Exploring the sample size and replications scenarios effect on spatial prediction of flood, using MARS and MaxEnt methods case study: saliantape catchment, Golestan, Iran

Rajabi, Ahmad; Shabanlou, Saeid; Yosefvand, Fariborz; Kiani, Afshin

doi:10.1007/s11069-021-04860-0

Cited by 7 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…Boyce's index measures whether the values of suitability predicted by the model differ from chance alone. To estimate AUC, we used the ‘subsampling’ (jackknife) procedure in Maxent: 80% percent of the data were used for model calibration and the remaining 20% for model validation (Santini et al 2021; Rajabi et al 2021, ). The partial ROC analysis was conducted using the Niche toolbox package in R (Peterson et al 2008).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An ecoregionalization of the Sierra Madre Occidental, México, based on non-volant, small mammal distributions

2023

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The Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO) is the largest mountain range in Mexico, spanning nearly 1,400 km from northwest to southeast. It is a region of high ecological complexity, yet, few attempts at ecoregionalization are available. Using Maxent and five high-resolution (30 m) physiographic layers, we generated niche models for 33 species of small, non-flying mammals. We generated a proposal of regions based on the proportion of overlap of all possible pairs of species niches (ordinated using PCoA) and environmental data. We compared the resulting ecoregionalization with the most detailed regionalizations of the SMO available, based on floristic, vegetational, and bird distribution data. PCoA revealed two major axes of variation related to elevation and humidity, and therefore to vegetational composition. Our regionalization is consistent with previous regionalizations in recognizing a tropical and a xerophilous region, but not a transitional Madrean Tropical. We identified the highlands as a north-south continuum, and a transitional region was identified between the xerophilous and highland areas. Differences in ecoregional patterns in taxa as different as mammals and plants, are evidence that the SMO's complexity goes beyond the more traditional Nearctic-Neotropical subdivision.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An ecoregionalization of the Sierra Madre Occidental, México, based on non-volant, small mammal distributions

2023

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“…All models were trained with a random subset of 80% of the presence locations and evaluated with the remaining 20%, repeated five times each. We chose this proportion of training/testing data to maximize the data available for model training while still preserving a sizable dataset for model evaluation, and it has proven an effective ratio in previous evaluations of cross‐validation data proportioning (Rajabi et al, 2021). Models were tested for predictive accuracy with the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) and maximum true skill statistic (TSS), and parsimony with AICc (Allouche et al, 2006; Burnham & Anderson, 2004).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Habitat Suitability Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Karuk ecological fire management practices promote elk habitat in northern California

Connor

Tripp

et al. 2022

Journal of Applied Ecology

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1. After a century of fire suppression and accumulating fuel loads in North American forests, prescribed burns are increasingly used to prevent conditions leading to catastrophic megafire. There is widespread evidence that prescribed fire was used by Indigenous communities to manage natural and cultural resources for thousands of years. Wildlife habitat is an example of an ecological response that was actively managed with prescribed burns by Indigenous American peoples and is an important factor in western US forest management planning, restoration and climate resilience efforts.2. We analysed the effects of modern prescribed burns informed by traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) on the predicted change in elk winter habitat in Karuk aboriginal territory in Northern California between 2013 and 2018 using species distribution and simultaneous autoregressive modelling techniques. Burn types most closely resembling Karuk traditional practices, specificallythose incorporating multiple-year broadcast burns, had significant positive effects on elk winter habitat suitability. Conversely, concentrated burns focused solely on reducing fuel loads had significant negative effects on elk winter habitat suitability. However, areas where these fuel-reduction burns were combined with multiple years of broadcast burns featured the highest increases in habitat. Synthesis and applications.Our results suggest that transitioning to prescribed burns that more closely follow Karuk traditional ecological knowledge will promote elk habitat in the region. This would be best achieved through continuing to work closely with Indigenous representatives to plan and implement cultural fire prescriptions on a landscape scale, a trend we posit would benefit environmental management efforts across the globe.

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“…A total of 217,000 people were affected by this flood. Approximately 387 villages and 4000 buildings were severely damaged (Ministry of Agriculture – Jihad, 2006; Rahmati et al, 2016; Rajabi et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pastoral community's vulnerability under extreme floodings accelerated by rangeland degradation among Turkmen transhumant, Northern Iran

Azimi

Sharifian

Riazinia

et al. 2022

J Flood Risk Management

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Flood disaster is considered a significant natural hazard due to their devastating effects. The 2019 flood in Northern Iran drastically affected the lives of Indigenous Turkmen pastoralists. This work assesses the vulnerability of the pastoral families living in flood regions. We used the Geographical Information System, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, and semi-structured interviews to analyze the flood vulnerable areas. Initially, we interviewed 20 individuals and then formulated a questionnaire completed by 69 pastoralists in rangelands affected by floods in Golestan province. Result showed that 91% of the participants thought road networks and 76% thought livestock were the most affected components of the rangeland ecosystems in the 2019 flood. Moreover, we found supplementary feeding, watering costs, and forage quantity to be the most affected items in the economy of pastoral families. The main rangeland degrading factors were overgrazing, climate change, drought, and water shortages. The main reasons for overgrazing were the high prices of supplementary feeding, low forage productivity of the rangelands, and financial difficulties of pastoralists. We indicated that pastoral communities in the semi-arid rangeland of Northern Golestan were highly vulnerable to flood. Hence, proper management of rangelands and building pastoral family resilience requires the attention of nature conservationists and management organizations at the national level.

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Exploring the sample size and replications scenarios effect on spatial prediction of flood, using MARS and MaxEnt methods case study: saliantape catchment, Golestan, Iran

Cited by 7 publications

References 57 publications

An ecoregionalization of the Sierra Madre Occidental, México, based on non-volant, small mammal distributions

An ecoregionalization of the Sierra Madre Occidental, México, based on non-volant, small mammal distributions

Karuk ecological fire management practices promote elk habitat in northern California

Pastoral community's vulnerability under extreme floodings accelerated by rangeland degradation among Turkmen transhumant, Northern Iran

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