First step towards preventing losses due to mechanical damage from abnormal actions: Knowledge-based forecasting the actions

Vaidogas, Egidijus Rytas

doi:10.1016/j.jlp.2005.10.002

Cited by 18 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…The possible DFL can be calculated using the aforementioned formula after investigating a building's fire risk. This information would facilitate the proprietor and insurance company making better financial management decisions and producing research to improve a building's fire safety plan by demonstrating the economics of fire prevention (Vaidogas 2006). In the future, this study will enlarge the number of investigated fires, as well as adopting fire loss calculation formulae and fire simulation programs used in other countries.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Constructing an anticipation formula for fire loss in factory-type

Chi

Shu

2012

Journal of the Chinese Institute of Engineers

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The before fire assessment data from the ARC fire risk assessment system and the financial loss from post-fire damage report for factory-type buildings located in Taiwan were collected. The correlation between assessment data and degree of fire loss (DFL) was calculated by three regression analyses -linear, power, and exponential equations -to produce an anticipation formula. The results revealed that there is more a believable prediction when the fire loss is bigger, regardless of the amount of fire loss or the DFL, while the latter is more related to the assessment grade. By providing proprietors and insurance companies detailed fire risk analysis showing predictable financial loss, it is advantageous for budget management and fire protection, enforcement and should result in the reduction of fire risk and subsequent damage to factory-type buildings.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Constructing an anticipation formula for fire loss in factory-type

Chi

Shu

2012

Journal of the Chinese Institute of Engineers

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“…In QRA, the uncertainty related to a model's accuracy is expressed by means of epistemic probability distributions (Zio and Apostolakis, 1996;USNRC, 1997). The epistemic uncertainties related to models 1 to 6 can be propagated by applying a nested loop procedure (Aven and Rettedal, 1998;Vaidogas, 2005Vaidogas, , 2006. The final result of the propagation will be distributions of the epistemic random variablesp f (x i ).…”

Section: Mas With Uncertain Failure Probabilitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multiattribute Selection from Alternative Designs of Infrastructure Components for Accidental Situations

Zavadskas

Vaidogas

2009

Computer aided Civil Eng

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The design of infrastructure systems for "accidental" situations, i.e., abnormal service conditions, may include a comparison of alternative design solutions of system components. These solutions are compared by means of applying a universal methodology known as a multiattribute selection (MAS). The alternative designs are described by a number of attributes that characterize each of them. Failure probability and quantitative measure of the risk are used as safety-related attributes of the alternative designs. This article shows how to carry out the MAS in the presence of epistemic uncertainties in safety-related attributes. Distributions of epistemic uncertainties are specified by means of methods used for quantitative risk assessment. The MAS is carried out as a propagation of these uncertainties. The Monte Carlo simulation is used to propagate uncertainties through the algorithm of MAS. The approach proposed in this article is illustrated by two examples, which consider alternative designs of a protective barrier and alternative sprinkler systems.

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“…The models of BLEVE effects cover blast, fireballs, and projection of fragments (projectiles) (e.g., CCPS 1994;Casal 2007). Most of these models are strictly deterministic; some models include probabilistic elements (Hauptmanns 2001;Vaidogas 2006;Mébarki et al 2009;Nguyen et al 2009). The key input information of them is of geometric nature.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation-Based Predicting the Position of Road Tank Explosions. Part I: Data and Models

Vaidogas

Linkutė

Stulgys³

2012

Transport

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Road tankers used for the transportation of flammable liquids and liquefied gases can be involved in accidents which escalate into fires and the so-called boiling liquid expanding vapour explosions. The damaging effects of these phenomena on roadside property depend on the position and orientation of exploding tanks in relation to vulnerable roadside objects. This study presents a simulation-based approach to the prediction of the position of road tank explosions. The position is expressed by longitudinal and transverse rest position of an exploding tank as well as departure angle of the tank. As a part of this study, data on transverse rest position and departure angle was collected and used to fit probability distributions which express uncertainties in these circumstantial characteristics of road tank accidents. It was found that data on the longitudinal rest position is difficult to obtain and modelling this accident characteristic will have to rely on a subjective specification of probability distributions. Such distributions can be chosen by applying approaches used in the field of quantitative risk assessment. Probability distributions, partly subjective and partly based on hard data, are applied to simulate values of potential explosion coordinates. The simulation results have the premise to be applied to forecasting mechanical and thermal effects of explosions on road and assessing damage from them. A case study used to evaluate the performance of the models proposed in this study is presented in the second part of the paper.

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First step towards preventing losses due to mechanical damage from abnormal actions: Knowledge-based forecasting the actions

Cited by 18 publications

References 23 publications

Constructing an anticipation formula for fire loss in factory-type

Constructing an anticipation formula for fire loss in factory-type

Multiattribute Selection from Alternative Designs of Infrastructure Components for Accidental Situations

Simulation-Based Predicting the Position of Road Tank Explosions. Part I: Data and Models

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