Exploring the future of land use and food security: A new set of global scenarios

Mora, Olivier; Mouël, Chantal Le; Lattre-Gasquet, Marie De; Donnars, Catherine; Dumas, Patrice; Réchauchère, Olivier; Brunelle, Thierry; Manceron, Stéphane; Marajo-Petitzon, Elodie; Moreau, Clémence; Barzman, Marc; Forslund, Agneta; Marty, Pauline

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0235597

Cited by 88 publications

(49 citation statements)

References 73 publications

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“…Identify drivers. Scenario development experts (L. Rutting and J. Vervoort) reviewed a wide range of existing scenario exercises (Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012;CCAFS 2014;Gallopin et al 1997;IPCC 2000IPCC , 2013Mora et al 2016;OECD 2009;Palazzo et al 2016;Rockefeller Foundation and GBN 2010;Vervoort et al 2016;Vervoort et al 2013) and identified the drivers considered in these future scenarios. This preliminary list of drivers was refined by all participants prior to the workshop and also during the scenario workshop.…”

Section: Scenarios Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Alternative futures for global biological invasions

et al. 2021

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Scenario analysis has emerged as a key tool to analyze complex and uncertain future socio-ecological developments. However, currently existing global scenarios (narratives of how the world may develop) have neglected biological invasions, a major threat to biodiversity and the economy. Here, we use a novel participatory process to develop a diverse set of global biological invasion scenarios spanning a wide range of plausible global futures through to 2050. We adapted the widely used “two axes” scenario analysis approach to develop four families of four scenarios each, resulting in 16 scenarios that were later clustered into four contrasting sets of futures. Our analysis highlights that socioeconomic developments and technological innovation have the potential to shape biological invasions, in addition to well-known drivers, such as climate and human land use change and global trade. Our scenarios partially align with the shared socioeconomic pathways created by the climate change research community. Several factors that drive differences in biological invasions were underrepresented in the shared socioeconomic pathways; in particular, the implementation of biosecurity policies. We argue that including factors related to public environmental awareness and technological and trade development in global scenarios and models is essential to adequately consider biological invasions in global environmental assessments and thereby obtain a more integrative picture of future social–ecological developments.

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Section: Scenarios Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Alternative futures for global biological invasions

et al. 2021

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“…Diverse methodological approaches have been applied to develop extended SSPs at the global and regional scales and with different thematic foci and time scales. At the global scale, the Agrimonde-Terra scenarios couple a qualitative approach based on morphological analysis ( Ritchey, 2011 ) and a quantitative modeling approach to explore land use and food security in 2050 ( Mora and de Lattre-Gasquet, 2018 ; Mora et al, 2020 ). Similarly, Lenzner et al (2019) propose to combine stakeholder engagement and numerical models to derive scenarios on biological invasions for the 21 st century.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems: The Eur-Agri-SSPs

Mitter

Techen

Sinabell

et al. 2020

Global Environmental Change

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Highlights We present scenarios for European agriculture and food systems: the Eur-Agri-SSPs. The five Eur-Agri-SSPs describe plausible and consistent developments until 2050. We followed a nine-step protocol to ensure a systematic and transparent process. European stakeholders provided regional and thematic details and valuable feedback. The Eur-Agri-SSPs can inform integrated assessments, education, and policy making.

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“…However, with the occurrence of the pandemic, an expressive portion of the population has been plunged into a state of extreme poverty, a result of the interaction between a history of structural, social and economic inequality and the expressive contingent of informal or unemployed workers, enhanced by the precarious conditions of the food production and commercialisation system, which involves agribusiness, a complex system of economic interests of large global groups (1,2) . These conditions are intensified by the impact of the fight for land, restricted access to drinking water and natural disasters with effects on the climate and the scarcity or lack of rain in many geographical regions of the planet (3) .…”

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confidence: 99%

Poverty and food insecurity may increase as the threat of COVID-19 spreads

Pereira

Oliveira

2020

Public Health Nutr.

229

159

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This article discusses the relationship between both poverty and food insecurity and the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as presenting possible strategies and actions for increasing social protection in the fight against these conditions in the current epidemiological context, especially for low-income countries. This is a narrative review concerning COVID-19, poverty, and food and nutritional insecurity. The COVID-19 pandemic may increase poverty and food insecurity levels, resulting from the absence of or weak political, economic, and social interventions to maintain jobs, as well as compromised food production and distribution chains and reduced access to healthy foods in different countries around the world, especially the poorest ones, where social and economic inequality was already historically high; the pandemic heightens and uncovers the vulnerability of poor populations. Public policies focused on guaranteeing the human right to adequate food must be improved and implemented for populations in contexts of poverty with the aim of providing food security.

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Exploring the future of land use and food security: A new set of global scenarios

Abstract: ecological crisis combined with social and economic crises, is still possible. Both scenarios should be part of the debate as the current context of the COVID-19 pandemic shows.

Cited by 88 publications

References 73 publications

Alternative futures for global biological invasions

Alternative futures for global biological invasions

Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems: The Eur-Agri-SSPs

Poverty and food insecurity may increase as the threat of COVID-19 spreads

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