Fast Response to Superspreading: Uncertainty and Complexity in the Context of COVID-19

Abstract

Although the first coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) wave has peaked with the second wave underway, the world is still struggling to manage potential systemic risks and unpredictability of the pandemic. A particular challenge is the “superspreading” of the virus, which starts abruptly, is difficult to predict, and can quickly escalate into medical and socio-economic emergencies that contribute to long-lasting crises challenging our current ways of life. In these uncertain times, organizations and societies worldwide are faced with the need to develop appropriate strategies and intervention portfolios that require fast understanding of the complex interdependencies in our world and rapid, flexible action to contain the spread of the virus as quickly as possible, thus preventing further disastrous consequences of the pandemic. We integrate perspectives from systems sciences, epidemiology, biology, social networks, and organizational research in the context of the superspreading phenomenon to understand the complex system of COVID-19 pandemic and develop suggestions for interventions aimed at rapid responses.

The Epidemiological Characteristics of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Europe: Focus on Italy

“…Criteria adopted in all Italian regions to identify symptomatic cases or hospitalize most serious cases are almost the same, and the number of this type of patients can be closely linked to the transmissibility of the virus. On the other hand, the identification of asymptomatic infections depends a lot on the ability of public health departments to perform screening tests and, unfortunately, this can vary a lot over time, especially in the case of overloading of the health system [ 3 , 4 ].…”

“…Some studies during the COVID-19 pandemic have assumed that the secondary attack rate can be as high as 35% if secondary cases originating from a known index case in a restricted setting, such as a restaurant dinner or a family lunch, are considered. In such situations, it is therefore of primary importance to promptly trace the close contacts of the participants in these events to effectively reduce the transmission of the virus [ 4 , 5 ].…”

“…These indicators can be supported by a further index, called factor K (coefficient of dispersion K), useful for quantifying the individual differences of a single infected subject to be able to transmit the infection to a susceptible contact. In practice, some subjects are able to infect a large number of people while others have a lower ability to spread the virus; a factor of K < 1 is indicated if the variation between the different subjects is large, while K > 1 if it is not [ 4 ]. The factor K is of crucial importance for the correct framing of the so-called super spreader events (SSEs) relatively common in infectious diseases’ epidemiology.…”

“…SSEs happen and are documented in coffee shops, restaurants, churches and ships, as well as in health and social settings. In these cases, R0 is not useful to justify the total number of infections [ 4 , 6 ].…”

Probability of COVID-19 infection by cough of a normal person and a super-spreader

“… 39,40 A super-spreader spreads the infection while shouting, talking in close proximity, and other such events. 40 …”