Export‐led growth and its determinants: Evidence from Central and Eastern European countries

Abstract

In this study, we assess the importance of exports and global value chain (GVC) participation for economic growth. Using novel methods and an extensive data set, we decompose GDP growth in the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) to show that in a large part of the period of transition and integration with the EU, exports have played a predominant role in shaping economic growth. We also show that exports have been the major factor driving the convergence of the CEECs with their advanced counterparts. We employ panel methods to analyse the determinants of growth of exported value added and show that the major growth drivers in the analysed period of 1995–2014 are GVC participation, imports of technology and capital deepening.Jel classificationC23, F21, O33

The Cost of Missed EU Integration

“…Lastly, the reference scenario foresees a slowdown in the process of convergence of CEECs, already suggested in recent works (see e.g. Hagemejer and Mućk, 2019).…”

An empirical analysis using panel data gravity models and scenario forecast simulations for the Romanian exports in the context of COVID-19

“…In addition, both factors influencing exports should be considered in the actual context shaped by the global value chains (GVCs). GVCs, whose emergence is strongly connected to globalization, means that production of goods is rather fragmented (Hagemejer & Muck, 2019;Di & Forster, 2008). On the background of the coronavirus crisis, exports were affected by a shock on both sides, demand and supply, in most sectors, as compared to the crisis of 2008 when exports were only hit by decreasing demand.…”

“…This is one of the main reasons for which their trade relationships were mostly developed inside the EU borders ( Eltet} o, 2014), being part of the traditional approach in which exports were mostly directed in the more developed neighbouring Western EU countries (Soba nski, 2015). They soon became "the manufacturing backbone of the European economy" (Hagemejer & Muck, 2019, p. 1994, with important contribution in the global value chains (GVCs). The development of the 16 þ 1 framework of Cooperation initiated by China increased these countries' trade connections with the East Asian country ( Eltet} o & Szunom ar, 2016;Pencea, 2017) and further deepened the role of CEE countries as intermediary manufacturers.…”

Tracking the Characteristics of Economic Growth Vulnerability to COVID-19: A Preliminary Analysis

“…We depart from the hypothesis that a more open economy and with a higher share of exports is more vulnerable to the economic effects of the pandemic. Trade and particularly exports have been linked to economic growth, and more recently the composition of exports and the GVC have been gaining explanatory power (Chamberlain & Kalaitzi, 2020;Hagemejer & Mućk, 2019). There is evidence of positive links between economic growth and manufactures exports (Calderón, Chong, & Zanforlin, 2001;Levin & Raut, 1997;Carrasco & Tovar, 2020), medium-and high-tech exports (Burciu, Kicsi, Bostan, Condratov, & Hapenciuc, 2020;Canbay, 2020), fuel exports (Chamberlain & Kalaitzi, 2020;Shafiullah, Selvanathan, & Naranpanawa, 2017), and international tourism (Castro-Nuño, Molina-Toucedo, & Pablo-Romero, 2013; De Vita & Kyaw, 2016).…”