Financial Stability and the Fed: Evidence from Congressional Hearings

Wischnewsky, Arina; Jansen, David‐Jan; Neuenkirch, Matthias

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3422238

SSRN Journal

2019

DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3422238

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Financial Stability and the Fed: Evidence from Congressional Hearings

Arina Wischnewsky

David‐Jan Jansen

Matthias Neuenkirch

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Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 12 publications

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“…They provide evidence that publishing verbatim transcripts of the FOMC meetings made members more reluctant to offer dissenting opinions, supporting the prediction in the theory literature of increased conformity. More recent work examines the effect of the 1993 natural experiment by using computational linguistics to analyze the FOMC's transcripts, some of which also find support for the conformity effect (Schonhardt‐Bailey 2013, Acosta 2015, Egesdal, Gill, and Rotemberg 2015, Peek, Rosengren, and Tootell 2016, Woolley and Gardner 2017, Wischnewsky, Jansen, and Neuenkirch 2021). Hansen, McMahon, and Prat (2018) find evidence for both effects, but conclude that the discipline effect dominates.…”

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confidence: 99%

How Much Information Do Monetary Policy Committees Disclose? Evidence from the FOMC's Minutes and Transcripts

Apel¹,

Grimaldi²,

Hull³

2021

J of Money Credit Banking

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The purpose of central bank minutes is to give an account of monetary policy meeting discussions to outside observers, thereby enabling them to draw informed conclusions about future policy. However, minutes are by necessity a shortened and edited representation of a broader discussion. Consequently, they may omit information that is predictive of future policy decisions. To investigate this, we compare the information content of the FOMC's minutes and transcripts, focusing on three dimensions which are likely to be excluded from the minutes: 1) the committee's degree of hawkishness; 2) the chairperson's degree of hawkishness; and 3) the level of agreement between committee members. We measure committee and chairperson hawkishness with a novel dictionary that is constructed using the FOMC's minutes and transcripts. We measure agreement by performing deep transfer learning, a technique that involves training a deep learning model on one set of documents -U.S. congressional debates -and then making predictions on another: FOMC transcripts. Our findings suggest that transcripts are more informative than minutes and heightened committee agreement typically precedes policy rate increases.

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

How Much Information Do Monetary Policy Committees Disclose? Evidence from the FOMC's Minutes and Transcripts

Apel¹,

Grimaldi²,

Hull³

2021

J of Money Credit Banking

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The ECB press conference statement: deriving a new sentiment indicator for the euro area

Kanelis,

Siklos

2024

Int. J Fin Econ

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We analyse the introductory statements of the ECB president and derive new sentiment indicators for the euro area based on a novel approach. To evaluate sentiment, we utilize a Large Language Model, namely FinBERT, which classifies the verbal sentiment of economics and finance‐related textual data. We find that the ECB's conveyed sentiment about monetary policy, which is influenced by the economic outlook and the state of the euro area macroeconomy as expressed in speeches, plays a significant role in shaping the content of press conferences following a governing council decision. In contrast, speech sentiment regarding financial stability does not significantly influence introductory statements.

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Financial Stability and the Fed: Evidence from Congressional Hearings

Cited by 2 publications

References 12 publications

How Much Information Do Monetary Policy Committees Disclose? Evidence from the FOMC's Minutes and Transcripts

How Much Information Do Monetary Policy Committees Disclose? Evidence from the FOMC's Minutes and Transcripts

The ECB press conference statement: deriving a new sentiment indicator for the euro area

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