Extinction Risk of Pseudotsuga Menziesii Populations in the Central Region of Mexico: An AHP Analysis

Abstract

Within the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) framework, a hierarchical model was created considering anthropogenic, genetic and ecological criteria and sub-criteria that directly affect Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.)) risk of extinction in central Mexico. The sub-criteria values were standardized, weighted, and ordered by importance in a pairwise comparison matrix; the model was mathematically integrated to quantify the degree of extinction risk for each of the 29 populations present in the study area. The results indicate diverse levels of risk for the populations, ranging from very low to very high. Estanzuela, Presa Jaramillo, Peñas Cargadas and Plan del Baile populations have very low risk, with values less than 0.25. On the other hand, Vicente Guerrero, Morán, Minatitlán, La Garita and Tonalapa populations have very high risk (>0.35) because they are heavily influenced by anthropogenic (close to roads and towns), ecological (presence of exotic species and little or no natural regeneration) and genetic (presence of mature to overmature trees and geographic isolation) factors. In situ conservation activities, prioritizing their implementation in populations at most risk is highly recommended; in addition, germplasm collection for use of assisted gene flow and migration approaches, including artificial OPEN ACCESSForests 2015, 6 1599 reforestation, should be considered in these locations.

Recent evidence of Mexican temperate forest decline and the need for ex situ conservation, assisted migration, and translocation of species ensembles as adaptive management to face projected climatic change impacts in a megadiverse country

“…Franco hardly survived in central and southern Mexico after the last ice age. The end of the last glacial period forced this species to shift from south to north and upwards in elevation in the mountains (Li and Adams 1989), which led to a fragmented and discontinuous distribution among just a few mountainous areas of Mexico (López-Upton et al 2015). In Mexico, this conifer is listed as protected by the Mexican government, which acts to severely restrict logging (López-Upton et al 2015), although it is mainly used for Christmas tree plantations.…”

“…For Pseudotsuga menziesii, conservation strategies for populations in central Mexico have been proposed based on information from genetic, demographic, and risk studies conducted in each population (Ventura-Ríos et al 2010;López-Upton et al 2015). Some populations present a very high extinction risk (following an analytic hierarchy process; López-Upton et al 2015) and should have priority for conservation considering the real possibility of losing their gene pool in the case of extreme events.…”

Diversity and Genetic Structure Inferred with Microsatellites in Natural Populations of Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco (Pinaceae) in the Central Region of Mexico

“…Knowledge of genetic diversity values and population genetic differentiation is essential to identifying current threats and elucidating mechanisms to protect endangered species [65,66]. The results of this study show that the central populations of P. menziessi analyzed still harbor significant levels of genetic diversity, despite the fragmentation status, illegal exploitation, overgrazing, inappropriate cone collecting, pest attack, and climate change [67]. Given these precedents, it is imperative in situ conservation strategies be set up for natural populations with high genetic diversity and private alleles, particularly for populations Carbonero Jacales (He = 0.383, N P = 5), La Barranca (He = 0.371, N P = 4), Tlalmotolo (He = 0.365, N P = 1), La Rosa (He = 0.364, N P = 3), and Cuatemoxla (He = 0.320, N P = 2).…”

An Updated Review of Dendrochronological Investigations in Mexico, a Megadiverse Country with a High Potential for Tree-Ring Sciences

“…(Pr), Pinus lagunae (Rob.-Pass.) Passini (Pr), P. menziesii (Pr) [29] and Pinus pinceana Gordon & Glend. (P) (Figure 4).…”