Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to support local adaptation planning—A climate service for Flensburg, Germany

Reimann, Lena; Vollstedt, Bente; Koerth, Jana; Tsakiris, Maureen; Beer, Martin; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2020.102691

Cited by 26 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…And while the SSPs address key socioeconomic drivers of climate change, the global SSPs do not address the nature of changes to the built environment, critical to understanding future vulnerabilities and consequences of different urban futures, nor do they speak to concerns that are prominent in city-life such as those relating to diversity, racial justice, or migration. Recent work to extend these narratives to regions (e.g., Absar and Preston 2015;Reimann et al, 2021) and cities (e.g., Kamei et al, 2016;Lino et al, 2019;Rohat et al, 2021) are just beginning to emerge. Similarly, other scholars use a visioning process to generate plausible scenarios for climate-adaptation futures-these tend to adopt a businessas-usual future (one of the five SSPs) along with stakeholderdriven framings to envision the future (Iwaniec et al, 2020b;Hamstead et al, 2021b).…”

Section: Population Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Frameworks to envision equitable urban futures in a changing climate: A multi-level, multidisciplinary case study of New York City

Balk

Daniela²,

Jiang³

et al. 2022

Front. Built Environ.

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Cities are at the forefront of climate change action and planning for futures that are concomitantly more resilient and equitable, making local goals imperative for global sustainability. Under the multiple challenges of changing climatic, ecological and socio-economic conditions, cities need the means to meet these goals. We know cities are and will continue to be points of concentrated and diverse populations, socioeconomic vulnerability, amplified exposure, transformed ecosystems and are responsible for the bulk of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. Yet, much is also unknown and intrinsically uncertain about urban futures: there is a range of potential plausible futures which have differing implications for both potential mitigation and adaptation actions. To better assess these plausible futures, the “global change” research community developed a framework including scenarios that are applicable for global and regional policy, entitled the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and scenarios exploring future emissions that will drive climate change, entitled Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Importantly, this global scale framework does not include specific city-level perspectives or data at the spatial scales necessary to address questions of local relevance. While the SSPs address many of the key population and socioeconomic drivers of climate change, they do not address important concerns that are particularly relevant to cities, such as racial justice, ecosystem change or migration. Nevertheless, city-level impacts will evolve, in part, as a function of the global scale change characterized by the SSPs, and in part based on demographic and social processes already underway. As such, applying a modification of this framework to cities has the potential to help limit local climate impacts, and create a more resilient, equitable city. To address these needs and respond to city and regional stakeholders, we propose a framework for science-based narratives and quantitative projections for cities and metropolitan areas, such as Greater New York City. In this paper, we review a wide-range of existing approaches to generate estimates of future populations and identify their vulnerabilities to climate-change hazards, ranging from subnational population projections or the spatially-explicit allocation of populations linked to SSPs for the US and selected cities, city-specific population forecasting without climate considerations, and participatory approaches to future scenario development and fine-scale, within-city land use change models. By showcasing the strengths and limitations of various approaches and modeling efforts, their spatial and temporal scales, and thematic breadth, we propose a novel framework that leverages state-of-the art quantitative approaches and couples it with stakeholder engagement that can help cities plan equitably under uncertainty.

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Section: Population Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Frameworks to envision equitable urban futures in a changing climate: A multi-level, multidisciplinary case study of New York City

Balk

Daniela²,

Jiang³

et al. 2022

Front. Built Environ.

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“…Available online: http://data.cma.cn accessed on 1 December 2021) and the product of the 6th Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Pathway (CMIP6) was used to represent future climate scenarios. CMIP6 is based on a number of shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenarios, proposed by the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) in the 6th assessment report [13,35]. Data for six climate scenarios from 2020 to 2050 were downloaded and statistically downscaled from the UKESM1 model (0.5 × 0.5 • ) output (Climate scenario dataset: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk accessed on 16 December 2021) for the study site.…”

Section: Historic Weather Data and Future Climate Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yield of Winter Wheat (Triticum aestivum) and Maize (Zea mays) and Soil Organic Carbon Stocks in Northern China

et al. 2022

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Agricultural system models provide an effective tool for forecasting crop productivity and nutrient budgets under future climate change. This study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on crop failure, grain yield and soil organic carbon (SOC) for both winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and maize (Zea mays L.) in northern China, using the SPACSYS model. The model was calibrated and validated with datasets from 20-year long-term experiments (1985–2004) for the Loess plateau, and then used to forecast production (2020–2049) under six sharing social-economic pathway climate scenarios for both wheat and maize crops with irrigation. Results suggested that warmer climatic scenarios might be favourable for reducing the crop failure rate and increasing the grain yield for winter wheat, while the same climatic scenarios were unfavourable for maize production in the region. Furthermore, future SOC stocks in the topsoil layer (0–30 cm) could increase but in the subsoil layer (30–100 cm) could decrease, regardless of the chosen crop.

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“…Downscaled climate data provided a basis for identifying and assessing suitable adaptation options (Table 2; National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, 2017) and with multiple scenario combinations. In other case studies, authors have used multiple scenarios in discussions with stakeholders, focusing on different combinations of drivers to quantify and evaluate management options (Lino et al, 2019;Reimann et al, 2021). In our experience, trying to test multiple possible worlds in a workshop setting can require more time to explore each scenario than is available as participants can struggle to accommodate several scenarios in a short time.…”

Section: Climate Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Principles and process for developing participatory adaptation pathways in the primary industries

Cradock-Henry

Blackett

Connolly³

et al. 2021

Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene

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Adaptation pathways is an approach to identify, assess, and sequence climate change adaptation options over time, linking decisions to critical signals and triggers derived from scenarios of future conditions. However, conceptual differences in their development can hinder methodological advance and create a disconnect between those applying pathways approaches and the wider community of practitioners undertaking vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation assessments. Here, we contribute to close these gaps, advancing principles, and processes that may be used to guide the trajectory for adaptation pathways, without having to rely on data-rich or resource-intensive methods. To achieve this, concepts and practices from the broad pathways literature is combined with our own experience in developing adaptation pathways for primary industries facing the combined impacts of climate change and other, nonclimatic stressors. Each stage is guided by a goal and tools to facilitate discussions and produce feasible pathways. We illustrate the process with a case study from Hawke’s Bay, New Zealand, involving multiple data sources and methods in two catchments. Resulting guidelines and empirical examples are consistent with principles of adaptive management and planning and can provide a template for developing local-, regional- or issue-specific pathways elsewhere and enrich the diversity of vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation assessment practice.

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Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to support local adaptation planning—A climate service for Flensburg, Germany

Cited by 26 publications

References 69 publications

Frameworks to envision equitable urban futures in a changing climate: A multi-level, multidisciplinary case study of New York City

Frameworks to envision equitable urban futures in a changing climate: A multi-level, multidisciplinary case study of New York City

Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yield of Winter Wheat (Triticum aestivum) and Maize (Zea mays) and Soil Organic Carbon Stocks in Northern China

Principles and process for developing participatory adaptation pathways in the primary industries

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