Uncertainty in Health Impact Assessments of Smoke From a Wildfire Event

Abstract

Wildfires cause elevated air pollution that can be detrimental to human health. However, health impact assessments associated with emissions from wildfire events are subject to uncertainty arising from different sources. Here, we quantify and compare major uncertainties in mortality and morbidity outcomes of exposure to fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) pollution estimated for a series of wildfires in the Southeastern U.S. We present an approach to compare uncertainty in estimated health impacts specifically due to two driving factors, wildfire‐related smoke PM 2.5 fields and variability in concentration‐response parameters from epidemiologic studies of ambient and smoke PM 2.5 . This analysis, focused on the 2016 Southeastern wildfires, suggests that emissions from these fires had public health consequences in North Carolina. Using several methods based on publicly available monitor data and atmospheric models to represent wildfire‐attributable PM 2.5 , we estimate impacts on several health outcomes and quantify associated uncertainty. Multiple concentration‐response parameters derived from studies of ambient and wildfire‐specific PM 2.5 are used to assess health‐related uncertainty. Results show large variability and uncertainty in wildfire impact estimates, with comparable uncertainties due to the smoke pollution fields and health response parameters for some outcomes, but substantially larger health‐related uncertainty for several outcomes. Consideration of these uncertainties can support efforts to improve estimates of wildfire impacts and inform fire‐related decision‐making.

Excess prenatal loss and respiratory illnesses of infant macaques living outdoors and exposed to wildfire smoke

“…While in pregnancy, individuals can experience physiologic changes, including higher respiratory rates, that may make them more susceptible to exposure itself (Stone et al, 2019). Consistent with other evidence, this data also supports short‐term, acute exposure can exert a powerful impact on health (Johnson & Garcia‐Menendez, 2022). The drastic change in the rate of macaque pregnancy loss in the year 2020 compared to 2014–2019 demonstrated here is an extreme example of the potential causal link between wildfire smoke and detrimental health effects in pregnancy.…”

Potential Health Impacts from a Wildfire Smoke Plume over Region Jämtland Härjedalen, Sweden

“…In previous health impact assessments, different methods have been used to estimate the actual exposure to smoke at higher concentrations and in larger populations [30]. We aimed to study a "worst-case scenario" in this sparsely populated region.…”

Fire in the Earth System: Introduction to the Special Collection

“…They then modeled the effects on intensive care unit (ICU) resources of a simulated severe smoke event and predicted that ICU bed utilization could exceed 130%, indicating the need for hospitals to prepare additional critical-care resources when major wildfire smoke is forecast. However, estimating or projecting health impacts (e.g., respiratory-illness hospitalizations, premature deaths, and lost days of work) based on smoke PM 2.5 has substantial uncertainties, as Johnson and Garcia-Menendez (2022) showed for 2016 Southern Appalachian fires: uncertainty in impact estimates due to wildfire smoke spatial fields can be as high as 40%-50%, and greater for some morbidity outcomes (such as asthma hospitalizations). As part of the 2019 FIREX-AQ campaign, Dickinson et al (2022) studied human health-risk implications from more than 100 volatile organic compounds in the smoke of three different wildfires in Idaho and Washington.…”