Fertility Reactions to the "Great Recession" in Europe

Goldstein, Joshua R.; Kreyenfeld, Michaela; Jasilioniene, Aiva; Örsal, Deniz Dilan Karaman

doi:10.4054/demres.2013.29.4

Cited by 237 publications

(226 citation statements)

References 15 publications

(16 reference statements)

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“…However, most analyses have found a negative relationship between different measures of unemployment and first births both in long time series (Rindfuss et al 1988) and for recent periods (De Cooman et al 1987 Goldstein et al 2013). The association between unemployment and fertility is complex and heterogeneous across age, parity, institutional frameworks (labour regulation, types of contracts, unemployment benefits) and the length and acuteness of economic shocks, as these factors mediate opportunity costs of having children.…”

Section: Employment Economic Uncertainty and Fertilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This is in line with a pro-cyclical association between economic trends and fertility rates that characterized developed countries in recent decades Adsera 2011b;Neels et al 2013). However, there was considerable variation in fertility changes by country, age, and birth order, which suggests that different segments of the population responded differently to the early stage of the recession (Goldstein et al 2013, Lanzieri 2013). …”

Section: Box 3: the Impact Of The Recent Economic Recessionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The evidence for the years 2009-2012 suggests that in many countries total fertility rates stopped rising in and subsequently declined in 2011-12 (VID 2012, Goldstein et al 2013, Lanzieri 2013. This is in line with a pro-cyclical association between economic trends and fertility rates that characterized developed countries in recent decades Adsera 2011b;Neels et al 2013).…”

Section: Box 3: the Impact Of The Recent Economic Recessionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

Basten

Sobotka

Zeman

et al. 2014

World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries AbstractThis paper discusses results of the global survey of experts on the future of low fertility in low-fertility countries. The survey was coordinated by the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital as a part of an effort to produce global argumentbased population projections by age, sex and level of education. First we give an overview of fertility changes in major low-fertility regions. Next we outline main theoretical arguments and review a wide range of factors contributing to fertility change and variation in contemporary low-fertility settings. Subsequently, we present survey results based on 184 assessments of over 170 experts analysing 41 countries with currently low or aroundreplacement fertility and Israel. These experts provided forecasts of period total fertility rate (TFR) in 2030 and 2050, estimated 80% confidence interval of their forecast and assessed the validity and potential impact on fertility of 46 factors. We also compare expert-derived projections of the TFR trends with the forecasts formulated by the UN World Population Prospects in 2010. The survey results in combination with the feedback provided by the invited experts then serve as a basis for formulating a set of projection scenarios for all low fertility countries up until 2050, which are additionally expanded (in a simpler form) through 2200. We present these scenarios and discuss past changes in fertility differences by level of education and their potential future trends in main regions. Presented analyses and projections indicate that a global convergence of fertility to around replacement level, envisioned in the UN projections, appears unlikely. Continuing differentiation combined with partial convergence in fertility towards lower levels is suggested as a more plausible scenario, with East Asia (including China) as well as Russia expected to have sustained very low fertility below 1.5 through 2050.

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Section: Employment Economic Uncertainty and Fertilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Box 3: the Impact Of The Recent Economic Recessionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Box 3: the Impact Of The Recent Economic Recessionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

Basten

Sobotka

Zeman

et al. 2014

World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century

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“…For an analysis of the 2008 crisis impact on GDP across European countries, see e.g., Alessandrini and Fratianni (2015) or Tonveronachi (2015); for its social impact, see e.g., Botti et al (2016). In this journal, Goldstein et al (2013) elaborate on the impact of the crisis on fertility, a topic on which more research is certainly needed. 9 At least in four important aspects: Both are Catholic countries, they share a Latin heritage (from neo-Latin languages to codified law), they are latecomers to European industrialization, and are medium-to large-sized countries with significant regional differences.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

GDP and life expectancy in Italy and Spain over the long run: A time-series approach

Felice¹,

Andreu²,

D’Ippoliti³

2016

DemRes

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“…First, a further postponement of motherhood among highly educated women may be predicted, as we can assume that highly educated women will continue to condition their start of childbearing on the achievement of other life goals, like finding stable employment or getting married. This is particularly likely to be the case in countries that have been severely affected by economic crises, and thus have high unemployment rates (Goldstein et al 2013), increasingly precarious employment arrangements, and financial challenges (Testa and Basten 2014). Cohabitation, especially in the form of a prelude to marriage, can smooth the negative education-fertility link, even though fertility is still more likely to occur within marriage (Hiekel et al 2014).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Will highly educated women have more children in the future? Looking at reproductive plans and outcomes

Testa¹

2018

Populationyearbook

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"Will highly educated women have more children in the future?" In this contribution, I address this question by looking at both fertility and fertility intentions; i.e., the number of children people plan to have over their reproductive lives. Intended births are highly correlated with actual births, and in low-fertility settings, childbearing has become associated with the couple's agency. 1 On the other hand, education, which is a marker of income and social status, has remained an important driver of fertility choices. 2 Hence, understanding the reproductive decision-making of women and men with low, medium, and high levels of education is crucial when seeking to determine whether -and if so, to what extent -there is scope for additional policy interventions aimed at raising fertility levels.

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Fertility Reactions to the "Great Recession" in Europe

Cited by 237 publications

References 15 publications

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

GDP and life expectancy in Italy and Spain over the long run: A time-series approach

Will highly educated women have more children in the future? Looking at reproductive plans and outcomes

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