Fatores que contribuíram para a reeleição da presidente Dilma Rousseff

Martins, Diogo José Dalpoz; Mansano, Fernanda Helen; Parré, José Luiz; Plassa, Wander

doi:10.5007/2175-7984.2016v15n32p145

Cited by 8 publications

(6 citation statements)

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“…The research described in [Schuhli 2018] studied the spatial patterns in the 2010 election and the impact of catholic voting employing spatial autocorrelation techniques. Similarly, [Martins et al 2016] applied spatial regression analysis to understand the factors that influenced the 2014 presidential election. Using spatial econometrics techniques, [Carvalho and Menezes 2015] and [Magalhães et al 2015] analyzed the Brazilian presidential elections of 2010 in a national scope.…”

Section: • 33mentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysing Spatio-Temporal Voting Patterns in Brazilian Elections Through a Simple Data Science Pipeline

Jacintho

Silva

Parmezan

et al. 2021

jidm

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Since 1989, the first year of the democratic presidential election after a long period of a dictatorship regime, Brazil conducted eight presidential elections. Short and long-term shifts of power and two impeachment processes marked such a period. This instability is a research case in electoral studies, mainly regarding the understanding of citizens' voting behavior. Comprehending patterns in the population behavior can give us insight into phenomena and processes that affect democratic political decisions. In light of this, our paper analyses Brazilian electoral data at the municipal level from 1998 to 2018 using a simple data science pipeline, which consists of five steps: (i) data selection; (ii) data preprocessing; (iii) identification of spatial patterns, in which we seek to understand the role of space in the election results employing spatial auto-correlation techniques; (iv) identification of temporal patterns, where we investigate similar trends of votes over the years applying a hierarchical clustering method; and (v) evaluation of results. We study the presidential elections focusing on the right and left-wing parties most relevant for the period: the Brazilian Social Democracy Party~(PSDB) and the Workers' Party~(PT). We also analyse the congressman election data regarding parties ideologically to the right and left in the political spectrum. Through the obtained results, we found the existence of spatial dependence in every electoral year investigated. Moreover, despite the changes in the political-economic context over the years, neighboring cities seem to present similar voting behavior trends.

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Section: • 33mentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysing Spatio-Temporal Voting Patterns in Brazilian Elections Through a Simple Data Science Pipeline

Jacintho

Silva

Parmezan

et al. 2021

jidm

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“…Por haver essas duas hipóteses concorrentes em torno do retorno eleitoral do MCMV, esperava-se que essa polêmica já tivesse sido resolvida pela investigação da evidência empírica. Ao contrário do Programa "Bolsa Família" (BF), que possui um conjunto de estudos na literatura, procurando analisar o seu impacto eleitoral nos pleitos presidenciais de 2006, 2010 e 2014 (Carraro et al, 2007;Soares e Terron, 2008;Marques et al, 2009;Peixoto e Rennó, 2011;Pereira et al, 2015;Magalhães et al, 2015;Almeida e Souza, 2015;Ribeiro e Almeida, 2014;Martins et al, 2016), o eventual retorno eleitoral do Programa "Minha Casa Minha Vida" é muito menos estudado. Até onde se sabe, existe apenas um trabalho sobre o impacto eleitoral do Programa "Minha Casa Minha Vida" (Dias e Simoni Jr, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

O “Minha Casa Minha Vida” Dá Voto?

Almeida

Silva

2021

RBERU

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O objetivo deste trabalho é investigar se o Programa “Minha Casa Minha Vida” (MCMV) gerou retorno eleitoral para o candidato do governo nos pleitos presidenciais. O desenho do Programa MCMV permite o surgimento de clientelismo político no cadastramento e na seleção dos beneficiários finais para o recebimento de moradias. Se tal característica não for levada em conta na análise, o retorno eleitoral de programas sociais como “Minha Casa Minha Vida” pode não ser adequadamente capturado. Porém, o clientelismo político é uma característica não observada nos dados. Para contornar isso, foram estimadas regressões usando dados em painel com controle de efeitos fixos em nível microrregional. Os resultados revelam que, apesar de haver potencial prática de clientelismo político, não há evidência de retorno eleitoral do programa MCMV.

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“…A primeira crítica foi também formulada por Schwartz (1994) como um problema de validade interna e por Hanushek et al (1974) (Hunter e Power, 2007;Zucco, 2008Zucco, , 2013Zucco, , 2015Nicolau e Peixoto, 2007;Soares e Terron, 2008;Canêdo-Pinheiro, 2015;Marzagão, 2013;Magalhães et al, 2015;Pereira et al, 2015;Zucco, 2015;Martins et al, 2016). escolha das cidades se deve à própria estrutura do federalismo brasileiro.…”

Section: Análise Empíricaunclassified

“…Mapas da distribuição de votos e correlações entre o desempenho dos partidos e indicadores sociais mostram que o perfil geográfico do voto no PT se alterou entre 2006 e 2002, passando de um padrão assentado em localidades mais desenvolvidas para outro assentado em lugares e regiões mais pobres (Hunter e Power, 2007;Nicolau e Peixoto, 2007;Zucco, 2008;Soares e Terron, 2008;Canêdo-Pinheiro, 2015). Esse perfil se manteria em 2010 e 2014 (Marzagão, 2013;Magalhães et al 2015;Pereira et al, 2015;Martins et al 2016).…”

Section: Realinhamentounclassified

Política distributiva e competição presidencial no Brasil: Programa Bolsa-Família e a tese do realinhamento eleitoral

Simoni¹

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The presidential elections are the main competition of the Brazilian political system. The current literature on the subject pointed out two thesis about the nature and dynamic of presidential elections: The Bolsa-Família (PBF) conditional cash transfer program is considered to be central and determinant to the electoral results and in 2006 would have contributed to realign the electoral bases of PT, the only party competitive in all elections. The policy is considered to be fundamental to explain the strength of the party on Northeast among poor electors. On this dissertation I examine these hypothesis and debate the theoretical, methodological and empirical inconsistences and deficiencies of the current literature. In order to do so, I replicate models, analyze novel models looking at surveys and aggregate data on the municipal level and on ballot level, among other methods. The results highlight conclusions different from the standing literature. First, I argue that the correlation between the electoral changes of 2006 and the social profile of electors occur heterogeneously over different regions and localities. If the proper measure is applied, these variations are better understood as a movement of volatile electors and not as realignment of electoral bases. Moreover, contrary to the current literature, I emphasize that the investigation over the electoral effect of the PBF shouldn't be restricted to its beneficiaries and neither that it is possible to infer its importance on the electoral result based on its regional distribution. Contrarily, based on the data we gathered, the impact of the PBF to the electoral results was more important on the Southeast than on the Northeast and it is not restricted to electors directly beneficed by the program. Still, I argue that if the adequate framework is adopted, it is possible to say that the impact of the PBF on the electoral results wasn't very strong or determinant to the electoral result. I conclude that the parties' long term electoral bases influence on present results, minimizing the fluctuations that occurred in 2006. As it happens with all the policies with high potential to impact on voters decisions, the effect of the PBF cannot be analyzed separately, it has to be considered inside the context of the electoral and political dispute.

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Fatores que contribuíram para a reeleição da presidente Dilma Rousseff

Cited by 8 publications

References 0 publications

Analysing Spatio-Temporal Voting Patterns in Brazilian Elections Through a Simple Data Science Pipeline

Analysing Spatio-Temporal Voting Patterns in Brazilian Elections Through a Simple Data Science Pipeline

O “Minha Casa Minha Vida” Dá Voto?

Política distributiva e competição presidencial no Brasil: Programa Bolsa-Família e a tese do realinhamento eleitoral

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