Export-Led Growth or Growth-Driven Export? New Evidence from Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries

Kónya, László

doi:10.2139/ssrn.254090

Cited by 38 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Using the optimal lag length of one (1) selected by four different criteria: Final Prediction Error (FPE), Schwarz and Akaike information criteria (SC, AIC) as well as Hannan-Quinn Information Criterion (HQ) we performed cointegration test to determine the long run relationship among the series by using Johansen and Juseliuscointegration test and the results are presented in Table 2. [52]. Both the trace and max-eigenvalue tests indicate no cointegration at 10 percent level of significance for Model 3 while the result reports 1 cointegrating rank for model 1, at 10 percent level and also reports 1 cointegrating rank for Model 2 at 5 percent level.…”

Section: Cointegration Testmentioning

confidence: 78%

Export - Led Growth or Growth – Driven Exports? Evidence from Nigeria

Alimi

2013

BJEMT

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Aims:This paper examined the role of export in the economic growth process in Nigeria. Study Design: Case Study. Place and Duration of Study: Nigeria. Time series data ranging from 1970 to 2009. Methodology:The study employs unit root testing, co-integration analysis and VAR Granger Causality/Exogeneity Wald Tests to analyze annual time series data from Nigeria. The study uses three measures of export namely, Total export, Oil export and Non-Oil export. This enhances the stability and robustness of results. Results:the unit root test showed that both economic growth and export are integrated of order one, i.e. 1(1). The cointegration test confirmed for model 1 and model 2 (where total exports and oil exports are used respectively as proxy for Nigeria exports) that economic growth and export are cointegrated, indicating an existence of long run equilibrium relationship between the two as confirmed by the Johansen cointegration test results. However, there is no evidence of cointegration between export and economic growth for model 3. Granger causality was applied to test the causal relationship between GDP and economic growth. The results show that there is evidence of uni-directional causality between export and economic growth in Nigeria in three measures of exports and the direction of causality runs strictly from economic growth to exports. Conclusion: This study provided support for growth-led export in case of Nigeria. Thus effort should be direct towards policies that will enhance economic growth such as import substitution industrialization (ISI) strategy, in order to impact more on exports.

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Section: Cointegration Testmentioning

confidence: 78%

Export - Led Growth or Growth – Driven Exports? Evidence from Nigeria

Alimi

2013

BJEMT

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“…However, among these studies only Bahmani-Oskooee and Alse (1993) and Awokuse (2005a) use quarterly data and both find evidence of bi-directional causality. In contrast, over a third apply a multivariate analysis which supports the hypotheses of export-led growth (Riezman et al, 1996;Islam, 1998), growth-led exports (Arnade and Vasavada, 1995), bi-directional causality (Anoruo and Ramchander, 2000;Awokuse, 2005a) and increased output growth leading to reduced exports (Kónya, 2004). Additionally, when undertaking bivariate analysis, studies reported bi-directional causality (Chow, 1987;Bahmani-Oskooee et al, 1991;Bahmani-Oskooee and Alse, 1993;Rahman and Mustafa, 1997;Ekanayake, 1999), non-causality (Dodaro, 1993;Dutt and Ghosh, 1996;Riezman et al, 1996;Islam, 1998) and that increased output growth leads to a decrease in export growth (Jung and Marshall, 1985;Kónya, 2004).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…In contrast, over a third apply a multivariate analysis which supports the hypotheses of export-led growth (Riezman et al, 1996;Islam, 1998), growth-led exports (Arnade and Vasavada, 1995), bi-directional causality (Anoruo and Ramchander, 2000;Awokuse, 2005a) and increased output growth leading to reduced exports (Kónya, 2004). Additionally, when undertaking bivariate analysis, studies reported bi-directional causality (Chow, 1987;Bahmani-Oskooee et al, 1991;Bahmani-Oskooee and Alse, 1993;Rahman and Mustafa, 1997;Ekanayake, 1999), non-causality (Dodaro, 1993;Dutt and Ghosh, 1996;Riezman et al, 1996;Islam, 1998) and that increased output growth leads to a decrease in export growth (Jung and Marshall, 1985;Kónya, 2004). Furthermore, several studies investigate the Granger causality test using the error correction model with bi-directional causality detected (Bahmani-Oskooee and Alse, 1993;Rahman and Mustafa, 1997;Ekanayake, 1999;Anoruo and Ramchander, 2000;Awokuse, 2005a), while evidence of non-causality (Dutt and Ghosh, 1996) and growth-led exports (Arnade and Vasavada, 1995) Toda and Yamamoto (1995) to reveal a negative link running from GDP to exports.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…In relation to the countries that are of specific interest to this study, there have been fourteen time-series empirical studies examining the relationship between exports and economic growth for South Korea (Jung and Marshall, 1985;Chow, 1987;BahmaniOskooee et al, 1991;Bahmani-Oskooee and Alse, 1993;Dodaro, 1993;Arnade and Vasavada, 1995;Dutt and Ghosh, 1996;Riezman et al, 1996;Rahman and Mustafa, 1997;Islam, 1998;Ekanayake, 1999;Anoruo and Ramchander, 2000;Kónya, 2004;Awokuse, 2005a). However, among these studies only Bahmani-Oskooee and Alse (1993) and Awokuse (2005a) use quarterly data and both find evidence of bi-directional causality.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Firstly, previous studies frequently include both countries as part of larger samples in relation to, inter alia, low, middle, high income countries; selected Asian countries; and as OECD countries (Dutt and Ghosh, 1996;Riezaman et al, 1996;Rahman and Mustafa, 1997;Islam, 1998;Kónya, 2004). Only one previous study (Awokuse, 2005a) focuses exclusively on South Korea, whilst only four previous studies focus on Japan alone (Grabowski et al, 1990;Boltho, 1996;Hatemi-J, 2002;Awokuse, 2005b).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Exports, imports and economic growth in South Korea and Japan: a tale of two economies

Zang

Baimbridge

2011

Applied Economics

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This paper investigates the relationship between exports, imports and economic growth for South Korea and Japan by constructing a vector autoregression (VAR) model. Causality is examined between real GDP, real exports and real imports. Several principal results emerge from the empirical work. Firstly, the three variables are cointegrated for both countries, implying that a long-run steady state exists. Secondly, there is evidence of bi-directional causality between imports and economic growth for both countries. Finally, Japan seems to experience export-led growth, while GDP growth in South Korea has a negative effect on export growth. These contrasting findings could result from export goods in Japan exhibiting greater non-price competitive aspects, although their success fails to trigger a virtuous circle since growth fails to lead to increased exports, whilst for South Korea, output growth leads to a decrease in export growth suggesting a strong domestic market.

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Do the vegetable exports lead to economic growth? An empirical evidence in selected SAARC economies

Kondal

2020

J Public Affairs

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The present study examines whether the vegetable exports lead to economic growth or not; and analyze the relationship between the vegetables exports and vegetables imports, capital and economic growth in selected SAARC economies for a period of 1988-2018. Present study employed panel econometric techniques; such as LLC, IPS, Johansen-Fisher Coinetegration, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square, heterogeneous causality to draw the empirical inferences. The present study confirmed that vegetables exports do not lead the economic growth in selected SAARC economies and rejected the Export led growth hypothesis. However, there is a long run relationship exists between the vegetables exports, vegetables imports, capital and economic growth in selected SAARC economies. The study suggested that policy makers to reframe the trade policies with respect to vegetables exports, and especially reduce the trade restriction for the SAARC nations. These policy suggestions not only helpful to improve the exports growth in the long run but also improve basic infrastructure facilities through diversifying their capital/investment.

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Export-Led Growth or Growth-Driven Export? New Evidence from Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries

Cited by 38 publications

References 23 publications

Export - Led Growth or Growth – Driven Exports? Evidence from Nigeria

Export - Led Growth or Growth – Driven Exports? Evidence from Nigeria

Exports, imports and economic growth in South Korea and Japan: a tale of two economies

Do the vegetable exports lead to economic growth? An empirical evidence in selected SAARC economies

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