Relative impacts of land use and climate change on summer precipitation in the Netherlands

Abstract

Abstract. The effects of historic and future land use on precipitation in the Netherlands are investigated on 18 summer days with similar meteorological conditions. The days are selected with a circulation type classification and a clustering procedure to obtain a homogenous set of days that is expected to favor land impacts. Changes in precipitation are investigated in relation to the present-day climate and land use, and from the perspective of future climate and land use. To that end, the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model is used with land use maps for 1900, 2000, and 2040. In addition, a temperature perturbation of +1 • C assuming constant relative humidity is imposed as a surrogate climate change scenario. Decreases in precipitation of, respectively, 3-5 and 2-5 % are simulated following conversion of historic to present, and present to future, land use. The temperature perturbation under present land use conditions increases precipitation amounts by on average 7-8 % and amplifies precipitation intensity. However, when also considering future land use, the increase is reduced to 2-6 % on average, and no intensification of extreme precipitation is simulated. In all, the simulated effects of land use changes on precipitation in summer are smaller than the effects of climate change, but are not negligible.

Variability of Precipitation in Arid Climates Using the Wavelet Approach: Case Study of Watershed of Gabes in South-East Tunisia

“…It resulted in weather condition alterations and climatic extremes. Potential climate change can affect the hydrological cycle largely through changes in spatio-temporal patterns of precipitation [2][3][4], increase of temperatures [5], frequent occurrence of hydrological extremes, such as floods and drought [6], rise of sea level [7], reduction of snow cover and changes in soil moisture [8], etc. Undoubtedly, semi-arid and arid areas of the Mediterranean Basin are among the zones affected by climate change [9].…”

Spatial and Temporal Changes in Temperature, Precipitation, and Streamflow in the Miyun Reservoir Basin of China

“…Specifically, the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on the decrease in precipitation was remarkable in summer and was possibly caused by the influence of aerosols on convective precipitation in North China [50]. Daniels et al [49] used a regional climate model to simulate the effect of land use changes on precipitation in the Netherlands, and found that the simulated effects of land use changes on precipitation in summer are smaller than the effects of climate change, but are not negligible. Thus, it is difficult to directly compare the variations in precipitation indices in the MRB to other studies.…”

A multi-model approach to monitor emissions of CO<sub>2</sub> and CO from an urban–industrial complex

“…Domains 2-4 zoom in on the Rijnmond area in the southwest of the Netherlands. Based on previous studies over the Netherlands (Bozhinova et al, 2014;Daniels et al, 2016;Steeneveld et al, 2014), we have used the Yonsei University (YSU) boundary layer scheme (Hong et al, 2006), the Dudhia scheme for shortwave radiation (Dudhia, 1989), the Rapid Radiation Transfer Model (RRTM) as the longwave radiation scheme (Mlawer et al, 1997) and the Unified Noah Land-Surface Model as the surface physics scheme (Ek et al, 2003). We also used the single-layer urban canopy model (UCM) to account for changes in roughness length and heat fluxes in the urban environment , although the impact of the UCM model on simulated mixing ratios is very small in our domain.…”