Exposure to a COVID-19 carrier: transmission trends in respiratory tract and estimation of infectious dose

Basu, Saikat

doi:10.1101/2020.07.27.20162362

Cited by 22 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 48 publications

(92 reference statements)

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“…Specifically, the minimum infectious dose was estimated by Evans (2020) and Barr (2020) to be~1000, while Ryan et al (2020) estimated a minimum number of 500 infectious particles to be sufficient to activate infection. A value of 300 is suggested by Basu (2020), while a value of 100 was conjectured by Karimzadeh et al (2020). Pfefferle et al (2020) and Basu (2020) hypothesized that even a single viral particle can be sufficient to initiate SARS-CoV-2 infection.…”

Section: Assessment Of the Potential Role Of Airborne Transmissionmentioning

confidence: 91%

“…A value of 300 is suggested by Basu (2020), while a value of 100 was conjectured by Karimzadeh et al (2020). Pfefferle et al (2020) and Basu (2020) hypothesized that even a single viral particle can be sufficient to initiate SARS-CoV-2 infection. Other respiratory viruses were found to be characterized by higher or lower infectivity levels.…”

Section: Assessment Of the Potential Role Of Airborne Transmissionmentioning

confidence: 91%

“…-2(Karimzadeh et al, 2020) Adenovirus 4(Knight, 1980) SARS-CoV-2(Pfefferle et al, 2020),Basu (2020) Influenza A (Nikitinet al, 2014) SARS-CoV-2 (Evans, 2020; Barr, 2020) SARS-CoV-2 (Ryan et al, 2020) SARS-CoV-2 (Basu, 2020), SARS-CoV-1 (Watanabe et al, 2010) particle radius ( m) PM10 (all processes) PM10 (all proc. but hor.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Assessment of the potential role of atmospheric particulate pollution and airborne transmission in intensifying the first wave pandemic impact of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 in Northern Italy

Girolamo

2020

Bull. of Atmos. Sci.& Technol.

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The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which exploded in Wuhan (Hebei Region, China) in late 2019, has later spread around the world, causing pandemic effects on humans. During the first wave of the pandemic, Italy, and especially its Northern regions around the Po Valley, faced severe consequences in terms of infected individuals and casualties (more than 31,000 deaths and 255,000 infected people by mid-May 2020). While the spread and effective impact of the virus is primarily related to the lifestyles and social habits of the different human communities, environmental and meteorological factors also play a role. Among these, particulate pollution may directly impact the human respiratory system or act as virus carrier, thus behaving as potential amplifying factor in the pandemic spread of SARS-CoV-2. Enhanced levels of PM2.5 and PM10 particles in Northern Italy were observed over the 2-month period preceding the virus pandemic spread. Threshold levels for PM10 (< 50 μg/m3) were exceeded on 20–35 days over the period January–February 2020 in many areas in the Po Valley, where major effects in terms of infections and casualties occurred, with levels in excess of 80 μg/m3 occasionally observed in the 1–3 weeks preceding the contagious activation around February 25, 2020. Threshold values for PM2.5 indicated in WHO air quality guidelines (< 25 μg/m3) were exceeded on more than 40 days over the period January–February 2020 in large portions of the Po Valley, with levels up to 70 μg/m3 observed in the weeks preceding the contagious activation. In this paper, PM10 particle measurements are compared with epidemiologic parameters’ data. Specifically, a statistical analysis is carried out to correlate the infection rate, or incidence of the pathology, the mortality rate, and the case fatality rate with PM concentrations. The study considers epidemiologic data for all 110 Italian provinces, as reported by the Italian Statistics Institute, over the period 20 February–31 March 2020. Corresponding PM10 concentrations covering the period 15–26 February 2020 were collected from the network of air quality monitoring stations run by different regional and provincial environment agencies. The case fatality rate is found to be highly correlated to the average PM10 concentration, with a correlation coefficient of 0.89 and a slope of the regression line of (6.7 ± 0.3) × 10−3 m3/μg, which implies a doubling (from 3 to 6%) of the mortality rate of infected patients for an average PM10 concentration increase from 22 to 27 μg/m3. Infection and mortality rates are also found to be correlated with PM10 concentrations, with correlation coefficients being 0.82 and 0.80, respectively, and the slopes of the regression lines indicating a doubling (from 1 to 2‰) of the infection rate and a tripling (from 0.1 to 0.3‰) of the mortality rate for an average PM10 concentration increase from 25 to 29 μg/m3. Considerations on the exhaled particles’ sizes, their concentrations and residence times, the transported viral dose and the minimum infective dose, in combination with PM2.5 and PM10 pollution measurements and an analytical microphysical model, allowed assessing the potential role of airborne transmission through virus-laden PM particles, in addition to droplet and the traditional airborne transmission, in conveying SARS-CoV-2 in the human respiratory system. In specific circumstances which can be found in indoor environments, the number of small potentially infectious particles coalescing on PM2.5 and PM10 particles is estimated to exceed the number of infectious particles needed to activate COVID-19 infection in humans.

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Section: Assessment Of the Potential Role Of Airborne Transmissionmentioning

confidence: 91%

Section: Assessment Of the Potential Role Of Airborne Transmissionmentioning

confidence: 91%

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Assessment of the potential role of atmospheric particulate pollution and airborne transmission in intensifying the first wave pandemic impact of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 in Northern Italy

Girolamo

2020

Bull. of Atmos. Sci.& Technol.

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“…The only human study on a coronavirus we found was on HCoV-229E with the TCID50 comparison was 13 (6). The infective dose in humans for COVID-19 was estimated as n×100 particles based on computational analysis of nasopharynx in transmission and inhalation of droplets (80). In animals the minimum dose of SARS-CoV-2 that infected immunocompromised hamsters were also 100 particles (35), whereas healthy ferrets and transgenic mice were infected at slightly higher dose of 500 particle by nasal (16) and 630 particles by aerosol route (20).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review of Infective Dose, Routes of Transmission, and Outcome of COVID-19 Caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Virus: Comparison with Other Respiratory Viruses<strong> </strong>

Karimzadeh¹,

Bhopal²,

Huy³

2020

Preprint

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Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is pandemic. Prevention and control strategies require an improved understanding of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics. We did a rapid review of the literature on SARS-CoV-2 viral dynamics with a focus on infective dose. We sought comparisons of SARS-CoV-2 with other respiratory viruses including SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV. We examined laboratory animal, and human studies. The literature on infective dose, transmission, and routes of exposure was limited specially in humans, and varying endpoints were used for measurement of infection. We propose the minimum infective dose of COVID-19 in humans, is higher than 100 particles, possibly slightly lower than the 700 particles estimated for H1N1 influenza. Despite variability in animal studies, there was some evidence that increased dose at exposure correlated with higher viral load clinically, and severer symptoms. Higher viral load measures did not reflect COVID-19 severity. Aerosol transmission seemed to raise the risk of more severe respiratory complications in animals. An accurate quantitative estimate of the infective dose of SARS-CoV-2 in humans is not currently feasible and needs further research. Further work is also required on the relationship between routes of transmission, infective dose, co-infection, and outcomes.

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“…This article has been accepted for publication and undergone full peer review but has not been through the copyediting, typesetting, pagination and proofreading process, which may lead to differences between this version and the Version of Record. Please cite this article as: Seyer A, The transmission of SARS-CoV-2 can occur via aerosols or contaminated fomites (1), and the COVID-19 infective dose is estimated to be approximately 300 (6). Besides respiratory tract secretions, the SARS-CoV-2 genome was also detected in saliva, urine, and stool samples, stating other possible transmission ways, such as faecal-oral or faecal-respiratory transmission (7).…”

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confidence: 99%

The fate of SARS-CoV-2 in the marine environments: are marine environments safe of COVID-19?

Çağatan¹

2021

Erciyes Med J

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Exposure to a COVID-19 carrier: transmission trends in respiratory tract and estimation of infectious dose

Cited by 22 publications

References 48 publications

Assessment of the potential role of atmospheric particulate pollution and airborne transmission in intensifying the first wave pandemic impact of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 in Northern Italy

Assessment of the potential role of atmospheric particulate pollution and airborne transmission in intensifying the first wave pandemic impact of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 in Northern Italy

Review of Infective Dose, Routes of Transmission, and Outcome of COVID-19 Caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Virus: Comparison with Other Respiratory Viruses<strong> </strong>

The fate of SARS-CoV-2 in the marine environments: are marine environments safe of COVID-19?

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