Flood of June 26-29, 2006, Mohawk, Delaware, and Susquehanna River Basins, New York

Suro, Thomas P.; Firda, Gary D.; Szabo, Carolyn O.

doi:10.3133/ofr20091063

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 4 publications

(8 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The historical records associated with these clusters show that these areas are prone to frequent and severe flooding. For example, the mainstem of the Susquehanna and Delaware River have experienced several devastating floods in past decades, with the four most recent events in the years 2004, 2006(Gitro et al 2014Suro et al 2009). These historical events caused record to near-record flood crests along most of the streams and rivers throughout the main stem Susquehanna and Delaware River.…”

Section: B Flood Hazard and Exposure From Future Climatic Conditionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Flood Risk Projections under Climate Change

Sharma

Gomez

Keller

et al. 2021

Journal of Hydrometeorology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Flood-related risks to people and property are expected to increase in the future due to environmental and demographic changes. It is important to quantify and effectively communicate flood hazards and exposure to inform the design and implementation of flood risk management strategies. Here we develop an integrated modeling framework to assess projected changes in regional riverine flood inundation risks. The framework samples climate model outputs to force a hydrologic model and generate streamflow projections. Together with a statistical and hydraulic model, we use the projected streamflow to map the uncertainty of flood inundation projections for extreme flood events. We implement the framework for rivers across the state of Pennsylvania, United States. Our projections suggest that flood hazards and exposure across Pennsylvania are overall increasing with future climate change. Specific regions, including the main stem Susquehanna River, lower portion of the Allegheny basin and central portion of Delaware River basin, demonstrate higher flood inundation risks. In our analysis, the climate uncertainty dominates the overall uncertainty surrounding the flood inundation projection chain. The combined hydrologic and hydraulic uncertainties can account for as much as 37% of the total uncertainty. We discuss how this framework can provide regional and dynamic flood-risk assessments and help to inform the design of risk-management strategies.

show abstract

Section: B Flood Hazard and Exposure From Future Climatic Conditionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Flood Risk Projections under Climate Change

Sharma

Gomez

Keller

et al. 2021

Journal of Hydrometeorology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…1) became inundated with excessive runoff from heavy rainfall over the 3-day period. In the week preceding heavy rainfall, much of the northern mid-Atlantic had been dry, with precipitation amounts generally <1.27 cm (0.50 in) in central New York and northeastern Pennsylvania (Suro et al 2009).…”

Section: Event Overview a 26-28 June 2006mentioning

confidence: 99%

Two major heavy rain/flood events in the mid-Atlantic: June 2006 and September 2011

Gitro¹,

Evans²,

Grumm³

2014

J. Operational Meteor.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In June 2006, significant flooding and flash flooding impacted much of the mid-Atlantic region as a continuous supply of deep tropical moisture moved north from the subtropical Atlantic ahead of a slowmoving cold front. A 3-day period of heavy rain resulted in nearly 38.1 cm (15 in) of rain across portions of the northern mid-Atlantic with record flooding along the mainstem Susquehanna and Delaware Rivers. In September 2011, moisture associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee resulted in a 24-h period of heavy rain over which rainfall totals approached 30.3 cm (12 in) across portions of central New York and northern Pennsylvania. Numerous river-stage records that were set in the June 2006 event were shattered along the mainstem Susquehanna River during the September 2011 flood. Damage estimates resulting from the flooding in both events were >2 billion dollars, and 22 lives were lost. Multiple counties across the northern mid-Atlantic were declared disaster areas. Both flood events were investigated to identify the similar meteorological features and patterns responsible for extreme rainfall. Several crucial similarities were identified that likely combined to produce historic socioeconomic and environmental impacts. One of the similarities was that each event had a well-established atmospheric river in place that provided the uninterrupted supply of deep tropical moisture. Additionally, although these events displayed many of the large-scale characteristics identified in previous flash flood classification schemes, both events were associated with the presence of coastal fronts that appeared to make these cases different from many otherwise similar and previously documented flood cases.

show abstract

“…Precipitation falling over a single drainage basin flows into a common outlet, the aggregate effects of which can be devastating in large volumes. In 2006, heavy precipitation over the Susquehanna River basin in New York and Pennsylvania caused record high discharges along the Susquehanna River and flooding in the region, ultimately leading to federal-level disaster declarations and disaster-recovery assistance from the US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in excess of $227 million (Suro et al, 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Hierarchical Max-Infinitely Divisible Spatial Model for Extreme Precipitation

Bopp

Shaby

Huser

2020

Journal of the American Statistical Association

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Understanding the spatial extent of extreme precipitation is necessary for determining flood risk and adequately designing infrastructure (e.g., stormwater pipes) to withstand such hazards. While environmental phenomena typically exhibit weakening spatial dependence at increasingly extreme levels, limiting max-stable process models for block maxima have a rigid dependence structure that does not capture this type of behavior. We propose a flexible Bayesian model from a broader family of (conditionally) max-infinitely divisible processes that allows for weakening spatial dependence at increasingly extreme levels, and due to a hierarchical representation of the likelihood in terms of random effects, our inference approach scales to large datasets. The proposed model is constructed using flexible random basis functions that are estimated from the data, allowing for straightforward inspection of the predominant spatial patterns of extremes. In addition, the described process possesses (conditional) max-stability as a special case, making inference on the tail dependence class possible. We apply our model to extreme precipitation in eastern North America, and show that the proposed model adequately captures the extremal behavior of the data.

show abstract

Flood of June 26-29, 2006, Mohawk, Delaware, and Susquehanna River Basins, New York

Cited by 5 publications

References 4 publications

Regional Flood Risk Projections under Climate Change

Regional Flood Risk Projections under Climate Change

Two major heavy rain/flood events in the mid-Atlantic: June 2006 and September 2011

A Hierarchical Max-Infinitely Divisible Spatial Model for Extreme Precipitation

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About