Extracting and converting quantitative data into human error probabilities

Tran, Tuan Q.; Boring, Ronald L.; Joe, Jeffrey C.; Griffith, Candice D.

doi:10.1109/hfpp.2007.4413200

Cited by 5 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 3 publications

(3 reference statements)

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“…HRA methods are designed to assess the probability of a human-originated system failure, commonly referred to as Human Error Probability (HEP). There is a long list of HRA methods including THERP [27]- [30], SLIM [31], CREAM [32], [33], ATHEANA [34], [35], IDAC [36], HEART [37], [38] SPAR-H [39] and HERA [40].…”

Section: A Human Reliability Contextmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effect of Psychotropic Drugs as a Performance Influencing Factor on Human Reliability Assessment

et al. 2020

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The increasing use/abuse of psychotropic drugs is an alarming social phenomenon with repercusions in many areas, especially in reliability engineering. The aim of this paper is to present a method developed by a multidisciplinary team composed of ergonomists, psychiatrists, information technologists, and reliability engineers to quantitatively consider the impact of psychotropic drugs on the assessment of human reliability of Operation and Maintenance (O&M) personnel of a hydroelectric plant. To achieve the proposed objective, the first step was the identification of drugs that affect the psychic-cognitive/sensory and motor functions as a side effect and the frequency (probability of occurrence) of the effect. This was done mining public and private drug databases. A qualitative (symbolic) scale later translated into numerical values was used to quantify the impact of each drug on the affected functions. At the same time, O&M tasks were broken down into observable activity sequences, recording the frequency of each activity on each task (Task Analysis). Then, the relationship between each activity and the sensory-cognitive-motor psychic functions was established, based on the knowledge and experience of the team involved. Again a qualitative (symbolic) scale was defined and later transformed into a numerical scale. As a result, the first version of a drug effect-task knowledge database (KDB) was built with the symbolic and numerical values assigned to all relationships between the different model elements. Although the KDB needs to be systematically reviewed and updated by a broader network of ergonomists and psychiatrists, it has served as proof of concept and a starting point for the development of a human risk management tool for hydroelectric power plants. The last step was to calculate a new Performance Shaping Factor (PSF) due to Psychotropic Drugs Use (PDU), for each drug in each of the O&M tasks. In a preliminary assessment of the inclusion of PDU-PSF with three common methods of Human Reliability Assessment (HRA), we found an increased risk of human failure ranging from approximately 15% to 35%, depending on the HRA method. The case study used to illustrate the method considered a routine operator inspection task using an antidepressant drug. The proposed method can be updated for new drugs and can be refined/customized for other high-risk human activities such as oil and gas and petrochemical industries, nuclear power plants, aviation, and surgery, among others. INDEX TERMS Human error analysis, reliability, task analysis, psychotropic drugs, human reliability.

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Section: A Human Reliability Contextmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effect of Psychotropic Drugs as a Performance Influencing Factor on Human Reliability Assessment

et al. 2020

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“…Two interrelationships have been recognized: (1) the effect of one PSF on another PSF; and (2) the influence of a PSF on the effect of another PSF on human performance. (15,27,29,63) The first re-lationship can be understood as mediating effects or dependency of PSFs. For example, time pressure mediated the relationship between time availability and HEP in this study.…”

Section: Interrelationships Between Multiple Psfsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These data can be obtained from operational practice and event reports, cognitive simulations, such as the Man‐Machine Integration Design and Analysis System (MIDAS) and the Information, Decision, Action in Crew context (IDAC) model, and expert judgment . Researchers working on HRA have also been focusing increasingly on analyzing and refining empirical data from simulator studies . Simulators can be roughly classified into two types: microworld simulators and full‐scope simulators .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(10) Unfortunately, one of the greatest challenges encountered in using HRA methods is the absence of data, (11)(12)(13) including data on (1) basic human error probability (HEP); (2) the effect of an individual performance shaping factor (PSF) on the HEP; and (3) the interrelationships between multiple PSFs and their combined effects on the HEP. (14,15) The scarcity of data contributes to the uncertainty and variability of the HRA outcomes and, consequently, the uncertainty and variability in PSA analysis. (12) One possible solution is to use data from various sources to inform HRA.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(22) Researchers working on HRA have also been focusing increasingly on analyzing and refining empirical data from simulator studies. (12,14,15,23,24) Simulators can be roughly classified into two types: microworld simulators and fullscope simulators. (12) The former are also called lowfidelity or compact simulators and usually operated by nonlicensed operators (e.g., university students).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Human Error Data Collection and Comparison with Predictions by SPAR‐H

Liu

2014

Risk Analysis

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There is a scarcity of empirical data on human error for human reliability analysis (HRA). This situation can increase the variability and impair the validity of HRA outcomes in risk analysis. In this work, a microworld study was used to investigate the effects of performance shaping factors (PSFs) and their interrelationships and combined effects on the human error probability (HEP). The PSFs involved were task complexity, time availability, experience, and time pressure. The empirical data obtained were compared with predictions by the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-Human Reliability Method (SPAR-H) and data from other sources. The comparison included three aspects: (1) HEP, (2) relative effects of the PSFs, and (3) error types. Results showed that the HEP decreased with experience and time availability levels. The significant relationship between task complexity and the HEP depended on time availability and experience, and time availability affected the HEP through time pressure. The empirical HEPs were higher than the HEPs predicted by SPAR-H under different PSF combinations, showing the tendency of SPAR-H to produce relatively optimistic results in our study. The relative effects of two PSFs (i.e., experience/training and stress/stressors) in SPAR-H agreed to some extent with those in our study. Several error types agreed well with those from operational experience and a database for nuclear power plants (NPPs).

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