Exports and Tourism: Testing the Causality

A panel cointegration analysis of linkages between international trade and tourism: case of India and South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries

“…For instance, Fischer and Gil-Alana ( 2009 ) and Gil-Alana and Fischer ( 2010 ) found no long-run relationship between wine trade and tourism. Similar results were reported by Madaleno et al ( 2016 ) and Madaleno et al ( 2017 ) for agricultural food products. However, Fischer and Gil-Alana ( 2009 ) suggest outbound tourists have a delayed but positive impact on imports from destination countries.…”

“…They further suggest that this impact is short-lived and disappears in the long run. The short-run relationship may also differ with both product and market; with some product and market showing no causality, some product and market showing one-way causality and some showing bi-directional causality (Madaleno et al 2016(Madaleno et al , 2017. Madaleno et al (2019) attribute this promotional effect of tourism on trade to tourists acting as a channel of marketing for local food products.…”

A novel BEMD-based method for forecasting tourist volume with search engine data

“…It can be obviously seen that the time series data display a trend and a seasonality pattern. Therefore, the X-12 seasonal adjustment method (Madaleno et al, 2017) is employed in this study to further analyze the trend, seasonal, and irregular components of the time series, as shown in Figures S1 and S2 in the Online Supplemental Material. The comparison results confirmed that (1) the SED-I and the tourist volume exhibited similar general fluctuating trends; both experience a significant and fluctuating ascent from January 2011 to November 2017; (2) the two series had distinct seasonality characteristics, attaining the troughs in the low seasons for tourism (from January to April each year) and the peaks in the high seasons (from August to October); (3) a regular lead–lag relationship existed, that is, the troughs of SED-I usually preceded those of the tourist volume by approximately 1 month in the low seasons, while the peaks lagged by approximately 2 months in the high seasons due to a long increasing period of online searching behaviors (Yang et al, 2015; Zhang et al, 2017).…”

“…It can be obviously seen that the time series data display a trend and a seasonality pattern. Therefore, the X-12 seasonal adjustment method (Madaleno et al, 2017) is employed in this study to further analyze the trend, seasonal, and irregular components of the time series, as shown in Figures S1 and S2 in the Online Supplemental Material. The comparison results confirmed that (1) the SED-I and the tourist volume exhibited similar general fluctuating trends; both experience a significant and fluctuating ascent from January 2011 to November 2017;…”

How Much Does Trade Activities Improve International Tourism Demand? Evidence from Indonesia

“…In Romania, using a fixed-effects static panel model across 23 European countries datasets from the Romanian National Institute of Statistics in 1997-2008, the estimation has described that GDP per capita, bilateral trade, population, prices are the main determinants of tourism flows to Romania [12]. In Portugal, using locally processed agro-food export datasets obtained from the Portuguese National Statistics Institute in 2000-2012, and Granger causality test discovered that in the short-run, agro-food products like wine, canned fish, and cheese, which are linked to attractiveness and authenticity of the destination, may induce international tourism arrivals [13].…”