Finland’s Dependence on Russian Energy—Mutually Beneficial Trade Relations or an Energy Security Threat?

Abstract

Studies on energy security in the context of relations between European Union (EU) and Russia tend to focus on cases, with an open conflict related to supply, such as “hard” energy weapons, or on only one fuel, often natural gas. However, there is a need to understand the long-term impacts that energy relations have politically, economically and physically, and their linkages between resilience, sustainability and security. We analyse the Finnish-Russian energy relations as a case study, as they are characterised by a non-conflictual relationship. To assess this complex relationship, we apply the interdependence framework to analyse both the energy systems and energy strategies of Finland and Russia, and the energy security issues related to the notable import dependence on one supplier. Moreover, we analyse the plausible development of the energy trade between the countries in three different energy policy scenarios until 2040. The findings of the article shed light on how the trends in energy markets, climate change mitigation and broader societal and political trends could influence Russia’s energy trade relations with countries, such as Finland. Our analysis shows that Finland’s dependence on primary energy imports does not pose an acute energy security threat in terms of sheer supply, and the dependence is unlikely to worsen in the future. However, due to the difficulty in anticipating societal, political, and economic trends, there are possible developments that could affect Finland.

Studying the Level of Sustainable Energy Development of the European Union Countries and Their Similarity Based on the Economic and Demographic Potential

“…This country has developed a hybrid energy structure that allows for a high degree of diversification of primary energy sources. Four types of fuel have a share of over 15% in Finland's energy balance: crude oil, renewable energy, nuclear energy, and hard coal [88]. Finland is the third country in the EU (after Belgium and Sweden) in terms of total available energy from alternative energy sources per capita of the country, and the second-per 1 million Euro of GDP (after Latvia).…”

Severe Drought in Finland: Modeling Effects on Water Resources and Assessing Climate Change Impacts

“…Water resources are also important, as water-intensive industries, such as the paper and pulp industry, are rather extensively practiced in Finland. Approximately 10-20% of electricity is produced by hydropower [28], which is also important in balancing energy production [29].…”

Readiness of Small Energy Markets and Electric Power Grids to Global Health Crises: Lessons From the COVID-19 Pandemic

“…Specifically, we show that in the Israeli grid the low consumption during the pandemic caused significant deviations of the frequency from its nominal value. However, this was not the case in the Finnish grid, probably since Finland trades significantly more power with its neighbors (most prominently Russia, Sweden, and Estonia) [15]. Moreover, we show that the low consumption raised the relative share of renewable energy sources in Israel, which caused a number of adverse effects:…”