Failure probability assessment of gas transmission pipelines based on historical failure-related data and modification factors

Shan, Ke; Shuai, Jian; Xu, Kaiqin; Zheng, Wei

doi:10.1016/j.jngse.2018.01.049

Cited by 52 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…According to the results of the present study, external interference such as third party damage, Marine anchor collision with sea lines and Closing GOV 1050/1005 and increasing pressure above design pressure of pipeline downstream had a great impact on the final risk index [ 32 ]. Other previous studies also confirm the high effect of third-party activities on pipeline final risk level [ 33 , 34 ].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 75%

Risk assessment of fire, explosion and release of toxic gas of Siri–Assalouyeh sour gas pipeline using fuzzy analytical hierarchy process

Jabbari

Gholamnia

Esmaeili

et al. 2021

Heliyon

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Background Risk assessment of gas pipelines is very important because of various hazards and economic losses. Using fuzzy logic increases the reliability and accuracy of the results. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the fuzzy risk of fire, explosion and release of toxic gas in the pipeline using fuzzy analytical hierarchy process. Methodology Extraction of all hazards from HAZOP and HAZID was carried out. Fuzzy risk assessment was performed using MATLAB software. Using fuzzy hierarchy process analysis, the weight of each basic risk item (BRI) was summed up in a framework, and the fuzzy risk level was determined with a five-state criterion including highly desirable, favorable, moderate, undesirable and highly undesirable. Results The final risk score was equal to 0.1492, which according to the five-state criterion the risk level is in the favorable area. The highest risk score was related to hot work with open flame item with a risk score of 0.2485. Conclusions The final risk score of fire, explosion and release of toxic gas in Siri–Assaluyeh gas pipeline is in the optimal area. Fuzzy risk assessment, compare to conventional risk matrices, provides more data to safety managers about the hazards and their rankings. Accordingly, the results are expected to be applicable to the safety managers while making decisions related to the risk management of gas pipelines.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 75%

Risk assessment of fire, explosion and release of toxic gas of Siri–Assalouyeh sour gas pipeline using fuzzy analytical hierarchy process

Jabbari

Gholamnia

Esmaeili

et al. 2021

Heliyon

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The pipeline failure database of PHMSA in the USA and EGIG in Europe are mature databases that are used widely. The calculation model is as follows [26]:…”

Section: Failure Probability Of Pipelinementioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal Maintenance Decision Method for Urban Gas Pipelines Based on as Low as Reasonably Practicable Principle

2018

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In the transportation process of urban gas pipelines, there are various uncontrollable risks and uncertainties possibly leading to the failure of gas pipelines and thereby serious consequences, such as city gas shutdown, nearby casualties, and environmental pollution. To avoid these hazards, numerous studies have been performed in identifying and evaluating the occurrence of risks and uncertainties to pipelines. However, discussions on risk reduction and other maintenance work are scarce; therefore, a scientific method to guide decision making is non-existent, thereby resulting in excessive investment in maintenance and reduced maintenance cost of other infrastructures. Therefore, the as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) principle combined with optimization theory is used to discuss pipeline maintenance decision-making methods in unacceptable regions and ALARP regions. This paper focuses on the analysis of pipeline risk reduction in the ALARP region and proposes three optimization decision models. The case study shows that maintenance decision making should consider the comprehensive impact of maintenance cost to reduce risk and loss cost caused by pipeline failure, and that the further cost–benefit analysis of measures should be performed. The proposed pipeline maintenance decision-making method is an economical method for pipeline operators to make risk decisions under the premise of pipeline safety, which can improve the effectiveness of the use of maintenance resources.

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“…However, the above methods are slightly insufficient for the safety assessment of heavy oil gathering pipelines, mainly because the results of the assessment are more subjective, or require complete and reliable failure data [16][17][18], where the development status does not match the current safety assessment of heavy oil gathering pipelines. Moreover, research on the consequences of failure have concentrated on certain specific consequences [19][20][21][22][23][24].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Research on a Safety Assessment Method for Leakage in a Heavy Oil Gathering Pipeline

2020

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At present, the number of oil and gas gathering and transportation pipelines is numerous, and leakage accidents occur frequently. Each year, due to pipeline failure, there are immeasurable consequences for people and the environment around the affected pipelines. In order to reduce the risk of leakage accidents in heavy oil gathering pipelines and prevent the occurrence of major spills, it is of great significance to carry out safety assessments of them. However, failure data of these pipelines is seriously deficient and statistical methods used to evaluate pipeline safety are incompatible. Therefore, this paper proposes a risk assessment system for heavy oil gathering pipelines in the absence of failure data. Firstly, a Bayesian network (BN) for the leak safety evaluation of heavy oil gathering pipelines is established via mapping from a bow-tie (BT) model. Then, information diffusion theory is combined with fuzzy set theory to obtain the failure probability of each factor affecting the pipeline failure, and then the failure probability of the pipeline is obtained by the full probability formula. In addition, in order to assess the extent of consequences due to accidents, variable fuzzy set theory is used to comprehensively consider the consequences of the leakage of heavy oil gathering pipelines. Finally, the above two parts are combined to form a safety assessment system to realize risk management and control for pipelines, which is necessary to ensure the safety of heavy oil gathering pipelines.

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Failure probability assessment of gas transmission pipelines based on historical failure-related data and modification factors

Cited by 52 publications

References 16 publications

Risk assessment of fire, explosion and release of toxic gas of Siri–Assalouyeh sour gas pipeline using fuzzy analytical hierarchy process

Risk assessment of fire, explosion and release of toxic gas of Siri–Assalouyeh sour gas pipeline using fuzzy analytical hierarchy process

Optimal Maintenance Decision Method for Urban Gas Pipelines Based on as Low as Reasonably Practicable Principle

Research on a Safety Assessment Method for Leakage in a Heavy Oil Gathering Pipeline

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