Flood-frequency estimation for very low annual exceedance probabilities using historical, paleoflood, and regional information with consideration of nonstationarity

Ryberg, Karen R.; Kolars, Kelsey A.; Kiang, Julie E.; Carr, Meredith L.

doi:10.3133/sir20205065

Cited by 8 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 80 publications

(167 reference statements)

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“…The selected global-scale databases for the analysis after quality control are the ISD database [102][103][104][105][106][107][108][109][110][111] for near-surface hourly temperature, dew point, sea level pressure, and wind speed; the CAMELS database [112][113][114][115] for the daily streamflow; the USGS database [116] for the hourly streamflow; the GHCN database [117][118][119][120][121] for the daily precipitation; and the HPD database (https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/, lastly accessed on 15 December 2020) for the hourly precipitation. From the contained stations in each database, we selected stations with more than 5 years of full records (see Table 1 for more information on the selected stations, and Figure 1 for the visualization of their locations), and we discarded recordings that have quality flags.…”

Section: Global-scale Data Extraction and Processingmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Global-Scale Investigation of Stochastic Similarities in Marginal Distribution and Dependence Structure of Key Hydrological-Cycle Processes

et al. 2021

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To seek stochastic analogies in key processes related to the hydrological cycle, an extended collection of several billions of records from hundred thousands of worldwide stations is used in this work. The examined processes are the near-surface hourly temperature, dew point, relative humidity, sea level pressure, and atmospheric wind speed, as well as the hourly/daily streamflow and precipitation. Through the use of robust stochastic metrics such as the K-moments and a second-order climacogram (i.e., variance of the averaged process vs. scale), it is found that several stochastic similarities exist in both the marginal structure, in terms of the first four moments, and in the second-order dependence structure. Stochastic similarities are also detected among the examined processes, forming a specific hierarchy among their marginal and dependence structures, similar to the one in the hydrological cycle. Finally, similarities are also traced to the isotropic and nearly Gaussian turbulence, as analyzed through extensive lab recordings of grid turbulence and of turbulent buoyant jet along the axis, which resembles the turbulent shear and buoyant regime that dominates and drives the hydrological-cycle processes in the boundary layer. The results are found to be consistent with other studies in literature such as solar radiation, ocean waves, and evaporation, and they can be also justified by the principle of maximum entropy. Therefore, they allow for the development of a universal stochastic view of the hydrological-cycle under the Hurst–Kolmogorov dynamics, with marginal structures extending from nearly Gaussian to Pareto-type tail behavior, and with dependence structures exhibiting roughness (fractal) behavior at small scales, long-term persistence at large scales, and a transient behavior at intermediate scales.

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Section: Global-scale Data Extraction and Processingmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Global-Scale Investigation of Stochastic Similarities in Marginal Distribution and Dependence Structure of Key Hydrological-Cycle Processes

et al. 2021

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“…George and Mudelsee, 2019). Compared to estimates based solely on instrumental gage records, when flood frequency analysis at Winnipeg also includes historic and paleoflood evidence, the estimated risk of a future 1826-like event increases by an order of magnitude (from 10 −4 to 10 −3 ; Ryberg et al, 2021).…”

Section: The 1826 Flood In Quantitative Risk Assessmentsmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…George and Rannie, 2003). Because the extended paleoflood record did not support fragmentary accounts of an exceptionally large Red River flood in 1776, this event has been removed from contemporary assessments of regional flood hazards (Brooks and St. George, 2015; Ryberg et al, 2021).…”

Section: Paleoflood Analysis On the Canadian Red Rivermentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, on the American reach of the river, the very longest gage-based estimates of discharge only extend back to ce 1882 at Grand Forks and ce 1897 at Fargo. Because observations span a relatively short interval, it is difficult to accurately detect trends in peak flows or determine the likelihood of high-magnitude, low-frequency events (Klemes, 1989; Ryberg et al, 2021). By contrast, flood records for the Red River in Canada extend back to the middle of the 17th century, and that extended perspective has led Canadian communities to adopt a higher level of flood protection than their American counterparts.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The need for paleoflood investigations on the American reach of the Red River of the North

et al. 2021

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Over the past century, the Red River of the North has been the least stationary river in the continental United States. In Canada, historical and paleoenvironmental evidence indicates severe floods were common during the early 1800s, with the record ce 1826 flood having an estimated peak discharge 50% higher than the second-most severe flood ever observed. Unfortunately, the recorded history of flooding upstream in the United States does not begin until seven decades after this event. If 1826 was an equally exceptional flood on American reach of the river, then current flood-frequency curves for the river underestimate significantly the risks posed by future flooding. Alternatively, if the American stretch did not produce a major flood in 1826, then the recent spate of flooding that has occurred over the past two decades is exceptional within the context of the past 200 years. Communities in the Fargo-Moorhead metropolitan area are building a 58-km long, $2.75 billion (USD) diversion channel that would redirect floodwaters westward around the two cities before returning it to the main channel. Because this and other infrastructure in North Dakota and Minnesota is intended to provide protection against low-probability, high-magnitude floods, new paleoflood investigations in the region would help local, state, and federal policy-makers better understand the true flood threats posed by the Red River of the North.

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“…Future projections of risk are needed for scenariobased decision analysis, but growing evidence of historical changes in flooding (Blöschl et al, 2019;Environment Agency, 2020;Hannaford et al, 2021;Slater et al, 2021) has also challenged the assumption of stationarity that has been inherent in most statistical flood models. Practical guidance on the incorporation of nonstationary extreme value analysis is now appearing for flood analysts (US Army Corps of Engineers, 2018; Ryberg et al, 2020;Environment Agency, 2021a), enabling uncertainty relating to the choice of an appropriate baseline to be quantified within a decision analysis.…”

Section: B Monster Assimilation: Recognition Of Epistemic Uncertainti...mentioning

confidence: 99%

How to cope with uncertainty monsters in flood risk management?

Knotters,

Bokhove,

Lamb

et al. 2024

Camb. prisms Water

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Strategies are proposed to cope with uncertainties in a way that all possible kinds of uncertainty are named, recognized, statistically quantified as far as possible and utilized in efficient decision-making in flood risk management (FRM). We elaborated on the metaphor of uncertainty as a monster. We recommend two strategies to cope with the uncertainty monster to support efficient decision-making in FRM: monster adaptation and monster assimilation. We present three cases to illustrate these strategies. We argue that these strategies benefit from improving the structure and reducing the complexity of decision problems. We discuss ways to involve decision-makers in FRM, and how communication strategies can be responsive to their informational needs.

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Flood-frequency estimation for very low annual exceedance probabilities using historical, paleoflood, and regional information with consideration of nonstationarity

Cited by 8 publications

References 80 publications

A Global-Scale Investigation of Stochastic Similarities in Marginal Distribution and Dependence Structure of Key Hydrological-Cycle Processes

A Global-Scale Investigation of Stochastic Similarities in Marginal Distribution and Dependence Structure of Key Hydrological-Cycle Processes

The need for paleoflood investigations on the American reach of the Red River of the North

How to cope with uncertainty monsters in flood risk management?

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