Simulation-Based Predicting the Position of Road Tank Explosions. Part I: Data and Models

Abstract

Road tankers used for the transportation of flammable liquids and liquefied gases can be involved in accidents which escalate into fires and the so-called boiling liquid expanding vapour explosions. The damaging effects of these phenomena on roadside property depend on the position and orientation of exploding tanks in relation to vulnerable roadside objects. This study presents a simulation-based approach to the prediction of the position of road tank explosions. The position is expressed by longitudinal and transverse rest position of an exploding tank as well as departure angle of the tank. As a part of this study, data on transverse rest position and departure angle was collected and used to fit probability distributions which express uncertainties in these circumstantial characteristics of road tank accidents. It was found that data on the longitudinal rest position is difficult to obtain and modelling this accident characteristic will have to rely on a subjective specification of probability distributions. Such distributions can be chosen by applying approaches used in the field of quantitative risk assessment. Probability distributions, partly subjective and partly based on hard data, are applied to simulate values of potential explosion coordinates. The simulation results have the premise to be applied to forecasting mechanical and thermal effects of explosions on road and assessing damage from them. A case study used to evaluate the performance of the models proposed in this study is presented in the second part of the paper.

A Probabilistic Design of Sacrificial Cladding for a Blast Wall Using Limited Statistical Information on Blast Loading

“…The estimation of the SC failure probability P f will be illustrated for a blast wall intended to protect against a railway tank car explosion known as boilingliquid expanding vapour explosion BLEVE [36,37]. The tank car is used for a transportation of liquefied propane.…”

Toxicity Research of Smouldering and Flaming Pine Timber Treated With Fire Retardant Solutions

“…Timber (Šaučiuvėnas et al 2011;Kängsepp et al 2011;Bednarek et al 2009;Juodeikienė 2009;Bednarek, Kaliszuk-Wietecka 2007), fire retardants (Glenn et al 2012;Babrauskas et al 2011;Gałaj et al 2011a;Grigonis et al 2011;Karpovič et al 2010;Karpovič 2009;Vobolis, Albrektas 2009;Pereyra, Giudice 2009;Półka 2008), timber treated with fire retardant solutions in connection with its toxicity during combustion (Gałaj et al 2011b;Šukys, Kar-povič 2010;Karpovič, Šukys 2009;Paul et al 2008;Lestari et al 2006) and computer modelling for combustion (Capote et al 2012;Keshavarz et al 2012;Fouladgar et al 2012;Vaidogas et al 2012;Cheng, Hadjisophocleous 2011;Gałaj 2009) have been already analysed in the field of fire safety. However the toxicity of smouldering and flaming pine timber which is non-treated and treated with fire retardant solutions has not yet been studied within an integrated approach.…”

Simulation-Based Predicting the Position of Road Tank Explosions. Part Ii: A Case Study

“…Probabilistic models expressing the uncertainties related to position and orientation of the tank car after a traffic accident were proposed in the first part of this study (Vaidogas et al 2012). The second part demonstrates how to apply these models to a stochastic simu-lation of a tank rest position coordinates and departure angles.…”

“…The present paper uses symbols, nomenclature and acronyms introduced in the first part of the study (Vaidogas et al 2012). The prime aim of the paper is to evaluate the performance of the accident prediction model proposed in the first part.…”

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A case study describing a simulation-based prediction of geometric characteristics of a road tank accident is presented. The case study evaluates the performance of the accident prediction model proposed in the first part of this study (Vaidogas et al 2012). The prediction of accident characteristics is decomposed into three tasks: (i) prediction of the longitudinal rest position of the tank vehicle within the road segment under analysis; (ii) prediction of the transverse rest position with respect to road centreline; and (iii) prediction of the departure angle of the tank.

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