Plot of 95-percent parametric and nonparametric prediction intervals for an individual estimate of total dissolved solids concentration resulting from the regression model fit between total dissolved solids and the log of discharge for the Cuyahoga River data from example 9.

Weather and climate extremes have been varying and changing on many different time scales. In recent decades, heat waves have generally become more frequent across the United States, while cold waves have been decreasing. While this is in keeping with expectations in a warming climate, it turns out that decadal variations in the number of U.S. heat and cold waves do not correlate well with the observed U.S. warming during the last century. Annual peak flow data reveal that river flooding trends on the century scale do not show uniform changes across the country. While flood magnitudes in the Southwest have been decreasing, flood magnitudes in the Northeast and north-central United States have been increasing. Confounding the analysis of trends in river flooding is multiyear and even multidecadal variability likely caused by both large-scale atmospheric circulation changes and basin-scale “memory” in the form of soil moisture. Droughts also have long-term trends as well as multiyear and decadal variability. Instrumental data indicate that the Dust Bowl of the 1930s and the drought in the 1950s were the most significant twentieth-century droughts in the United States, while tree ring data indicate that the megadroughts over the twelfth century exceeded anything in the twentieth century in both spatial extent and duration. The state of knowledge of the factors that cause heat waves, cold waves, floods, and drought to change is fairly good with heat waves being the best understood.

During the 20 years from 1992 to 2011, pesticides were found at concentrations that exceeded aquatic-life benchmarks in many rivers and streams that drain agricultural, urban, and mixed-land use watersheds. Overall, the proportions of assessed streams with one or more pesticides that exceeded an aquatic-life benchmark were very similar between the two decades for agricultural (69% during 1992-2001 compared to 61% during 2002-2011) and mixed-land-use streams (45% compared to 46%). Urban streams, in contrast, increased from 53% during 1992-2011 to 90% during 2002-2011, largely because of fipronil and dichlorvos. The potential for adverse effects on aquatic life is likely greater than these results indicate because potentially important pesticide compounds were not included in the assessment. Human-health benchmarks were much less frequently exceeded, and during 2002-2011, only one agricultural stream and no urban or mixed-land-use streams exceeded human-health benchmarks for any of the measured pesticides. Widespread trends in pesticide concentrations, some downward and some upward, occurred in response to shifts in use patterns primarily driven by regulatory changes and introductions of new pesticides.

Statistical relationships between annual floods at 200 long-term (85-127 years of record) streamgauges in the coterminous United States and the global mean carbon dioxide concentration (GMCO2) record are explored. The streamgauge locations are limited to those with little or no regulation or urban development. The coterminous US is divided into four large regions and stationary bootstrapping is used to evaluate if the patterns of these statistical associations are significantly different from what would be expected under the null hypothesis that flood magnitudes are independent of GMCO2. In none of the four regions defined in this study is there strong statistical evidence for flood magnitudes increasing with increasing GMCO2. One region, the southwest, showed a statistically significant negative relationship between GMCO2 and flood magnitudes. The statistical methods applied compensate both for the inter-site correlation of flood magnitudes and the shorter-term (up to a few decades) serial correlation of floods.Key words floods; trends; climate change; statistics; carbon dioxide L'intensité des crues aux Etats-Unis a-t-elle changé avec les niveaux mondiaux de CO 2 ?Résumé Nous avons étudié les relations statistiques entre les crues annuelles mesurées en 200 stations de jaugeage à long terme (85 à 127 ans d'enregistrement) de la partie continentale des Etats-Unis et la concentration moyenne globale du dioxyde de carbone (GMCO2). Nous nous sommes limités aux stations de jaugeage peu ou pas influencées par la réglementation ou la croissance urbaine. La partie continentale des Etats-Unis a été divisée en quatre grandes régions et on a utilisé la méthode du bootstrap stationnaire pour tester si les modéles de ces associations statistiques sont sensiblement différents de ce qui serait attendu sous l'hypothése nulle que l'intensité des crues est indépendante de GMCO2. Dans aucune des quatre régions définies dans cette étude n'existent de fortes preuves statistiques que l'intensité des crues augmente avec la croissance de GMCO2. Une région, au Sud-Ouest, présente une relation décroissante statistiquement significative entre GMCO2 et l'intensité des crues. Les méthodes statistiques appliquées compensent la corrélation de l'intensité des crues entre stations et l'autocorrélation à court terme (jusqu'à quelques dizaines d'années) des séries de crues.

Water security is a top concern for social well-being, and dramatic changes in the availability of freshwater have occurred as a result of human uses and landscape management. Elevated nutrient loading and perturbations to major ion composition have resulted from human activities and have degraded freshwater resources. This study addresses the emerging nature of streamwater quality in the 21st century through analysis of concentrations and trends in a wide variety of constituents in streams and rivers of the U.S. Concentrations of 15 water quality constituents including nutrients, major ions, sediment, and specific conductance were analyzed over the period 1982−2012 and a targeted trend analysis was performed from 1992 to 2012. Although environmental policy is geared toward addressing the longstanding problem of nutrient overenrichment, these efforts have had uneven success, with decreasing nutrient concentrations at urbanized sites and little to no change at agricultural sites. Additionally, freshwaters are being salinized rapidly in all human-dominated land use types. While efforts to control nutrients are ongoing, rapid salinity increases are ushering in a new set of poorly defined issues. Increasing salinity negatively affects biodiversity, mobilizes sediment-bound contaminants, and increases lead contamination of drinking water, but its effects are not well integrated into current paradigms of water management.