Flood risk dynamics and adaptation analyses for coastal cities based on internet big data and hydrology-hydrodynamic models

Shan, Xinmeng; Du, Shiqiang; Wang, Luyang; Zhang, Min; Li, Weijiang; Hu, Hengzhi; Wen, Jiahong

doi:10.1360/tb-2020-1536

Cited by 9 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…The building-code strategies that were used in this study include wet-floodproofing, dry-floodproofing, and building elevation. The costs include both initial investments and maintenance costs (Du et al 2020;Shan et al 2021). The benefits are expressed as the reduction in EAD from the current level.…”

Section: Cost-benefit Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The discount rate is a key indicator of cost-benefit evaluation, with great uncertainty and time dynamics (van den Bergh and Botzen 2014). This study used three discount rates: the Chinese official discount rate of 8% as a higher bound, a lowerbound discount rate of 4% to reflect the long-term benefits of investments, and an in-between rate of 6%, all of which have been applied in relevant studies (Du et al 2020;Shan et al 2021). It can be calculated using Eq.…”

Section: Cost-benefit Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Risk analysis of extreme storm floods is crucial for coastal cities to develop strategic plans and adaptation measures (Scussolini et al 2017;Du et al 2020;Wang et al 2020). In particular, extreme floods with low probability and high magnitude have become the focus of recent studies because of their catastrophic consequences and losses (Shan et al 2021;Tang et al 2021). Many studies have assessed flood risks in coastal cities in the context of Abstract Long-term flood risk adaptation and decision making are complex because the future is full of deep uncertainties.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Studies for Ho Chi Minh City (Scussolini et al 2017), Jakarta (Ward et al 2011), New York (Aerts et al 2014), Los Angeles (de Ruig et al 2020), London (Hall et al 2019), and Osaka Bay (Ha et al 2021) have focused on the impact of coastal flooding on people and assets, and the cost effectiveness of adaptation measures under different sea level rise scenarios. In addition, some studies have focused on the cost-benefit analysis of flood adaptation measures at the household level (Wang et al 2015;Qin and Stewart 2020;Shan et al 2021). For example, Shan et al (2021) evaluated the cost-effectiveness of two flood adaptation measures-dry flood-proofing and wet flood-proofing-for flood adaptation of residential buildings in Shanghai.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, some studies have focused on the cost-benefit analysis of flood adaptation measures at the household level (Wang et al 2015;Qin and Stewart 2020;Shan et al 2021). For example, Shan et al (2021) evaluated the cost-effectiveness of two flood adaptation measures-dry flood-proofing and wet flood-proofing-for flood adaptation of residential buildings in Shanghai. Qin and Stewart (2020) assessed the cost-effectiveness of four adaptation measures for reducing the risk of residential buildings.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Using Multidisciplinary Analysis to Develop Adaptation Options against Extreme Coastal Floods

Shan

Wang

Wen

et al. 2022

Int J Disaster Risk Sci

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Long-term flood risk adaptation and decision making are complex because the future is full of deep uncertainties. Flexibility and robustness can be used to deal with future uncertainty. This study developed an integrated modeling framework that extends previous studies to the spatial domain to assess the future flood risks and the cost and benefit of three adaptation measures for four types of buildings in Shanghai. Real options analysis (ROA) and dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP) were integrated to develop a dynamic adaptation pathway and identify robust adaptation options. The results show that: (1) Sea level rise and land subsidence will significantly exacerbate the flood risks in Shanghai; (2) Among the three flood control measures, wet-floodproofing has the best economic performance in terms of both the net present value and the benefit/cost ratio, followed by dry-floodproofing, and elevation; (3) Dry-floodproofing can be used at the beginning of the future period (2030–2100), and it can be replaced by wet-floodproofing in 2035–2042; the elevation measure also shows good performance at the beginning of implementation, but its performance will decline after 2041–2045; (4) The combined strategy of dry- and wet-floodproofing in 2044–2046 and a hybrid strategy combining the three measures should be the optimal solution for reducing the flood risks in 2047–2051. The methodology developed in this study can provide insights for coastal cities to formulate cost-effective and feasible adaptation strategies in a deeply uncertain future.

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Section: Cost-benefit Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Cost-benefit Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Using Multidisciplinary Analysis to Develop Adaptation Options against Extreme Coastal Floods

Shan

Wang

Wen

et al. 2022

Int J Disaster Risk Sci

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Risk assessment of shanghai extreme flooding under the land use change scenario

2021

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Environmental changes have led to non-stationary ood risks in coastal cities. How to quantitatively characterize the future change trend and effectively adapt is a frontier scienti c problem that needs to be solved urgently. To this end, this study uses the 2010 Shanghai land use data as the base and uses the GeoSOS-FLUS model to simulate future land use change scenarios (2030, 2050, and 2100). Based on the results of storm and ood numerical simulations, probabilistic risk, and other multidisciplinary methods, extreme storm and ood risks of various land uses (residential land, commercial and public service land, industrial land, transportation land, agricultural land, and other land) in Shanghai are analyzed and 4 adaptation strategies to deal with extreme ooding have been developed. The research results show that: 1) Under the two emission scenarios, residential, commercial and public service, and industrial land have the highest exposure assets. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the exposure of assets in 2100, 2050, and 2030 will be 1.7 times, 1.5 times, and 1.3 times that in 2010 for 1/1000-year, respectively; the losses will be 2.7 times, 2.0 times, and 1.8 times that in 2010, respectively. 2) The spatial pattern of loss, which forms the scattered distribution of 1/10-year, is mainly distributed on both sides of the Huangpu River. For 1/1000-year, which is mainly gradually showed a strip distribution, continuous distribution of the city center, and the Qingpu-Songjiang depression in the southwest are high-risk areas for storm oods.3) The risks are mainly distributed in the city center, the lower reaches of the Huangpu River, the northern shore of Hangzhou Bay, the Qingpu-Songjiang depression in the southwest, and Chongming Island (southwest and northeast). Our work can provide decisionmaking basis for risk-sensitive based urban planning, ood risk adaptation, and resilience building in Shanghai. The methodology can also provide a reference for risk assessment in other coastal areas.

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Assessing the scale effect of urban vertical patterns on urban waterlogging: An empirical study in Shenzhen

Huang,

Lin,

et al. 2024

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

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Flood risk dynamics and adaptation analyses for coastal cities based on internet big data and hydrology-hydrodynamic models

Cited by 9 publications

References 22 publications

Using Multidisciplinary Analysis to Develop Adaptation Options against Extreme Coastal Floods

Using Multidisciplinary Analysis to Develop Adaptation Options against Extreme Coastal Floods

Risk assessment of shanghai extreme flooding under the land use change scenario

Assessing the scale effect of urban vertical patterns on urban waterlogging: An empirical study in Shenzhen

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