Extreme precipitation response to climate perturbations in an atmospheric mesoscale model

Attema, Jisk; Loriaux, Jessica M.; Lenderink, Geert

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/1/014003

Cited by 58 publications

(72 citation statements)

References 35 publications

(32 reference statements)

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“…However, the extreme precipitation intensities could be influenced by many factors, such as atmospheric dynamic advection processes, atmospheric moisture availability and other process (Berg et al 2013, Attema et al 2014, Panthou et al 2014. The relationship between extreme precipitation and temperature (analogous to the Clausius-Clapeyron relation) plays an important role in precipitation formation (Barbero et al 2017).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Urban impacts on air temperature and precipitation over The Netherlands

Golroudbary¹,

Zeng²,

Mannaerts³

et al. 2018

Clim. Res.

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The detection of changes in the weather of urban areas is an important issue for understanding the impact of weather on human lives. Five years of basic weather observations (2011−2015) from automatic and amateur networks across The Netherlands were used to investigate the urban effects on meteorological parameters with a focus on temperature (e.g. urban heat island [UHI]) and precipitation. Representative stations were selected based on metadata and a set of criteria for data quality control. An hourly analysis indicates that UHIs are a nocturnal phenomenon in The Netherlands and are more prominent after sunset, when they exceed 2°C. A seasonal analysis shows that UHIs occur in all seasons during the year, with the most significant UHI occurring in the summer. Furthermore, the differences in the precipitation of urban and rural areas were shown to be greatest after sunrise during the day. The maximum hourly UHI and hourly precipitation distributions were analyzed using a generalized extreme value model. The occurrences of maximum precipitation are likely to be more frequent at urban stations than at the nearby rural stations. Additionally, the distinct seasonal cycle of precipitation that is dependent on the UHI demonstrates that the maximum UHI and precipitation occurred in the summer. Our results indicate that the UHI and precipitation enhancements in Dutch urban residential areas, as obtained from the data of weather amateurs, are in agreement with the results presented in the literature, and that 7% more precipitation occurs in cities than in rural areas.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The extreme precipitation sensitivity to temperature seems physically implausible due to other physical processes and factors (Lenderink & Van Meijgaard 2010, Attema & Lenderink 2014. However, the change from stratiform precipitation to more convective precipitation can be expected at higher temperatures (Lin et al 2011).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Urban impacts on air temperature and precipitation over The Netherlands

Golroudbary¹,

Zeng²,

Mannaerts³

et al. 2018

Clim. Res.

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“…Examples of this feedback can be found in Findell and Eltahir (2003), Santanello et al (2011), Taylor et al (2012, and others. The Netherlands is however not located in a region where strong feedbacks of this type are expected (Seneviratne et al, 2006;The GLACE Team et al, 2004) and the influence of changes in climate, SST, or circulation are likely more important (Attema et al, 2014;van Haren et al, 2013). If the selection procedure had been more successful in identifying similar events, we could have made a composite event by averaging the initial and boundary conditions, similar to Mahoney et al (2012).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The global surface temperature is predicted to increase by at least 1 • C under all concentration pathways by 2050 (IPCC, 2013). The surrogate climate change scenario is applied to the initial land and atmospheric conditions of the simulations, as well as to the driving sea surface temperature following the methodology by Attema et al (2014), who suggest a vertically uniform temperature perturbation is appropriate at mid-latitudes. The relative humidity is unchanged in these simulations, which implies an absolute surface humidity increase of 6-7 %.…”

Section: Model Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Precipitation in the Netherlands has increased by about 25 % over the last century, especially along the West coast (Buishand et al, 2013). The increase in sea surface temperatures and changes in circulation seem to be the major causes of this increase (Attema et al, 2014;van Haren et al, 2013). In addition, there is some evidence that urbanization plays a role (Daniels et al, 2015b).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Relative impacts of land use and climate change on summer precipitation in the Netherlands

Daniels

Lenderink

Hutjes

et al. 2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The effects of historic and future land use on precipitation in the Netherlands are investigated on 18 summer days with similar meteorological conditions. The days are selected with a circulation type classification and a clustering procedure to obtain a homogenous set of days that is expected to favor land impacts. Changes in precipitation are investigated in relation to the present-day climate and land use, and from the perspective of future climate and land use. To that end, the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model is used with land use maps for 1900, 2000, and 2040. In addition, a temperature perturbation of +1 • C assuming constant relative humidity is imposed as a surrogate climate change scenario. Decreases in precipitation of, respectively, 3-5 and 2-5 % are simulated following conversion of historic to present, and present to future, land use. The temperature perturbation under present land use conditions increases precipitation amounts by on average 7-8 % and amplifies precipitation intensity. However, when also considering future land use, the increase is reduced to 2-6 % on average, and no intensification of extreme precipitation is simulated. In all, the simulated effects of land use changes on precipitation in summer are smaller than the effects of climate change, but are not negligible.

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Future changes to the intensity and frequency of short-duration extreme rainfall

et al. 2014

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Evidence that extreme rainfall intensity is increasing at the global scale has strengthened considerably in recent years. Research now indicates that the greatest increases are likely to occur in short-duration storms lasting less than a day, potentially leading to an increase in the magnitude and frequency of flash floods. This review examines the evidence for subdaily extreme rainfall intensification due to anthropogenic climate change and describes our current physical understanding of the association between subdaily extreme rainfall intensity and atmospheric temperature. We also examine the nature, quality, and quantity of information needed to allow society to adapt successfully to predicted future changes, and discuss the roles of observational and modeling studies in helping us to better understand the physical processes that can influence subdaily extreme rainfall characteristics. We conclude by describing the types of research required to produce a more thorough understanding of the relationships between local-scale thermodynamic effects, large-scale atmospheric circulation, and subdaily extreme rainfall intensity.

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Extreme precipitation response to climate perturbations in an atmospheric mesoscale model

Cited by 58 publications

References 35 publications

Urban impacts on air temperature and precipitation over The Netherlands

Urban impacts on air temperature and precipitation over The Netherlands

Relative impacts of land use and climate change on summer precipitation in the Netherlands

Future changes to the intensity and frequency of short-duration extreme rainfall

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