Flood frequency analysis on the Ardèche river using French documentary sources from the last two centuries

Naulet, R.; Lang, Michel; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; Cœur, Denis; Bobée, Bernard; Recking, Alain; Moussay, David

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.02.011

Cited by 102 publications

(85 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…There is often some trade-off between the length of the historical period for which information can be retrieved, and the level at which the perception threshold can be reliably fixed, as information on very large floods which happened in the far past might be available, but it would then be unclear what perception threshold could be used since it is assumed that all historical events in the sample are higher than X 0 . A possible approach to this would be to use varying perception threshold, as done for example in Naulet et al (2005), although this requires a very thorough study of the history of the catchment. Further, as mentioned earlier in the paper, considerations on the suitability of using information from a time in which the catchment was likely very different from its present form also need to be taken into account.…”

Section: Simulation Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

German tanks and historical records: the estimation of the time coverage of ungauged extreme events

Prosdocimi

2017

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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The use of historical data can significantly reduce the uncertainty around estimates of the magnitude of rare events obtained with extreme value statistical models. For historical data to be included in the statistical analysis a number of their properties, e.g. their number and magnitude, need to be known with a reasonable level of confidence. Another key aspect of the historical data which needs to be known is the coverage period of the historical information, i.e. the period of time over which it is assumed that all large events above a certain threshold are known. It might be the case though, that it is not possible to easily retrieve with sufficient confidence information on the coverage period, which therefore needs to be estimated. In this paper methods to perform such estimation are introduced and evaluated. The statistical definition of the problem corresponds to estimating the size of a population for which only few data points are available. This problem is generally refereed to as the German tanks problem, which arose during the second world war, when statistical estimates of the number of tanks available to the German army were obtained. Different estimators can be derived using different statistical estimation approaches, with the maximum spacing estimator being the minimum-variance unbiased estimator. The properties of three estimators are investigated by means of a simulation study, both for the simple estimation of the historical coverage and for the estimation of the extreme value statistical model. The maximum spacing estimator is confirmed to be a good approach to the estimation of the historical period coverage for practical use and its application for a case study in Britain is presented.

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Section: Simulation Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

German tanks and historical records: the estimation of the time coverage of ungauged extreme events

Prosdocimi

2017

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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“…The most common historical flood discharge calculations are applied to gradually varied flow conditions (Benito et al, 2003a;Lang et al, 2004;Naulet et al, 2005). River channel geometry is generally irregular in shape and surface roughness, resulting in non-uniform flow conditions.…”

Section: Discharge Estimation From Documentary Recordsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Many documentary-based flood studies shown that flood frequency has been influenced by the internal variability of atmospheric circulation, with flood clusters at some time periods (Glaser et al, 2010), or by impacts on the environmental patterns such as land use (Benito et al, 2010) and engineering works (Machado et al, 2015). A simple test of stationarity for censored samples (systematic and/or non-systematic) was proposed by Lang et al (1999) assuming that the flood series can be described by a homogenous Poisson process (Naulet et al, 2005). It is recommended to select a sample above a high discharge threshold in order to produce an exhaustive and homogeneous set, avoiding bias in relation with archive availability or flood risk exposure .…”

Section: Flood Frequency Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, the age uncertainty of numerical dating (radiocarbon respectively optically stimulated luminescence methods) used in palaeoflood studies may be refined based on known documentary floods (Medialdea et al, 2014). The SPHERE project has revealed the complementary of palaeoflood and historical flood information with major gain on the quality of past flood records in terms of time and discharge, as is demonstrated in the studies performed for the rivers Gardon (Naulet et al, 2005;Sheffer et al, 2008), Ardèche (Sheffer et al, 2003;Naulet et al, 2005), Llobregat (Thorndycraft et al, 2005), and Guadalentin (Benito et al, 2010;Medialdea et al, 2014). Recent palaeoflood reconstructions from floodplain sediments have analysed geochemical proxies from continuous alluvial records and investigate local documentary flood data to calibrate the palaeohydrological records (e.g.…”

Section: Multi-proxy Analysis Of Past Hydrological Extremesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Quantitative historical hydrology in Europe

Benito

Brázdil

Herget

et al. 2015

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. In recent decades, the quantification of flood hydrological characteristics (peak discharge, hydrograph shape, and runoff volume) from documentary evidence has gained scientific recognition as a method to lengthen flood records of rare and extreme events. This paper describes the methodological evolution of quantitative historical hydrology under the influence of developments in hydraulics and statistics. In the 19th century, discharge calculations based on flood marks were the only source of hydrological data for engineering design, but were later left aside in favour of systematic gauge records and conventional hydrological procedures. In the last two decades, there has been growing scientific and public interest in understanding long-term patterns of rare floods, in maintaining the flood heritage and memory of extremes, and developing methods for deterministic and statistical application to different scientific and engineering problems. A compilation of 46 case studies across Europe with reconstructed discharges demonstrates that (1) in most cases present flood magnitudes are not unusual within the context of the last millennium, although recent floods may exceed past floods in some temperate European rivers (e.g. the Vltava and Po rivers); (2) the frequency of extreme floods has decreased since the 1950s, although some rivers (e.g. the Gardon and Ouse rivers) show a reactivation of rare events over the last two decades. There is a great potential for gaining understanding of individual extreme events based on a combined multiproxy approach (palaeoflood and documentary records) providing high-resolution time flood series and their environmental and climatic changes; and for developing non-systematic and non-stationary statistical models based on relations of past floods with external and internal covariates under natural low-frequency climate variability.

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“…La prise en compte de cette information supplémentaire dans l'estimation des paramètres d'une loi statistique (p.ex. loi GEV) permet de réduire les incertitudes sur l'estimation des quantiles rares (Naulet et al 2005, Neppel et al 2011, Payrastre et al 2011.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

La méthode SHYREG débit—application sur 1605 bassins versants en France métropolitaine

Aubert

Arnaud²,

Ribstein

et al. 2014

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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Résumé La méthode SHYREG est une approche développée pour la connaissance régionale de l'aléa pluvial (SHYREG pluie) et hydrologique (SHYREG débit) en tout point du territoire français. Elle est basée sur le couplage d'un générateur stochastique de pluie horaire et d'un modèle hydrologique. Cet article présente les résultats de la mise en oeuvre de la méthode sur 1605 bassins versants répartis sur la France métropolitaine. Sur les fréquences courantes (c.à.d. périodes de retour inférieures à 10 ans), la méthode restitue correctement les quantiles de débit de crue ajustés à une loi statistique sur les observations (loi GEV, selon le critère de NashSutcliffe). Plusieurs critères sont utilisés pour valider l'extrapolation des débits à des fréquences extrêmes: (a) en la confrontant à de longues chroniques de débits observés, (b) en analysant dans le modèle hydrologique la saturation du réservoir de production synonyme de comportement asymptotique avec les pluies, et (c) en étudiant la stabilité de la méthode à travers les critères statistiques.Mots clefs SHYREG ; aléa hydrologique ; générateur stochastique ; pluie-débit ; quantile de débit ; validation ; fréquenceThe SHYREG flow method-application to 1605 basins in metropolitan France Abstract The SHYREG method is a flood frequency analysis method that can be applied to any location in the French metropolitan territory for flood risk management. It is based on an hourly stochastic rainfall generator coupled with a simplified distributed rainfall-runoff model. This paper presents the validation of flood frequency estimates made using SHYREG for a wide range of 1605 French catchments. For current return periods (i.e. of up to 10 years), the SHYREG-estimated flood frequency values are consistent with estimates from the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution based on the Nash-Sutcliffe criterion. For extreme return periods, validation of flood frequency estimates is based on: (a) consistent peak and daily discharges estimated from a long observed flow record; (b) reasonable modelled saturation of the production storage for extreme events; and (c) studying the robustness of the SHYREG method by means of statistical criteria.

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Flood frequency analysis on the Ardèche river using French documentary sources from the last two centuries

Cited by 102 publications

References 9 publications

German tanks and historical records: the estimation of the time coverage of ungauged extreme events

German tanks and historical records: the estimation of the time coverage of ungauged extreme events

Quantitative historical hydrology in Europe

La méthode SHYREG débit—application sur 1605 bassins versants en France métropolitaine

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