Fear, lockdown, and diversion: Comparing drivers of pandemic economic decline 2020

Goolsbee, Austan; Syverson, Chad

doi:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104311

Cited by 430 publications

(282 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…Our case-controlled single-population study also confirms the indications of Goolsbee and Syverson that voluntary behavior can overrule enforced restrictions. [28] Our results (and most of the above epidemiological retrospective studies, in fact) are at odds with some modelling studies perhaps best illustrated by the study of Flaxman et al [4] In addition to other points raised [29], these models lack the heterogeneity of real populations (the fact that most transmission occurs in a minority of the population, "superspreading", etc. ), which substantially reduces transmission and (transient) herd immunity thresholds [6]- [12].…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 56%

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Lockdown Effects on Sars-CoV-2 Transmission – The evidence from Northern Jutland

Kepp¹,

Bjørnskov

2021

Preprint

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The exact impact of lockdowns and other NPIs on Sars-CoV-2 transmission remain a matter of debate as early models assumed 100% susceptible homogenously transmitting populations, an assumption known to overestimate counterfactual transmission, and since most real epidemiological data are subject to massive confounding variables. Here, we analyse the unique case-controlled epidemiological dataset arising from the selective lockdown of parts of Northern Denmark, but not others, as a consequence of the spread of mink-related mutations in November 2020. Our analysis shows that while infection levels decreased, they did so before lockdown was effective, and infection numbers also decreased in neighbour municipalities without mandates. Direct spill-over to neighbour municipalities or the simultaneous mass testing do not explain this. Instead, control of infection pockets possibly together with voluntary social behaviour was apparently effective before the mandate, explaining why the infection decline occurred before and in both the mandated and non-mandated areas. The data suggest that efficient infection surveillance and voluntary compliance make full lockdowns unnecessary at least in some circumstances.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 56%

“…Our case-controlled single-population study also confirms the indications of Goolsbee and Syverson that voluntary behavior can overrule enforced restrictions. [28]…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lockdown Effects on Sars-CoV-2 Transmission – The evidence from Northern Jutland

Kepp¹,

Bjørnskov

2021

Preprint

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“…Studies of the behavioral responses in the pandemic in the U.S. typically find relatively small effects of policy, e.g Kong and Prinz (2020),Baek et al (2021). orGoolsbee and Syverson (2021). One exception isCoibion et al (2020).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Work from Home Before and After the COVID-19 Outbreak

Bick¹,

Blandin²,

Mertens³

2021

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Based on novel survey data, we document the evolution of commuting behavior in the U.S. over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. Work from home (WFH) increased sharply and persistently after the outbreak, and much more so among some workers than others. Using theory and evidence, we argue that the observed heterogeneity in WFH transitions is consistent with potentially more permanent changes to work arrangements in some occupations, and not just temporary substitution in response to greater health risks. Consistent with increased WFH adoption, many more-especially higher-educated-workers expect to WFH in the future.

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“…Our results showed that contaminations occurred in collective places 33.0% (430/1305) of the time, and that the lockdown reduced it to 15.0% (114/760) of contaminations (ie, a 54.5% reduction), whereas daily anosmia reported on the national website maladiecoronavirus.fr showed an 80% reduction after the partial lockdown initiation. This can be explained by the voluntary decisions of people to reduce social meetings at a higher rate than government-imposed restrictions on activity during the lockdown and especially among friends, from which contaminations decreased from 29.0% to 14.1% [8]. As work and school were maintained during the shutdown, higher rates of contaminations were observed in those places.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of COVID-19 Transmission Sources in France by Self-Assessment Before and After the Partial Lockdown: Observational Study

Denis¹,

Septans²,

Goff³

et al. 2021

J Med Internet Res

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Background We developed a questionnaire on a web application for analyzing COVID-19 contamination circumstances in France during the second wave of the pandemic. Objective This study aims to analyze the impact on contamination characteristics before and after the second partial lockdown in France to adapt public health restrictions to further prevent pandemic surges. Methods Between December 15 and 24, 2020, after a national media campaign, users of the sourcecovid.fr web application were asked questions about their own or a close relative’s COVID-19 contamination after August 15, 2020, in France. The data of the contamination’s circumstances were assessed and compared before and after the second partial lockdown, which occurred on October 25, 2020, during the second wave of the pandemic and was ongoing on December 24, 2020. Results As of December 24, 2020, 441,000 connections on the web application were observed. A total of 2218 questionnaires were assessable for analysis. About 61.8% (n=1309) of the participants were sure of their contamination origin, and 38.2% (n=809) thought they knew it. The median age of users was 43.0 (IQR 32-56) years, and 50.7% (n=1073) were male. The median incubation time of the assessed cohort was 4.0 (IQR 3-5) days. Private areas (family’s or friend’s house) were the main source of contamination (1048/2090, 50.2%), followed by work colleagues (579/2090, 27.7%). The main time of day for the contamination was the evening (339/961, 35.3%) before the lockdown and was reduced to 18.2% (86/473) after the lockdown (P<.001). The person who transmitted the virus to the user before and after the lockdown was significantly different (P<.001): a friend (382/1317, 29% vs 109/773, 14.1%), a close relative (304/1317, 23.1% vs 253/773, 32.7%), or a work colleague (315/1317, 23.9% vs 264/773, 34.2%). The main location where the virus was transmitted to the users before and after the lockdown was significantly different too (P<.001): home (278/1305, 21.3% vs 194/760, 25.5%), work (293/1305, 22.5% vs 225/760, 29.6%), collective places (430/1305, 33% vs 114/760, 15%), and care centers (58/1305, 4.4% vs 74/760, 9.7%). Conclusions Modalities of transmissions significantly changed before and after the second lockdown in France. The main sources of contamination remained the private areas and with work colleagues. Work became the main location of contamination after the lockdown, whereas contaminations in collective places were strongly reduced. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04670003; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04670003

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Fear, lockdown, and diversion: Comparing drivers of pandemic economic decline 2020

Cited by 430 publications

References 34 publications

Lockdown Effects on Sars-CoV-2 Transmission – The evidence from Northern Jutland

Lockdown Effects on Sars-CoV-2 Transmission – The evidence from Northern Jutland

Work from Home Before and After the COVID-19 Outbreak

Analysis of COVID-19 Transmission Sources in France by Self-Assessment Before and After the Partial Lockdown: Observational Study

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