Fertility Data for German-speaking Countries:&lt;br&gt;What is the Potential? Where are the Pitfalls?&lt;br&gt;

Kreyenfeld, Michaela; Zeman, Kryštof; Burkimsher, Marion; Jaschinski, Ina

doi:10.12765/cpos-2011-06

Cited by 7 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 16 publications

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“…This issue is discussed in detail by Kreyenfeld et al (2012), who argue that the Austrian Microcensus specifically suffers from "family bias" of overstated fertility level and understated childlessness, as the respondents with young children are easier to reach by interviewers. On the contrary, the results of the Swiss Household Panel show an underestimation of the level of fertility and an overestimation of childlessness, which are also discussed by Kreyenfeld et al (2012). The differences span 0.1 to 0.15 children per woman regarding completed fertility and 3% to 5% as regards childlessness.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Delayed first births and completed fertility across the 1940–1969 birth cohorts

Beaujouan¹,

Zeman²,

Nathan³

2023

DemRes

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BACKGROUNDThe rise in the age at first birth has been universal in low-fertility countries in the last decades. Mothers who have their first child later tend to have fewer children, and in the absence of fertility catch-up at older ages, delayed fertility contributes to cohort fertility decline. OBJECTIVEWe aim to study how changes in completed cohort fertility (quantum) relate to delayed age at first birth (tempo) across birth cohorts. METHODSWe use birth histories collected in surveys or censuses in ten high-income countries. We rely on a decomposition analysis that quantifies how much the changes in age at first birth, mothers' completed fertility conditional on age at first birth, and childlessness contribute to the total change in cohort fertility over the 1940-1969 birth cohorts. RESULTSIn many countries and cohorts, the fertility intensity of mothers increased more at later ages than at earlier ages, reflecting the catching up of those who had delayed childbearing. However, in most countries studied, the increased fertility intensity of mothers at older ages was not sufficient to offset the depressing effect of delayed first births on cohort fertility rates.

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Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Delayed first births and completed fertility across the 1940–1969 birth cohorts

Beaujouan¹,

Zeman²,

Nathan³

2023

DemRes

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Spatial Variation of Sub-national Fertility Trends in Austria, Germany and Switzerland

Basten¹,

Huinink²,

Klüsener³

2012

CPoS

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Sub-national trends in fertility are of great importance for policy makers and regional planners. This paper aims to provide a theoretical and empirical framework for policy makers, taking into account past and present trends in fertility, as well as their theoretical underpinnings. These will, we argue, be crucial in determining future trajectories and potential political responses to them.The theoretical part of the paper deals with the factors that may influence fertility differences at the sub-national level, including decisions and life course trajectories at the individual level, as well as contextual socio-economic phenomena operating at different geographical levels (local, regional, national, global). This is followed by an empirical section, which takes the Eurostat publications on spatial fertility differences inEuropeas a starting point. In an attempt to overcome the limitations of these reports – both in terms of the lack of geographic detail and the short time span covered – we provide more thorough overviews for Austria, Germany and Switzerland. Using historical data from the Princeton European Fertility Project and other sources, we have been able to reconstruct comparative regional fertility time series for the past 150 years. Finally, we present a case study on local fertility development in the municipalities and unified rural communities of the German state ofLower Saxonyand the districts of the German city ofBremen.Based on the results of this analysis, we conclude that the recent degree of fertility convergence between regions within countries – particularly at the macro-regional level – is, indeed, striking. However, taking a long-term perspective, we are able to identify some substantial time periods over the last 150 years in which regional fertility levels diverged. This implies that the current picture must not necessarily constitute Fukuyama’s “end of history” over the coming decades. Moreover, the study of local-level data reveals that, in contrast to the overall macro-regional fertility convergence process in all three countries, a trend towards divergence can be observed within the city of Bremen. This demonstrates that local divergence can run parallel to overall regional convergence.

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Fertility Forecasting in the German-speaking World:<br>Recent Experience and Opportunities for Improvement<br>

Goldstein¹,

Rößger²,

Jaschinski³

et al. 2012

CPoS

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In this article, the official fertility projections of the statistical agencies in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland are examined. We refer to the literature on this topic and the history of fertility projections in all three countries. We conclude that the basis of fertility projections is the persistence of the present. We then investigate the most recent projections in more detail – with special regard for their consistency of timing and level changes of fertility. This shows that in the low fertility context, such as in the three countries under consideration, where fertility postponement is expected to stop sometime in upcoming decades, the medium assumptions of constancy contain an implicit decline in the forecasted level of fertility. Both tempo and cohort perspectives on projected fertility reveal this conclusion. Consequently, we suggest that agencies should deal explicitly with the prospect of postponement and their effect on fertility levels. The Bongaarts-Feeney framework or similar ones could be used. We also provide examples of three consistent variants (low, medium, and high) in the case of Germany, and show that such a forecast can in some cases outperform the usual constant level forecast in a low-fertility context.

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Fertility Data for German-speaking Countries:<br>What is the Potential? Where are the Pitfalls?<br>

Cited by 7 publications

References 16 publications

Delayed first births and completed fertility across the 1940–1969 birth cohorts

Delayed first births and completed fertility across the 1940–1969 birth cohorts

Spatial Variation of Sub-national Fertility Trends in Austria, Germany and Switzerland

Fertility Forecasting in the German-speaking World:<br>Recent Experience and Opportunities for Improvement<br>

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