-economic indicators (e.g., vegetation cover, geomorphology, population) and hazard metrics are then aggregated by means of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) with the aim to provide an example of exposure, susceptibility, risk and damage maps for the NA region. Among seasonal exposure maps winter and autumn depict the worse situation in 2070–2100, and locally around the Po river delta. Risk maps highlight that the receptors at higher risk are beaches, wetlands and river mouths. The work presents the results of the RRA tested in the NA region, discussing how spatial risk mapping can be used to establish relative priorities for intervention, to identify hot-spot areas and to provide a basis for the definition of coastal adaptation and management strategies.

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Flooding scenario for four Italian coastal plains using three relative sea level rise models

Cited by 33 publications

References 27 publications

Sea-Level Change along the Emilia-Romagna Coast from Tide Gauge and Satellite Altimetry

Sea-Level Change along the Emilia-Romagna Coast from Tide Gauge and Satellite Altimetry

Cost-benefit analysis of coastal flood defence measures in the North Adriatic Sea

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts in the North Adriatic Coastal Area. Part II: Consequences for Coastal Erosion Impacts at the Regional Scale

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