Flood hazard in Europe in an ensemble of regional climate scenarios

Dankers, Rutger; Feyen, Luc

doi:10.1029/2008jd011523

Cited by 156 publications

(132 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…This is similar to the results of other regional studies (e.g. Lehner et al (2006), Dankers and Feyen (2009) and Hirabayashi et al (2008)) which found differences in impacts between scenarios. Increases in the magnitude of the 100-year flood occur where precipitation increases during at least the floodgenerating season(s).…”

Section: Flood Risksupporting

confidence: 82%

“…The focus on the 100-year event enables a direct comparison with other studies (Lehner et al 2006;Hirabayashi et al 2008;Dankers and Feyen 2009). …”

Section: Flood Frequencymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Bell et al 2007;Prudhomme et al 2003;Milly et al 2002;Lehner et al 2006;Hirabayashi et al 2008;Dankers and Feyen 2009;Dankers et al 2013). A key conclusion of such studies is that the projected effects of climate change on the flood hazard may be very substantial, but are very dependent on climate scenario.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale

2014

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This paper presents an assessment of the implications of climate change for global river flood risk. It is based on the estimation of flood frequency relationships at a grid resolution of 0.5×0.5°, using a global hydrological model with climate scenarios derived from 21 climate models, together with projections of future population. Four indicators of the flood hazard are calculated; change in the magnitude and return period of flood peaks, flood-prone population and cropland exposed to substantial change in flood frequency, and a generalised measure of regional flood risk based on combining frequency curves with generic flood damage functions. Under one climate model, emissions and socioeconomic scenario (HadCM3 and SRES A1b), in 2050 the current 100-year flood would occur at least twice as frequently across 40 % of the globe, approximately 450 million flood-prone people and 430 thousand km 2 of flood-prone cropland would be exposed to a doubling of flood frequency, and global flood risk would increase by approximately 187 % over the risk in 2050 in the absence of climate change. There is strong regional variability (most adverse impacts would be in Asia), and considerable variability between climate models. In 2050, the range in increased exposure across 21 climate models under SRES A1b is 31-450 million people and 59 to 430 thousand km 2 of cropland, and the change in risk varies between −9 and +376 %. The paper presents impacts by region, and also presents relationships between change in global mean surface temperature and impacts on the global flood hazard. There are a number of caveats with the analysis; it is based on one global hydrological model only, the climate scenarios are constructed using pattern-scaling, and the precise impacts are sensitive to some of the assumptions in the definition and application.

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Section: Flood Risksupporting

confidence: 82%

“…The focus on the 100-year event enables a direct comparison with other studies (Lehner et al 2006;Hirabayashi et al 2008;Dankers and Feyen 2009). …”

Section: Flood Frequencymentioning

confidence: 99%

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The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale

2014

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“…Employing daily river flow estimated from RCM or GCM yields and hydrological models, a few studies for Europe 55,56 and for the world 57 have found large-scale variations in frequency and/or magnitude of floods in the 21st century. Hirabayashi et al 57 found that the frequency of floods in many regions of the world, except in North America and central and western Eurasia has increased.…”

Section: Possible Causes For Changes In Flood Behaviourmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in Rainfall and Peak Flows for some River Basins in India

Jain¹,

Nayak²,

Singh³

et al. 2017

Current Science

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The aim of the present study is to examine the trends in magnitude and intensity of precipitation and peak floods of different magnitudes for seven major river basins in India. Data pertaining to daily flows for about 30-odd years and precipitation for 61 years (from 1951 to 2012) were analysed. Linear trends were calculated for the number of rainy days, rainfall intensity and occurrence of flood peaks for all basins. Using the Sen's slope estimator, it was found that annual peak rainfall increases for most of the basins in India. From the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope, it was found that the Cauvery and Brahamani and Baitarani basins show a rising trend in the number of rainy days, but the trend was falling for five other basins. When the basins were classified as mountains and plains, it was found that the number of daily rainfall events of different magnitudes was more in the mountains compared to the plains. The rivers which flow from west to east direction have more rainy days compared to those which flow towards the west. It was observed that in general the number of rainy days was falling while the number of intense events was increasing. The number of flood peaks of smaller magnitude in different decades showed slight falling trend. It was also found that there was falling or no trend for severe floods. Anthropogenic activities (construction of storage reservoirs, diversions, urbanization, land-use change, and soil and water conservation measures, etc.) have probably affected the generation of peak floods in the rivers of India. River regulation through storage reservoirs in the past 50 years has resulted in the reduction of peak flows. Hence with the same rainfall, the flood peaks would have increased under virgin conditions. Keywords: Flood peaks, rainfall trends, river basins.PRECIPITATION is a key component of the earth's hydrologic cycle, but it is also one of the most difficult hydrometeorological variables to measure and model accurately. Precipitation at a place is determined by large-scale as well as local processes, and therefore exhibits pronounced variability in a range of spatial and temporal scales. Among the climate variables, precipitation is the most important process for the water sector. It is a variable that drives the key natural resource process in a river basin. Therefore, it is most widely analysed in climate change impact studies.Run-off from a river basin is the integrated outcome of climatic inputs and basin topography, land use/cover, and water management infrastructure. Therefore, a change in the precipitation and other relevant climatic variables, land use/land cover, and water utilization leads to a change in water yield from a catchment and its temporal distribution. It was found that river flow has strong natural variability and exhibits long-term persistence 1,2 . This behaviour can confound the results of trend and significance tests.Global warming is unequivocal and is expected to be reflected in an increase in the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation ev...

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“…Data from Global or Regional Climate Models (GCMs/RCMs) are often used to drive hydrological models, to assess impacts. Examples include; Lehner et al (2006), who looked at both floods and droughts in Europe using the WaterGAP model with data from two GCMs; Dankers and Feyen (2009), who investigated flooding in Europe using the LISFLOOD model with data from two RCMs nested in two GCMs; and Bell et al (2012), who investigated flooding in the Thames Basin, UK, using the G2G model with data from an 11-member RCM ensemble.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic impacts of climate change on flood frequency using response surfaces I: England and Wales

et al. 2013

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The impacts of climate change on hydrology are an important focus of research around the world, but use of large ensembles to drive impact models is not necessarily straightforward and has to be re-done when new projections are released. Here an alternative sensitivity framework approach is demonstrated, using a set of typical response surfaces alongside the probabilistic UK Climate Projections (UKCP09). These projections comprise sets of 10,000 changes in a number of variables, available for 10 river-basin regions covering England and Wales. Estimates of the potential range of impacts on 20-year return period flood peaks are presented for different types of catchment in each region. Regional average impact ranges are compared for a number of time-horizons and emissions scenarios. Results show clear differences in impacts between catchments of different types and between regions. South-East England has the highest impacts with the greatest uncertainty range, while the Dee region has the lowest impacts and smallest uncertainty range. Regional differences are due to both spatial differences in projections and a differing regional balance in the number of catchments of each type. Ease of application of multiple projections is a clear advantage of this sensitivity-based approach to impact assessment, which could be extended to other regions and sectors.

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Flood hazard in Europe in an ensemble of regional climate scenarios

Cited by 156 publications

References 46 publications

The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale

The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale

Trends in Rainfall and Peak Flows for some River Basins in India

Probabilistic impacts of climate change on flood frequency using response surfaces I: England and Wales

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