Extreme Events Assessment Methodology Coupling Debris Flow, Flooding and Tidal Levels in the Coastal Floodplain of the São Paulo North Coast (Brazil)

Abstract

The North Coastal Region of the State of São Paulo, which comprises the Municipalities of Caraguatatuba, São Sebastião, Ilhabela and Ubatuba, is one of the most prone to flooding and debris flow deposition Brazilian areas, owing to hydrological extreme rainfall events usually coupled with extreme tidal levels. This risk is also high due to human lives and material assets, with increasing population rates and the establishment of large companies such as the Oil industry, with reduced defense/prevention measures and works. The catastrophic scenario of the city of Caraguatatuba, in March 1967, resulting from one of the most serious natural disasters in Brazil, fosters discussions about probabilities of heavy rainfall-caused events and rise in the sea level in coastal areas. Hence, this research is a consequence of this reality. The research is founded on an innovative methodology based on the analysis of past data of rainfall and tidal stations, complemented with debris flow registers in the region of the north coastal zone of the State of São Paulo (Brazil). The anaysis developed involved the meteorological, hydraulic, geotechnical and statistical knowledge areas. Practical results are intended to be used for urban planning, designs of macro-drainage, fluvial, maritime projects and debris flow retention structures. These practical applications will then associate the probability of occurrence of certain types of heavy rainfall-caused events such as flooding or debris flow coupled with a corresponding increase in tidal levels.