FDR to Clinton, Mueller to?: A Field Essay on Presidential Approval

Abstract

Since the 1930s, polling organizations have asked Americans whether they “approve or disapprove of the job [the incumbent] is doing as president.” In the early 1970s, John Mueller started an academic industry by asking what drives these evaluations. American politics and the tools available to examine it have changed dramatically since then, inspiring a burst of research on presidential approval in the 1990s. We review this new body of literature, arguing that it builds on but differs importantly from earlier approval studies. Since Mueller’s writing, scholars have expanded his relatively simple model, taking account of presidents’ goals and personal characteristics, other political actors, the ubiquitous media, and an inattentive public. We describe three waves of research, focusing on the most recent wave. We suggest that history, along with new intellectual currents, data, and methods have enabled each wave to incorporate more of political, social, and psychological reality. Finally, we identify the issues most likely to motivate presidential approval research for the next ten years.

Does Presidential Rhetoric Matter? Priming and Presidential Approval

“…Work on presidential approval constitutes one of the most progressive research endeavors in political science. The bulk of this scholarship focuses on aggregate trends in approval (Gronke and Newman 2003), documenting the causal importance of the economy, wars, media coverage, inter alia (e.g., Kernell 1978; Edwards 1990; Edwards et al 1995; Nicholson et al 2002). “Presidential drama,” such as the occurrence of a major speech, also can impact trends in approval (e.g., Brace and Hinckley 1993).…”

“…For example, media coverage can influence individual level evaluations of the president (e.g., Iyengar and Kinder 1987). Gronke and Newman (2003, 22) explain, however, that, relative to research on aggregate trends, “it is surprising . .…”

“…It is important to keep in mind that this is a first test of a proposition that has evaded study, undoubtedly, in part, because alternative modes of inquiry have been unable to address it 9 . Gronke and Newman (2003, 13) explain that the study of approval is “seldom the direct target of . .…”

Interest Groups and Presidential Approval

“…For the most part, research has centered on the macro sources of presidential approval. Commonly, studies look at temporal movement in national approval, asking such questions as whether changes in economic indicators or major presidential addresses to the nation affect the level and trend in approval (Gronke and Newman 2003, 2009). Cohen (2008, 2010), however, argues that recent changes in the political system, notably the rise in party polarization and the new media, has undermined the effectiveness of a national “going public” strategy (Kernell 2006) for building presidential support.…”

“…1 1 In reviewing the presidential approval literature, Gronke and Newman (2003, 2009) encourage more research on issue position effects on approval, which has received much little attention. …”