Fire in the Southern Appalachians: understanding impacts, interventions, and future fire events

James, Natasha A.; Abt, Karen L.; Frey, Gregory E.; Han, Xue; Prestemon, Jeffrey P.

doi:10.2737/srs-gtr-249

Cited by 8 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…Our results run contrary to prior projections of area burned under climate change in the southern Appalachians (Prestemon et al, 2016, James et al, 2020. These studies suggested that the total area burned would likely decline over the next 50 years under the CMIP3 models, MIROC32, CSIROMK35, and CGCM31 (scenarios AB1, A2, and B2).…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 99%

The fire regimes of the Southern Appalachians may radically shift under climate change.

Robbins

Loudermilk

Mozelewski

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Background: Increased drought due to climate change will alter fire regimes in mesic forested landscapes where fuel moisture typically limits fire spread, and where fuel loads are consistently high. These landscapes are often extensively modified by human land use change and management. We forecast the influence of varying climate scenarios on potential shifts in the wildfire regime across the mesic forests of the Southern Appalachians. This area has a long history of fire exclusion, land use change, and an expanding wildland urban interface. We considered interactions among climate, vegetation, and anthropogenic influences to forecast future fire regimes and changes to the forest structure. We used climate scenarios representing divergent drought patterns (overall drought trend and interannual variability) within a process-based fire model that captures the influence of climate, fuels, and fire ignition patterns and suppression. Results: Compared to simulations using historical climate (1972-2018), future total burned area (2020-2100) increased by 42.3 % under high drought variability, 104.8 % under a substantial increase in drought severity, and 484.7 % when combined. Landscape patterns of fire exclusion and suppression drove the spatial variability of fire return intervals (FRI). Our projections indicate wide spatial variability in future fire regimes with some areas experiencing multiple fires per decade while others experience no fire. More frequent fires corresponded with increased oak prevalence and a reduction in the biomass of mesic hardwoods and maple; however, mesic hardwoods remained prevalent under all fire intervals because of their contemporary dominance. Conclusions: Our study illustrates how future drought-fire-management interactions and a history of fire exclusion could alter future fire regimes and tree species composition. We find that increasing trends in drought magnitude and variability may increase wildfire activity, particularly in areas with minimal fire suppression. In ecosystems where fuel moisture (and not load) is the standard limitation to fire spread, increased pulses of drought may provide the conditions for more fire activity, regardless of effects on fuel loading. We conclude the effects of climate and human management will determine the novel conditions for both fire regime and ecosystem structure.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 99%

The fire regimes of the Southern Appalachians may radically shift under climate change.

Robbins

Loudermilk

Mozelewski

et al. 2023

Preprint

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show abstract

“…In late 2016, a series of over 20 wildfires occurred in the Southeastern U.S. These fires, present across Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, and Tennessee, burned in excess of 150,000 acres between October 2016 and January 2017, largely fueled by extreme drought conditions (James et al., 2020 ). Because this event had a substantial effect on air quality across the region, it offers a unique opportunity to explore the impacts of wildfire smoke on human health.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainty in Health Impact Assessments of Smoke From a Wildfire Event

Johnson

Garcia–Menendez

2022

GeoHealth

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Wildfires cause elevated air pollution that can be detrimental to human health. However, health impact assessments associated with emissions from wildfire events are subject to uncertainty arising from different sources. Here, we quantify and compare major uncertainties in mortality and morbidity outcomes of exposure to fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) pollution estimated for a series of wildfires in the Southeastern U.S. We present an approach to compare uncertainty in estimated health impacts specifically due to two driving factors, wildfire‐related smoke PM 2.5 fields and variability in concentration‐response parameters from epidemiologic studies of ambient and smoke PM 2.5 . This analysis, focused on the 2016 Southeastern wildfires, suggests that emissions from these fires had public health consequences in North Carolina. Using several methods based on publicly available monitor data and atmospheric models to represent wildfire‐attributable PM 2.5 , we estimate impacts on several health outcomes and quantify associated uncertainty. Multiple concentration‐response parameters derived from studies of ambient and wildfire‐specific PM 2.5 are used to assess health‐related uncertainty. Results show large variability and uncertainty in wildfire impact estimates, with comparable uncertainties due to the smoke pollution fields and health response parameters for some outcomes, but substantially larger health‐related uncertainty for several outcomes. Consideration of these uncertainties can support efforts to improve estimates of wildfire impacts and inform fire‐related decision‐making.

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“…Los gerentes forestales realizan incendios controlados de baja intensidad, conocidos como quemas prescritas, para reducir la cantidad de madera muerta y vegetación, con lo que manejan el riesgo de incendios forestales 258 . Mientras que los impactos de los incendios forestales sobre la calidad del aire son ampliamente reconocidos (KM 14.2), se sabe menos sobre los impactos de las quemas prescritas frente a los incendios forestales sobre la calidad del aire 246,259 .…”

Section: Peligro De Incendiounclassified

Cap. 22. Sureste. En: La Quinta Evaluación Nacional del Clima

2023

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Fire in the Southern Appalachians: understanding impacts, interventions, and future fire events

Abstract: We would like to thank Joseph Roise, Bill Cary, and Changyou Edwin Sun for their feedback and review of the research presented in chapters 2 and 3 of this report.

Cited by 8 publications

References 5 publications

The fire regimes of the Southern Appalachians may radically shift under climate change.

The fire regimes of the Southern Appalachians may radically shift under climate change.

Uncertainty in Health Impact Assessments of Smoke From a Wildfire Event

Cap. 22. Sureste. En: La Quinta Evaluación Nacional del Clima

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