Extinction-risk coverage is worth inaccuracies

Lee, Hannah; Phillips, Brad

doi:10.1038/430141a

Cited by 11 publications

(7 citation statements)

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“…The use of so-called bioclimate envelope models to capture the relationship between species distributions and climate space and thereby to model future responses to climate change has advanced considerably in the last few years. Yet, the sensitivity to key assumptions is such that the resulting bioclimate envelope modelling projections are so uncertain as to effectively compromise their practical value (compare Buckley & Roughgarden, 2004;Thomas et al, 2004;Thuiller et al, 2004) notwithstanding the wider impact they may have (Ladle et al, 2004;Hannah & Phillips, 2004). These models should be seen as providing merely interesting 'what if ' scenarios, until such time as we find ways of assessing model variability and reliability quantitatively (Hannah et al, 2002;Pearson & Dawson, 2003.…”

Section: (Iii) Effects Of Model Structure and Parameterisationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Conservation Biogeography: assessment and prospect

Whittaker

Araújo

Jepson

et al. 2005

Diversity and Distributions

1,057

874

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There is general agreement among scientists that biodiversity is under assault on a global basis and that species are being lost at a greatly enhanced rate. This article examines the role played by biogeographical science in the emergence of conservation guidance and makes the case for the recognition of Conservation Biogeography as a key subfield of conservation biology delimited as: the application of biogeographical principles, theories, and analyses, being those concerned with the distributional dynamics of taxa individually and collectively, to problems concerning the conservation of biodiversity. Conservation biogeography thus encompasses both a substantial body of theory and analysis, and some of the most prominent planning frameworks used in conservation. Considerable advances in conservation guidelines have been made over the last few decades by applying biogeographical methods and principles. Herein we provide a critical review focussed on the sensitivity to assumptions inherent in the applications we examine. In particular, we focus on four inter-related factors: (i) scale dependency (both spatial and temporal); (ii) inadequacies in taxonomic and distributional data (the so-called Linnean and Wallacean shortfalls); (iii) effects of model structure and parameterisation; and (iv) inadequacies of theory. These generic problems are illustrated by reference to studies ranging from the application of historical biogeography, through island biogeography, and complementarity analyses to bioclimatic envelope modelling. There is a great deal of uncertainty inherent in predictive analyses in conservation biogeography and this area in particular presents considerable challenges.Protected area planning frameworks and their resulting map outputs are amongst the most powerful and influential applications within conservation biogeography, and at the global scale are characterised by the production, by a small number of prominent NGOs, of bespoke schemes, which serve both to mobilise funds and channel efforts in a highly targeted fashion. We provide a simple typology of protected area planning frameworks, with particular reference to the global scale, and provide a brief critique of some of their strengths and weaknesses. Finally, we discuss the importance, especially at regional scales, of developing more responsive analyses and models that integrate pattern (the compositionalist approach) and processes (the functionalist approach) such as range collapse and climate change, again noting the sensitivity of outcomes to starting assumptions. We make the case for the greater engagement of the biogeographical community in a programme of evaluation and refinement of all such schemes to test their robustness and their sensitivity to alternative conservation priorities and goals.

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Section: (Iii) Effects Of Model Structure and Parameterisationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Conservation Biogeography: assessment and prospect

Whittaker

Araújo

Jepson

et al. 2005

Diversity and Distributions

1,057

874

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“…Popular coverage of the Thomas et al paper has been criticized (Hannah & Phillips 2004;Ladle et al 2004). Most scientists would probably agree that the media in a few cases got the 'wrong end of the stick', but that the majority of the reporting was reasonably clear and balanced.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change, species–area curves and the extinction crisis

Lewis

2005

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

109

100

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an international team of biologists predicted that climate change would, by 2050, doom 15-37% of the earth's species to extinction-attracted unprecedented, worldwide media attention. The predictions conflict with the conventional wisdom that habitat change and modification are the most important causes of current and future extinctions. The new extinction projections come from applying a well-known ecological pattern, the species-area relationship (SAR), to data on the current distributions and climatic requirements of 1103 species. Here, I examine the scientific basis to the claims made in the Nature article. I first highlight the potential and pitfalls of using the SAR to predict extinctions in general. I then consider the additional complications that arise when applying SAR methods specifically to climate change. I assess the extent to which these issues call into question predictions of extinctions from climate change relative to other human impacts, and highlight a danger that conservation resources will be directed away from attempts to slow and mitigate the continuing effects of habitat destruction and degradation, particularly in the tropics. I suggest that the most useful contributions of ecologists over the coming decades will be in partitioning likely extinctions among interacting causes and identifying the practical means to slow the rate of species loss.

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“…Linnean extinctions are also especially prone to exaggeration, misrepresentation, and indiscriminate use in conservation advocacy. Leading conservation scientists such as Norman Myers have admitted to providing high estimates of extinction to put them onto scientific and political agendas 2 , while others publicly condone misrepresentation if it gets the message across (Hannah & Phillips 2004). One of the World's highest-profile conservation organizations, Conservation International, has a constantly running extinction "clock" 3 which has racked up over 26,000 extinctions in the 6 months taken to complete this essay!…”

Section: The Agency Of Extinction In Conservationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Toward a biocultural theory of avoided extinction

Ladle

Jepson

2008

Conservation Letters

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Avoiding extinction is one of the main aims of the global conservation movement and its study has historically been dominated by ecological thinking about the consequences of small population size and the identification of the proximate causes of population decline. Here we argue that any successful theorization on avoiding extinction has to look beyond ecology to incorporate the behavior of conservationists, conservation organizations, and other societal actors. We develop a "biocultural" framework based on a typology of extinction that emphasizes the different meanings and power of the term and discuss how these might inform more effective global conservation policy and practice. Seen through a biocultural perspective, we argue that extinction will only be effectively reduced when scientific evidence, cultural frames, institutional frameworks, and organizational interests align.

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Extinction-risk coverage is worth inaccuracies

Cited by 11 publications

References 0 publications

Conservation Biogeography: assessment and prospect

Conservation Biogeography: assessment and prospect

Climate change, species–area curves and the extinction crisis

Toward a biocultural theory of avoided extinction

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