Extreme value modeling for the analysis and prediction of time series of extreme tropospheric ozone levels: A case study

Abstract

The occurrence of high concentrations of tropospheric ozone is considered as one of the most important issues of air management programs. The prediction of dangerous ozone levels for the public health and the environment, along with the assessment of air quality control programs aimed at reducing their severity, is of considerable interest to the scientific community and to policy makers. The chemical mechanisms of tropospheric ozone formation are complex, and highly variable meteorological conditions contribute additionally to difficulties in accurate study and prediction of high levels of ozone. Statistical methods offer an effective approach to understand the problem and eventually improve the ability to predict maximum levels of ozone. In this paper an extreme value model is developed to study data sets that consist of periodically collected maxima of tropospheric ozone concentrations and meteorological variables. The methods are applied to daily tropospheric ozone maxima in Guadalajara City, Mexico, for the period January 1997 to December 2006. The model adjusts the daily rate of change in ozone for concurrent impacts of seasonality and present and past meteorological conditions, which include surface temperature, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, and ozone. The results indicate that trend, annual effects, and key meteorological variables along with some interactions explain the variation in daily ozone maxima. Prediction performance assessments yield reasonably good results.

Atmospheric Distribution of PAHs and Quinones in the Gas and PM1 Phases in the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area, Mexico: Sources and Health Risk

“…in the Atemajac Valley and the Tonala Plain, surrounded to the north-east by the Rio Grande Santiago Canyon. A volcanic range located south of the GMA constitutes a natural physical barrier preventing wind circulation, which causes air masses' stagnation [24,25]. Due to the GMA latitude, solar radiation (SR) generates a highly photoreactive atmosphere [26].…”

Comparison of Ozone Production Regimes between Two Mexican Cities: Guadalajara and Mexico City

“…Using the same model in an iterative manner, they modified the emissions inventory to improve the model performance [11]. Other modeling studies exist that are based on a statistical method [12] or a neural-network method [13]. These studies might be useful for prognosis purposes under the assumption that the current climate or emission condition will remain unchanged.…”

Concentración de ozono y vitalidad de árboles en la zona metropolitana de Guadalajara

“…Para la modelación y el análisis del presente trabajo se consideró la humedad relativa (%), temperatura (°C), dirección del viento (azimut), y velocidad del viento (m/s) (Zolghadri et al 2003). Como se reporta que las concentraciones de O 3 más elevadas se tienden a presentar en las horas con registros de mayor temperatura (Escarela 2012), se decidió usar en el análisis de las variables climáticas descritas, sus valores máximos.…”