Flood Risk and the U.S. Housing Market

Kousky, Carolyn; Kunreuther, Howard; LaCour‐Little, Michael; Wächter, Susan M.

doi:10.1080/10527001.2020.1836915

Cited by 42 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 71 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These maps are revised periodically, but data points may not provide an accurate depiction of future flood risk. The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Maps in the USA have also met with criticism (Kousky et al, 2020). These maps should be updated every 5 years, but they tend to be based on much older data or modelling.…”

Section: Climate Risks and The Implications For Valuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Climate risks and their implications for commercial property valuations

Sayce

Clayton

Devaney

et al. 2022

JPIF

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

PurposeThe authors outline a framework that captures the channels through which physical climate risks could affect cash flows and pricing of income-producing real estate. This facilitates detailed consideration of how the future performance of real estate investments could be affected by such risks.Design/methodology/approachThis is a literature-based investigation that draws on work commissioned by UNEP-FI (Clayton et al., 2021a, b). It extends this work to consider in more detail the channels through which climate risks may impact property performance and the implications for the valuation community.FindingsRecent empirical studies have identified more instances where pricing is reflecting both current and anticipated climate risks. Market valuations cannot properly incorporate climate risk without clear evidence that it is priced by market participants, but valuers can advise clients on the potential for future impacts.Research limitations/implicationsWhile inferences can be made from studies of residential real estate, more research on commercial real estate pricing and climate risk is required to assist valuers and their clients, as well as other stakeholders in the real estate market.Practical implicationsDifferences between a Market Value and an Investment Value context are considered, and how valuers could and should account for climate risk in each setting is discussed with reference to existing professional standards and guidance.Originality/valueThe article synthesises a wide range of literature to produce a framework for the channels by which real estate values could be influenced by climate risk.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate Risks and The Implications For Valuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate risks and their implications for commercial property valuations

Sayce

Clayton

Devaney

et al. 2022

JPIF

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Flood probability interpolation tools can help address these issues by reducing the bias of spatially resolved flood probability maps. Refined flood probability maps can be useful to improve decisions, for example about where and how to build or whether to elevate a house, whether and how to change local zoning, and how to set fair flood insurance rates [9,[32][33][34][35]. shows the FEMA floodplains, derived from FEMA flood surface elevation data for the 1% and 0.2% annual chance (1 in 100-year and 1 in 500-year) floods.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The FLOod Probability Interpolation Tool (FLOPIT): A Simple Tool to Improve Spatial Flood Probability Quantification and Communication

Zarekarizi

Roop-Eckart

Sharma

et al. 2021

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Understanding flood probabilities is essential to making sound decisions about flood-risk management. Many people rely on flood probability maps to inform decisions about purchasing flood insurance, buying or selling real-estate, flood-proofing a house, or managing floodplain development. Current flood probability maps typically use flood zones (for example the 1 in 100 or 1 in 500-year flood zones) to communicate flooding probabilities. However, this choice of communication format can miss important details and lead to biased risk assessments. Here we develop, test, and demonstrate the FLOod Probability Interpolation Tool (FLOPIT). FLOPIT interpolates flood probabilities between water surface elevation to produce continuous flood-probability maps. FLOPIT uses water surface elevation inundation maps for at least two return periods and creates Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) as well as inundation maps for new return levels. Potential advantages of FLOPIT include being open-source, relatively easy to implement, capable of creating inundation maps from agencies other than FEMA, and applicable to locations where FEMA published flood inundation maps but not flood probability. Using publicly available data from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood risk databases as well as state and national datasets, we produce continuous flood-probability maps at three example locations in the United States: Houston (TX), Muncy (PA), and Selinsgrove (PA). We find that the discrete flood zones generally communicate substantially lower flood probabilities than the continuous estimates.

show abstract

“…Numerous studies have linked people's "accessible experiences" with local weather and temperature with their beliefs about climate change (Egan and Mullin 2012;Hamilton and Stampone 2013;Joireman et al 2010;Shao et al 2014;Schuldt and Roh 2014;Weber and Stern 2011;Zaval et al 2014). It is also common that soon after the disaster occurs, many people forget its lessons, showing what can be called a "collective amnesia" (Kousky et al 2020;Marshall 2015).…”

Section: Beliefs About Climate Change and Sea-level Risementioning

confidence: 99%