Extreme Climatic Variability in North-western Nigeria: An Analysis of Rainfall Trends and Patterns

Abstract

Some aspects of the climate of north-western Nigeria were examined in this study, focusing more on rainfall, its inter-and intra-annual variability and patterns of distribution. Adopting the statistical distributions commonly used to describe climate states such as the mean, the standard deviation and the coefficient of variability, the climate of north-western Nigeria was analyzed for possible shifts in mean conditions and patterns. The study found that climatic conditions in north-western Nigeria have altered substantially as four drought episodes took place within the last three decades of the 20 th Century and, the 1984 drought-year rainfall was 58.8 percent lower than the long-term mean rainfall. The study further showed that the 1968 to 2008 mean rainfall shifted downwards by 8.8 percent from the long-term mean, although it cannot be said if the shift is permanent or temporary since recent rainfall trends tend to suggest a recovery. Possible options for stabilizing the regional climate are suggested.

Detecting Changes in Hydro-Climatic Variables during the Last Four Decades (1975-2014) on Downstream Kaduna River Catchment, Nigeria

“…Interconnections between the climate system, water cycle, biophysical and socioeconomic systems are complex, so a change in any one invariably induces change in others. Notably, climate change is likely to accelerate the global hydrological cycles, and a greater increase is expected in extreme rainfall as compared to the mean [7] and higher temperatures it will increase evaporation. In fact, temperature, evapo-transpiration and rainfall changes mainly influence the distribution of river flows and groundwater recharge [8].…”

Analysis of Rainfall Variations in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria

“…Ekpoh, & Nsa [8] examined Some aspects of the climate of north-western Nigeria, focusing more on rainfall, its inter-and intra-annual variability and patterns of distribution. The authors adopted some statistical tools commonly used to describe climatic conditions.…”

“…Rainfall variability refers to variations in the mean state and other rainfall statistics on all spatial and temporal scales beyond that of individual precipitation events Azuwike & Enwereuzor [7] noted that rain is a renewable resource, highly variable in space and time and subject to depletion or enhancement due to both natural and anthropogenic causes. According to the authors, rainfall (pattern) as a climatic factor is known to be changing worldwide and there has been growing concern as to the direction and effects of the changes on settlement and infrastructures Ekpoh, & Nsa [8] noted there is sufficient evidence of rising global temperatures due to increased emission of greenhouse gases: Carbon dioxide, Nitrous oxide, Methane and Chlorofluorocarbons into the atmosphere, arguing that the increased global warming has the capacity to trigger large-scale climatic disturbances, which ultimately may have significant impact on the rainfall. These green house gases are mostly encountered during oil exploration process, chief among these is gas flaring.…”

Trend Analysis of Climate Variability over the West Bank - East London Area, South Africa (1975-2011)

“…Also Ekpoh and Nsa (2011) have argued that anthropogenic climate change may as well increase the likelihood of such events occurring (e.g. increase in temperature).…”

“…However, the reality is that the effects, risks and uncertainty with the science around the subject of climate change are daunting, challenging and complex to understand. This is perhaps true that the issue of climate change is the most controversial in the entire science of meteorology (Ekpoh & Nsa, 2011). In the recent years the potential impacts of Climate Variability and Change (CVC) have received considerable attention from researchers and as such, both temporal and spatial dimensions have been documented based on rainfall and temperature climate parameters across the world (e.g., Jury, 2013;Kenawy et al, 2009;López-Moreno et al, 2009;Helmes et al, 1996).…”