Fewer Troughs, Not More Ridges, Have Led to a Drying Trend in the Western United States

Zhang, Wei; Hari, Vittal; Wang, Shih-Yu; LaPlante, Matthew D.; Garfin, Gregg M.; Affram, Grace; Kumar, Rohini

doi:10.1029/2021gl097089

Cited by 16 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 47 publications

(80 reference statements)

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“…The similarity of the six panels of figure 4 among themselves, with figure 1(b), and with the corresponding panels of figure S16 of the SM (which are constructed using the actual return levels of the 2021 WNAHW) provides a visual confirmation of what mentioned above. In meteorological terms, the possibly most striking common features between the model data and the actual 2021 WNAHW are (a) the presence of a wavetrain across the Pacific ocean [20], which closely resembles the anomaly pattern deemed responsible for drought over California [68]; and (b) the powerful ridge in the mid-latitudes extending from the Pacific over the Rockies, which reminds of the pattern that which is associated with the occurrence of intense drought in the Western US [17,[68][69][70].…”

Section: Fingerprinting the 2021 Wnahwmentioning

confidence: 80%

“…Between late June and mid-July 2021 a large latitudinal band of the western sector of North America faced a very intense heatwave, in the context of the ongoing megadrought in the region [16,17]. Several new temperature records were established: 49.6 • C were measured in Lytton, which is the new absolute temperature record for 2-m temperature (T2M) for Canada.…”

Section: The 2021 Western North America Heatwavementioning

confidence: 99%

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Typicality of the 2021 Western North America summer heatwave

Lucarini

Gálfi

Messori

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Elucidating the statistical properties of extreme meteo-climatic events and capturing the physical processes responsible for their occurrence are key steps for improving our understanding of climate variability and climate change and for better evaluating the associated hazards. It has recently become apparent that large deviation theory is very useful for investigating persistent extreme events, and specifically, for flexibly estimating long return periods and for introducing a notion of dynamical typicality. Using a methodological framework based on large deviation theory and taking advantage of long simulations by a state-of-the-art Earth System Model, we investigate the 2021 North America Heatwave. Indeed, our analysis shows that the 2021 event can be seen as an unlikely but possible manifestation of climate variability, whilst its probability of occurrence is greatly amplified by the ongoing climate change. We also clarify the properties of spatial coherence of the 2021 heatwave and elucidate the role played by the Rocky Mountains in modulating hot, dry, and persistent extreme events in the Western Pacific region of North America.

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Section: Fingerprinting the 2021 Wnahwmentioning

confidence: 80%

Section: The 2021 Western North America Heatwavementioning

confidence: 99%

Typicality of the 2021 Western North America summer heatwave

Lucarini

Gálfi

Messori

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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show abstract

“…1 provides a visual confirmation of what mentioned above. In meteorological terms, the possibly most striking common features between the model data and the actual 2021 WNAHW are a) the presence of a wavetrain across the Pacific ocean [18], which closely resembles the anomaly pattern deemed responsible for drought over California [48]; and b) the powerful ridge in the mid-latitudes extending from the Pacific over the Rockies, which reminds of the strong anomaly pattern associated with the occurrence of intense drought in the Western US, specifically, the Pacific west coast ridge [15,[48][49][50].…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 73%

“…The 2021 Western North America Heatwave Between late June and mid-July 2021 a large latitudinal band of the the western sector of North America experienced a very intense heatwave, in the context of the ongoing megadrought in the region [14,15]. Several new temperature records were established, including the absolute temperature record for air temperature at 2 meters above the surface (TAS) for Canada of 49.6 • C, measured in Lytton.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Typicality of the 2021 Western North America Summer Heatwave

Lucarini,

Galfi,

Messori

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Elucidating the statistical properties of extreme meteo-climatic events and capturing the physical processes responsible for their occurrence are key steps for improving our understanding of climate variability and climate change and for better evaluating the associated hazards. Using a methodological framework based on large deviation theory and taking advantage of long simulations by a state-of-the-art Earth System Model, we investigate the 2021 North America Heatwave. It has recently become apparent that large deviation theory is very useful for investigating persistent extreme events, and specifically, for flexibly estimating long return periods and for introducing a notion of dynamical typicality. Indeed, our analysis shows that the 2021 event is not an exception -a Dragon King -and can be seen as an unlikely but possible manifestation of climate variability, whilst its probability of occurrence is greatly amplified by the ongoing climate change. We also clarify the properties of spatial coherence of the 2021 heatwave and elucidate the role played by the Rocky Mountains in modulating hot, dry, and persistent extreme events in the Western Pacific region of North America.

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“…(2020). While circulation patterns play a crucial role in modulating droughts and extreme precipitation events (Swain, 2015; Wang et al., 2017; Zhang et al., 2022), what is currently unknown, is the role of anthropogenic forcing in driving the 2021 extreme HYINT event and the relative contributions from precipitation intensity, dry spell length (DSL), as well as anthropogenic forcing (Mankin et al., 2021). Hence this study assessed the contribution that anthropogenic forcing played with regard to the 2021 extreme western US hydrological intensity in addition to investigating underlying mechanisms.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Anthropogenic Forcing in Western United States Hydroclimate Extremes

Zhang

Gillies

2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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The western U.S. is in the midst of a so-called megadrought that is further complicated by heat waves, wildfires, flash flooding events and air quality issues (Liu et al., 2016;Mankin et al., 2021;Mote et al., 2018). The recent "precipitation roller coaster" in the western states in 2020/2021 has pointed to a rising amplitude of the hydrological cycle that is, the contrast between dry and wet states, known as the hydroclimatic intensity (

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Fewer Troughs, Not More Ridges, Have Led to a Drying Trend in the Western United States

Abstract: The western United States is enduring a prolonged and intense drought, dubbed by a "megadrought," with historically destructive impacts on ecological and agricultural systems (

Cited by 16 publications

References 47 publications

Typicality of the 2021 Western North America summer heatwave

Typicality of the 2021 Western North America summer heatwave

Typicality of the 2021 Western North America Summer Heatwave

The Role of Anthropogenic Forcing in Western United States Hydroclimate Extremes

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