Fire Following the HayWired Scenario Mainshock

Scawthorn, Charles; Cox, Dale W.

doi:10.3133/sir20175013p

Cited by 2 publications

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“…In particular, these ignitions, if not suppressed quickly, can develop into large fires that are more difficult to contain, which are commonly referred to as multiple‐alarm fires (i.e., fires that require multiple engine companies to be called to the scene), and may spread resulting in major conflagrations that can destroy several city blocks. This process has been observed in previous earthquakes in California such as the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, 59 the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, 60 and the 1994 Northridge earthquake 61 and has been explicitly modeled for earthquake scenarios on the Hayward Fault 62 and the Southern San Andreas Fault 63 …”

Section: Examples Of Applicationmentioning

confidence: 88%

Regional‐risk‐targeted seismic design: A novel approach for earthquake resistant design

Heresi

Miranda

2023

Earthq Engng Struct Dyn

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Current seismic design codes define safety levels based on the seismic risk of individual structures, such as specifying a maximum probability of collapse in 50 years. The design remains the same whether the structure is located within a sparsely populated area or within a densely populated area provided that both areas have the same seismic hazard. A novel seismic design approach, referred to as regional‐risk‐targeted seismic design is proposed in which the design level is based on a target seismic risk at the regional scale, as opposed to at the individual structure level. The proposed approach, which is aimed at new constructions, allows local governments to define acceptable levels of regional seismic risk and modify the seismic design criteria contained in national standards to satisfy them. As the possible consequences of a seismic event increase at the regional level, the design level becomes more stringent to control the regional seismic risk to acceptable limits. A series of simplifications are considered to facilitate its application. We illustrate the application of the proposed regional‐risk‐targeted seismic design with three examples in the city of San Francisco, California. In these examples, we iteratively compute the modifications to the maximum seismic risk on individual structures required to comply with specific target levels of regional seismic risk. In the proposed approach, the maximum tolerable seismic risk in individual structures depends not only on the seismic hazard at the site, but also on the number of structures and density in the region of interest. It is concluded that the proposed seismic design approach provides a more rational tool for local government officials to set and calibrate seismic design criteria to comply with their locally‐defined acceptable levels of regional seismic risks within a probabilistic risk management framework.

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Section: Examples Of Applicationmentioning

confidence: 88%

Regional‐risk‐targeted seismic design: A novel approach for earthquake resistant design

Heresi

Miranda

2023

Earthq Engng Struct Dyn

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“…Many simplified methods assume that water pipelines can be replaced by street centerlines, e.g., [11,48]. However, when the research aim is to estimate water supply needs-rather than water pipeline damage and repair-we need only focus on the population that is impacted.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Simplified Method for Rapid Estimation of Emergency Water Supply Needs after Earthquakes

Toland¹,

Wein

2021

Water

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Researchers are investigating the problem of estimating households with potable water service outages soon after an earthquake. Most of these modeling approaches are computationally intensive, have large proprietary data collection requirements or lack precision, making them unfeasible for rapid assessment, prioritization, and allocation of emergency water resources in large, complex disasters. This study proposes a new simplified analytical method—performed without proprietary water pipeline data—to estimate water supply needs after earthquakes, and a case study of its application in the HayWired earthquake scenario. In the HayWired scenario—a moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Area, California (USA)—an analysis of potable water supply in two water utility districts was performed using the University of Colorado Water Network (CUWNet) model. In the case study, application of the simplified method extends these estimates of household water service outage to the nine counties adjacent to the San Francisco Bay, aggregated by a ~250 m2 (nine-arcsecond) grid. The study estimates about 1.38 million households (3.7 million residents) out of 7.6 million residents (2017, ambient, nighttime population) with potable water service outage soon after the earthquake—about an 8% increase from the HayWired scenario estimates.

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Fire Following the HayWired Scenario Mainshock

Cited by 2 publications

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Regional‐risk‐targeted seismic design: A novel approach for earthquake resistant design

Regional‐risk‐targeted seismic design: A novel approach for earthquake resistant design

A Simplified Method for Rapid Estimation of Emergency Water Supply Needs after Earthquakes

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