Extreme heat reduces and shifts United States premium wine production in the 21st century

1,619

978

The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders,

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confidence: 99%

Adapting agriculture to climate change

Howden¹,

Soussana

Tubiello

et al. 2007

1,619

978

“…vinecology | wildlife | ecosystem services V iticulture is famously sensitive to climate (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8) and changes in wine production have been used as a proxy to elucidate past climate change (9). Temperature and moisture regimes are among the primary elements of terroir (10,11), with growing season temperature being particularly important in delimiting regions suitable for growing wine grapes (Vitis vinifera).…”

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confidence: 99%

Climate change, wine, and conservation

Lee

Roehrdanz

Ikegami

et al. 2013

603

432

Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots. Here we demonstrate that, on a global scale, the impacts of climate change on viticultural suitability are substantial, leading to possible conservation conflicts in land use and freshwater ecosystems. Area suitable for viticulture decreases 25% to 73% in major wine producing regions by 2050 in the higher RCP 8.5 concentration pathway and 19% to 62% in the lower RCP 4.5. Climate change may cause establishment of vineyards at higher elevations that will increase impacts on upland ecosystems and may lead to conversion of natural vegetation as production shifts to higher latitudes in areas such as western North America. Attempts to maintain wine grape productivity and quality in the face of warming may be associated with increased water use for irrigation and to cool grapes through misting or sprinkling, creating potential for freshwater conservation impacts. Agricultural adaptation and conservation efforts are needed that anticipate these multiple possible indirect effects.

“…At their most severe, extreme climate events, such as the mid-American heat waves of 1980 and 2011 and the 2003 European heat wave, involve months of hot, dry weather (3,4), increasing mortality in humans and wildlife (5,6) while reducing agricultural and natural-systems productivity (7)(8)(9)(10)). An increase in climate extremes would have unambiguously negative effects on ecosystems.…”

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confidence: 99%

Timing of climate variability and grassland productivity

Craine

Nippert

Elmore

et al. 2012

268

177

Future climates are forecast to include greater precipitation variability and more frequent heat waves, but the degree to which the timing of climate variability impacts ecosystems is uncertain. In a temperate, humid grassland, we examined the seasonal impacts of climate variability on 27 y of grass productivity. Drought and highintensity precipitation reduced grass productivity only during a 110-d period, whereas high temperatures reduced productivity only during 25 d in July. The effects of drought and heat waves declined over the season and had no detectable impact on grass productivity in August. If these patterns are general across ecosystems, predictions of ecosystem response to climate change will have to account not only for the magnitude of climate variability but also for its timing.Konza | net primary production | streamflow | critical climate periods F uture climates are likely to include more frequent droughts, high-intensity precipitation patterns, and heat waves, (i.e., periods of elevated air temperatures) (1, 2). At their most severe, extreme climate events, such as the mid-American heat waves of 1980 and 2011 and the 2003 European heat wave, involve months of hot, dry weather (3, 4), increasing mortality in humans and wildlife (5, 6) while reducing agricultural and natural-systems productivity (7-10). An increase in climate extremes would have unambiguously negative effects on ecosystems. However, most climate variability would not be considered extreme and occurs on much shorter time scales throughout the growing season with temperature and precipitation frequently disassociated. The response of ecosystems to short-term climate variability at different times of year is thought to vary (11-16), but we know little about how the timing of short-duration climate variability impacts key ecosystem dynamics such as plant productivity.To understand better how the timing of climate variability affects grassland productivity, we applied the critical climate period approach (17, 18) to long-term measurements of grass productivity in a humid, temperate grassland. Aboveground net primary productivity of grass (ANPP G ) was measured at the time of peak standing biomass from 1984-2010 in both shallow-soil upland and deep-soil lowland topographic positions in an annually burned, ungrazed watershed that is dominated by grasses with the C 4 photosynthetic pathway. In attempting to understand how the timing of climate variability affects grass productivity, we analyzed long-term records of precipitation, stream discharge, and air temperature to examine how variation in drought, precipitation intensity, and heat waves affect grass productivity at different times of the growing season. Results and DiscussionAcross 27 y, drought reduced grass productivity over a wide range of dates but had declining effects as the season progressed. ANPP G decreased with decreasing precipitation summed from April 15 to August 2 [day of year (DOY) 105-214] (Fig. 1). ANPP G declined 0.60 ± 0.12 g·m −2 for each millimeter decline in p...