Recent research, such as the Active Virtual Network Management Prediction (AVNMP) system, aims to use simulation models running ahead of real time to predict resource demand among network nodes. If accurate, such predictions can be used to allocate network capacity and to estimate quality of service. Future deployment of active-network technology promises to complicate prediction algorithms because each "active" message can convey its own processing logic, which introduces variable demand for processor (CPU) cycles. This paper describes a means to augment AVNMP, which predicts message load among active-network nodes, with adaptive models that can predict the CPU time required for each "active" message at any activenetwork node. Typical CPU models cannot adapt to heterogeneity among nodes. This paper shows improvement in AVNMP performance when adaptive CPU models replace more traditional non-adaptive CPU models. Incorporating adaptive CPU models can enable AVNMP to predict active-network resource usage farther into the future, and lowers prediction overhead.
INTRODUCTIONGrowing availability of processing power and bandwidth in communication networks encourages innovative approaches to network management. One specific innovative idea envisions injecting simulation models into network nodes, and then running those models in parallel with the operational network, but ahead in time, in order to predict traffic and resource use. If the models predict accurately, then network management systems can better allocate capacity in anticipation of varying demands and network operators can better estimate the quality of service (QoS) that customers can expect. This paper describes one approach, the Active Virtual Network Management Prediction (AVNMP) system [1], which aims to predict network traffic. AVNMP uses active-network technology [2] to inject simulation models into network nodes, and to run those models concurrently with corresponding applications. AVNMP then compares estimated performance against measured