Flood frequency analysis using historical data: accounting for random and systematic errors

Neppel, Luc; Renard, Benjamin; Lang, Michel; Ayral, Pierre Alain; Cœur, Denis; Gaumé, Éric; Jacob, Nicolas; Payrastre, Olivier; Pobanz, Karine; Vinet, Freddy

doi:10.1080/02626660903546092

Cited by 79 publications

(96 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…In the River Gardon (southern France), the frequency pattern of large floods (> 50-year floods) has decreased since the late 19th century, whereas the extraordinary and ordinary floods increased during the 20th century ( Fig. 8c) (Sheffer et al, 2008;Neppel et al, 2010). Similarly, historical flood series from north-eastern Spain indicate a lack of statistical significant trend for large catastrophic floods, whereas extraordinary floods show a significant rise, especially since 1850 (Barrera-Escoda and Llasat, 2015).…”

Section: Flood Magnitude Sensitivity To Climate Changementioning

confidence: 94%

“…Table 1 shows a compilation of 46 case studies with historical discharge estimates at sites with multiple floods with discharge estimates published in peer review papers or being cross-checked with the original historical sources. Numerous studies suggest that current flood magnitudes are not unusual within the context of last 1000 years, with good examples for the rivers Rhine (Herget and Meurs, 2010;Wetter et al, 2011), Tiber (Calenda et al, 2005), Llobregat (Thorndycraft et al, 2005), Trent (Macdonald, 2013) and Gardon (Sheffer et al, 2008;Neppel et al, 2010). In general, the largest historical floods from the last 500 years show higher peak flows than the largest gauged floods (Fig.…”

Section: Discharge Of Historical Floods In the Context Of Instrumentamentioning

confidence: 96%

“…(b) Segura-Guadalentín rivers at Murcia (Barriendos and Rodrigo, 2006;Machado et al, 2011). (c) The River Gardon, documentary data since the 15th century, historical and daily water-level readings at Anduze (1741Anduze ( -2005Neppel et al, 2010), CAT: > 3000 m 3 s −1 ; EXT: 1000-3000 m 3 s −1 ; complemented with discharges from palaeofloods at La Baume (Sheffer et al, 2008). (d) The River Tiber in Rome, observed historical levels since the 12th century, continuous water-level readings since 1870 at the Ripetta Landing (Calenda et al, 2005), CAT: > 2900 m 3 s −1 (flood level > 17 m at Ripetta), EXT: 2300-2900 m 3 s −1 .…”

Section: Flood Magnitude Sensitivity To Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

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Quantitative historical hydrology in Europe

Benito

Brázdil

Herget

et al. 2015

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. In recent decades, the quantification of flood hydrological characteristics (peak discharge, hydrograph shape, and runoff volume) from documentary evidence has gained scientific recognition as a method to lengthen flood records of rare and extreme events. This paper describes the methodological evolution of quantitative historical hydrology under the influence of developments in hydraulics and statistics. In the 19th century, discharge calculations based on flood marks were the only source of hydrological data for engineering design, but were later left aside in favour of systematic gauge records and conventional hydrological procedures. In the last two decades, there has been growing scientific and public interest in understanding long-term patterns of rare floods, in maintaining the flood heritage and memory of extremes, and developing methods for deterministic and statistical application to different scientific and engineering problems. A compilation of 46 case studies across Europe with reconstructed discharges demonstrates that (1) in most cases present flood magnitudes are not unusual within the context of the last millennium, although recent floods may exceed past floods in some temperate European rivers (e.g. the Vltava and Po rivers); (2) the frequency of extreme floods has decreased since the 1950s, although some rivers (e.g. the Gardon and Ouse rivers) show a reactivation of rare events over the last two decades. There is a great potential for gaining understanding of individual extreme events based on a combined multiproxy approach (palaeoflood and documentary records) providing high-resolution time flood series and their environmental and climatic changes; and for developing non-systematic and non-stationary statistical models based on relations of past floods with external and internal covariates under natural low-frequency climate variability.

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Section: Flood Magnitude Sensitivity To Climate Changementioning

confidence: 94%

Section: Discharge Of Historical Floods In the Context Of Instrumentamentioning

confidence: 96%

Section: Flood Magnitude Sensitivity To Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

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Quantitative historical hydrology in Europe

Benito

Brázdil

Herget

et al. 2015

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Parent and Bernier 2003;Reis and Stedinger 2005;Neppel et al 2010). As discussed in Stedinger and Cohn (1986) the likelihood in Eq.…”

Section: The Inclusion Of Historical Data For Frequency Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

German tanks and historical records: the estimation of the time coverage of ungauged extreme events

Prosdocimi

2017

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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The use of historical data can significantly reduce the uncertainty around estimates of the magnitude of rare events obtained with extreme value statistical models. For historical data to be included in the statistical analysis a number of their properties, e.g. their number and magnitude, need to be known with a reasonable level of confidence. Another key aspect of the historical data which needs to be known is the coverage period of the historical information, i.e. the period of time over which it is assumed that all large events above a certain threshold are known. It might be the case though, that it is not possible to easily retrieve with sufficient confidence information on the coverage period, which therefore needs to be estimated. In this paper methods to perform such estimation are introduced and evaluated. The statistical definition of the problem corresponds to estimating the size of a population for which only few data points are available. This problem is generally refereed to as the German tanks problem, which arose during the second world war, when statistical estimates of the number of tanks available to the German army were obtained. Different estimators can be derived using different statistical estimation approaches, with the maximum spacing estimator being the minimum-variance unbiased estimator. The properties of three estimators are investigated by means of a simulation study, both for the simple estimation of the historical coverage and for the estimation of the extreme value statistical model. The maximum spacing estimator is confirmed to be a good approach to the estimation of the historical period coverage for practical use and its application for a case study in Britain is presented.

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“…La prise en compte de cette information supplémentaire dans l'estimation des paramètres d'une loi statistique (p.ex. loi GEV) permet de réduire les incertitudes sur l'estimation des quantiles rares (Naulet et al 2005, Neppel et al 2011, Payrastre et al 2011.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

La méthode SHYREG débit—application sur 1605 bassins versants en France métropolitaine

Aubert

Arnaud²,

Ribstein

et al. 2014

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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Résumé La méthode SHYREG est une approche développée pour la connaissance régionale de l'aléa pluvial (SHYREG pluie) et hydrologique (SHYREG débit) en tout point du territoire français. Elle est basée sur le couplage d'un générateur stochastique de pluie horaire et d'un modèle hydrologique. Cet article présente les résultats de la mise en oeuvre de la méthode sur 1605 bassins versants répartis sur la France métropolitaine. Sur les fréquences courantes (c.à.d. périodes de retour inférieures à 10 ans), la méthode restitue correctement les quantiles de débit de crue ajustés à une loi statistique sur les observations (loi GEV, selon le critère de NashSutcliffe). Plusieurs critères sont utilisés pour valider l'extrapolation des débits à des fréquences extrêmes: (a) en la confrontant à de longues chroniques de débits observés, (b) en analysant dans le modèle hydrologique la saturation du réservoir de production synonyme de comportement asymptotique avec les pluies, et (c) en étudiant la stabilité de la méthode à travers les critères statistiques.Mots clefs SHYREG ; aléa hydrologique ; générateur stochastique ; pluie-débit ; quantile de débit ; validation ; fréquenceThe SHYREG flow method-application to 1605 basins in metropolitan France Abstract The SHYREG method is a flood frequency analysis method that can be applied to any location in the French metropolitan territory for flood risk management. It is based on an hourly stochastic rainfall generator coupled with a simplified distributed rainfall-runoff model. This paper presents the validation of flood frequency estimates made using SHYREG for a wide range of 1605 French catchments. For current return periods (i.e. of up to 10 years), the SHYREG-estimated flood frequency values are consistent with estimates from the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution based on the Nash-Sutcliffe criterion. For extreme return periods, validation of flood frequency estimates is based on: (a) consistent peak and daily discharges estimated from a long observed flow record; (b) reasonable modelled saturation of the production storage for extreme events; and (c) studying the robustness of the SHYREG method by means of statistical criteria.

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Flood frequency analysis using historical data: accounting for random and systematic errors

Cited by 79 publications

References 39 publications

Quantitative historical hydrology in Europe

Quantitative historical hydrology in Europe

German tanks and historical records: the estimation of the time coverage of ungauged extreme events

La méthode SHYREG débit—application sur 1605 bassins versants en France métropolitaine

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