Extending the boundaries of climate change research: A discussion on agriculture

Chiotti, Q.; Johnston, Tom

doi:10.1016/0743-0167(95)00023-g

“…agriculture, forestry), is becoming an increasingly important issue. Within the climate change research community, general consensus has been reached recognizing the serious implications of potential changes in climate, especially the combined effects of elevated temperatures, increased atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, increased probability of extreme events (droughts, floods), and the possibility of reduced cropwater availability on the agricultural sector (Chiotti & Johnston 1995, IPCC 1995. Climate influences crop growth and yields directly through impacts on phenology, photosynthesis, and other physiological processes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of winter wheat yields in the Midwestern United States to future changes in climate, climate variability, and CO2 fertilization

Southworth

¹

,

Pfeifer²,

Habeck³

et al. 2002

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This research investigates the potential impacts of climate change on winter wheat Triticum aestiuum L. production, looking at changes both in the mean climate and in climate variability, under conditions of elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. The study region is comprised of the 5 states of Indiana, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin in the US. This analysis was conducted for the period 2050-59 for 10 representative farm locations in the 5 states for 6 future climate scenarios using the crop growth model CERES-Wheat. Wheat is currently the most widely grown crop in the world, with approximately 250 million ha planted each year. This region, while not a critical area for winter wheat production under current climate, is in a marginal area that could become a more important production region under a warmer climate. As such, the impacts of climate change on wheat growth are of great significance both regionally and globally. With future atmospheric CO 2 concentrations of 555 ppmv, wheat yields increased 60 to 100% above current yields across the central and northern areas of the study region when modeled for 2050-59 climate change scenarios. In the southern areas of the study region, small increases (0.1 to 20%) and small decreases (-0.1 to -15%) were found. These decreases in yield were more frequent under climate conditions associated with the more extreme Hadley Center greenhouse gas run (HadCM2-GHG, representing a 1% increase in greenhouse gases per year) and for the doubled climate variability analyses. Across all sites, earlier planting dates (September 2 is optimal) performed best; yields decreased as planting was delayed. These results have implications for spring-planted crops. CO 2 fertilization effects also are found to be significant for wheat, representing an average yield increase greater than 20% under future climate scenarios, with greater benefits occurring under more moderate future climate scenarios. Without the effects of CO 2 fertilization in the model, many of the southern locations had greater decreases in yields. The overall climate change impact across the study area resulted in large increases in yields with only a few locations exhibiting decreases, and those decreases occurring only under the more extreme climate scenarios. KEY WORDS: Midwestern United States · Winter wheat · Carbon dioxide · HadCM2 model · CERES-Wheat · Climate variabilityResale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher Clim Res 22: 73-86, 2002 Johnston 1995, IPCC 1995). Climate influences crop growth and yields directly through impacts on phenology, photosynthesis, and other physiological processes. Indirect effects relate to nutrient availability, weeds, pests and diseases, and ability of farmers to work in the field (field days). These effects will be modified by moisture availability and temperature ranges (Olesen et al. 2000).With respect to agriculture, changes in solar radiation, temperature, and precipitation will produce changes in crop yields, crop mix, cr...

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“…Agriculturalists, in general, are expected to adapt to climate change, and some studies already have been conducted to assess farmers' climate perceptions and adaptation strategies (Brklacich et al, 2000;Chiotti and Johnston, 1995). However, nothing was so far made in Brazil with respect to the estimation of the impact in the pastoral beef cattle production.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of global warming on beef cattle production cost in Brazil

Nääs

¹

,

Romanini

²

,

Salgado

³

et al. 2010

Sci. agric. (Piracicaba, Braz.)

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Global warming is affecting agribusiness in its economic aspects. Therefore, the prediction of the evolution of Brazilian beef cattle production cost was made using the IPCC forecast scenario for global warming. The methodology consisted of two steps: (i) the development of a fuzzy model that estimated the grazing land capacity (RP) decrease risk as a function of the changes in the average total rain index, air temperature and increase in extension of the dry season; and (ii) the design of an algorithm for predicting the decrease in production as function of the RP fuzzy model, that results in the impact in beef cattle productivity, and consequent increase in production costs. Historical environmental data from important producing counties in the Cerrado were organized and a set of fuzzy Gaussian functions were developed, and three possible settings (optimistic, medium and pessimistic) were considered. The decrease in beef cattle productivity was estimated using the losses in production due to the increase in air temperature and vulnerability of pasture capacity. The boundary settings for the total increase of production cost scenario used the number of animals per area of grazing land, the adoption of grain supplement and its future scenario; and the result output function pointed to a threshold within a variation from an increase in production cost of 80% (optimistic) to 160% (pessimistic). Under the optimistic scenario the total cost of Brazilian beef cattle production in the Cerrado became near to US$ 2.88 kg -1 , while in the pessimistic scenario this cost reached US$ 4.16 kg -1 , challenging the international competitiveness of this economic segment. Key words: dry season, environmental temperature, fuzzy simulation, mathematical modeling Impacto do aquecimento global no custo de produção de carne bovina no Brasil RESUMO: O aquecimento global afeta o agronegócio em seus aspectos econômicos. Foi feita previsão da evolução do custo de produção de carne bovina brasileira usando a predição de aquecimento global do IPCC. A metodologia consistiu de duas etapas: (i) o desenvolvimento de modelo fuzzy que estimou o risco de decréscimo da capacidade de pastagens (RP) em função das mudanças no índice pluviométrico total, na temperatura do ar e na extensão da estação de seca; e (ii) o desenvolvimento de um algoritmo para predição do decréscimo da produção em função de um modelo fuzzy de RP que resulte no impacto na produtividade bovina de corte e conseqüente aumento no custo de produção. Foram organizados os dados históricos de fatores ambientais dos municípios importante produção no Cerrado e um conjunto de funções Gaussianas fuzzy foi desenvolvido e três estimativas possíveis (otimista, média e negativa) foram consideradas. O decréscimo na produtividade do gado foi estimado usando as perdas de produção devido ao acréscimo da temperatura bem como da vulnerabilidade da capacidade de pastagem. O estabelecimento dos limites para o cenário do acréscimo do custo de produção usou o número de unidade animal por ár...

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“…Global warming and sustainability issues can be considered at a large number of levels as well as related to several environmental conditions. According to the IPCC 2 forecast, glo- bal ambient temperature is likely to increase up to 5ºC until the end of this century affecting in an overall way agricultural and animal production (Bates et al, 1996;Brklacich et al, 2000;Chiotti and Johnston, 1995;CIG, 1996;IPCC 2001IPCC , 2001aIPCC, 2007;Specht and Specht, 1995) and this kind of global change leads to broad shifts in socio-economic systems Harrington and Lu, 2002;Howden et al, 1999;McCown et al, 1981;Mott et al, 1985;Stafford Smith and Foran, 1992;Topp and Doyle, 1996;), as well as bio-physical changes (Foran and Stafford Smith, 1991;Graetz et al, 1988;Marcelino, 2007). Possible variation in agricultural yield facing global warming has been established Siqueira et al, 1994;Stafford Streck and Alberto, 2006) and trends of modification in rainfall indexes leading to droughts not only in the Cerrado area, but also expanding towards the Amazon basin, have been reported (Marcelino et al, 2006;Marcelino, 2007;Sombroek, 2001).…”

Section: Impact Of Global Warming On Beef Cattle Production Cost In Bmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of global warming on beef cattle production cost in Brazil

2015

ASABE 1st Climate Change Symposium: Adaptation and Mitigation

1

0

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Global warming is affecting agribusiness in its economic aspects. Therefore, the prediction of the evolution of Brazilian beef cattle production cost was made using the IPCC forecast scenario for global warming. The methodology consisted of two steps: (i) the development of a fuzzy model that estimated the grazing land capacity (RP) decrease risk as a function of the changes in the average total rain index, air temperature and increase in extension of the dry season; and (ii) the design of an algorithm for predicting the decrease in production as function of the RP fuzzy model, that results in the impact in beef cattle productivity, and consequent increase in production costs. Historical environmental data from important producing counties in the Cerrado were organized and a set of fuzzy Gaussian functions were developed, and three possible settings (optimistic, medium and pessimistic) were considered. The decrease in beef cattle productivity was estimated using the losses in production due to the increase in air temperature and vulnerability of pasture capacity. The boundary settings for the total increase of production cost scenario used the number of animals per area of grazing land, the adoption of grain supplement and its future scenario; and the result output function pointed to a threshold within a variation from an increase in production cost of 80% (optimistic) to 160% (pessimistic). Under the optimistic scenario the total cost of Brazilian beef cattle production in the Cerrado became near to US$ 2.88 kg -1 , while in the pessimistic scenario this cost reached US$ 4.16 kg -1 , challenging the international competitiveness of this economic segment. Key words: dry season, environmental temperature, fuzzy simulation, mathematical modeling Impacto do aquecimento global no custo de produção de carne bovina no Brasil RESUMO: O aquecimento global afeta o agronegócio em seus aspectos econômicos. Foi feita previsão da evolução do custo de produção de carne bovina brasileira usando a predição de aquecimento global do IPCC. A metodologia consistiu de duas etapas: (i) o desenvolvimento de modelo fuzzy que estimou o risco de decréscimo da capacidade de pastagens (RP) em função das mudanças no índice pluviométrico total, na temperatura do ar e na extensão da estação de seca; e (ii) o desenvolvimento de um algoritmo para predição do decréscimo da produção em função de um modelo fuzzy de RP que resulte no impacto na produtividade bovina de corte e conseqüente aumento no custo de produção. Foram organizados os dados históricos de fatores ambientais dos municípios importante produção no Cerrado e um conjunto de funções Gaussianas fuzzy foi desenvolvido e três estimativas possíveis (otimista, média e negativa) foram consideradas. O decréscimo na produtividade do gado foi estimado usando as perdas de produção devido ao acréscimo da temperatura bem como da vulnerabilidade da capacidade de pastagem. O estabelecimento dos limites para o cenário do acréscimo do custo de produção usou o número de unidade animal por ár...

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Extending the boundaries of climate change research: A discussion on agriculture

Cited by 67 publications

References 44 publications

Sensitivity of winter wheat yields in the Midwestern United States to future changes in climate, climate variability, and CO2 fertilization

Sensitivity of winter wheat yields in the Midwestern United States to future changes in climate, climate variability, and CO2 fertilization

Impact of global warming on beef cattle production cost in Brazil

Impact of global warming on beef cattle production cost in Brazil

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