Exploring the benefits of a Hi-EnKF system to forecast an extreme weather event. The 9th October 2018 catastrophic flash flood in Mallorca

Carrió, Diego S.; Jansà, A.; Homar, V.; Romero, R.; Rigo, Tomeu; Ramis, C.; Hermoso, Alejandro; Maimó, A.

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105917

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…However, for the sake of brevity only results from METAR diagnostics are shown here. More details of these diagnostics can be found in Carrió et al (2022).…”

Section: Observation-space Diagnosticsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving the predictability of the Qendresa Medicane by the assimilation of conventional and atmospheric motion vector observations. Storm-scale analysis and short-range forecast

Carrió

2023

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The coastal population in the western Mediterranean Basin is frequently affected by high-impact weather events that produce huge economic and human losses. Among the wide spectrum of maritime severe weather events, tropical-like Mediterranean cyclones (a.k.a. medicanes) draw particular attention, specially due to their poor predictability. The accurate prediction of this kind of event still remains a key challenge to the weather forecast community, mainly because of (i) errors in the initial conditions, (ii) lack of accuracy of modeling micro-scale physics processes and (iii) chaotic behavior inherent to numerical weather prediction models. The 7 November 2014 Qendresa Medicane, that took place over the Sicilian channel affecting the islands of Lampedusa, Pantelleria and Malta, was selected for this study because of its extremely low predictability behavior in terms of its track and intensity. To enhance the prediction of Qendresa, a high-resolution (4 km) ensemble-based data assimilation technique, known as ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), is used. In this study, both in situ conventional and satellite-derived observations are assimilated with the main objective of improving Qendresa's model initial conditions and thus its subsequent forecast. The performance of the EnKF system and its impact on the Qendresa forecast are quantitatively assessed using different deterministic and probabilistic verification methods. A discussion in terms of the relevant physical mechanisms adjusted by the EnKF is also provided. Results reveal that the assimilation of both conventional and satellite-derived observations improves the short-range forecasts of the trajectory and intensity of Qendresa. In this context, the relevance of assimilating satellite-derived observations to improve the pre-convective estimation of Qendresa's upper-level dynamics is shown, which is key to obtain a realistic track and intensity forecast of this event.

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“…However, for the sake of brevity only results from METAR diagnostics are shown here. More details of these diagnostics can be found in Carrió et al (2022).…”

Section: Observation-space Diagnosticsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving the predictability of the Qendresa Medicane by the assimilation of conventional and atmospheric motion vector observations. Storm-scale analysis and short-range forecast

Carrió

2023

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…However, for the sake of brevity only results from METARs diagnostics are shown here. More details of these diagnostics can be found inCarrió et al (2022).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Challenges assessing the effect of AMVs to improve the predictability of a medicane weather event using the EnKF. Storm-scale analysis and short-range forecast

Carrió¹

2022

Preprint

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Abstract. Coastal population in the Western Mediterranean basin is frequently affected by high-impact weather events that produce loss of life and property for an invaluable amount. Among the wide spectrum of maritime severe weather events, tropical-like Mediterranean cyclones (a.k.a. medicanes) draw particular attention, specially due to their poor predictability. The accurate prediction of this kind of events still remains a key challenge to our community, mainly because of (i) the errors in the initial conditions, (ii) the lack of accuracy modeling micro-scale physic processes and (iii) the chaotic behavior inherent to current numerical weather prediction models. In particular, the 7th October 2014 Qendresa medicane, that took place over the Sicilian channel, affecting the Islands of Lampedusa, Pantelleria and Malta was selected for this study because of its extremely low predictability behavior in terms of its track and intensity. To enhance the prediction of Qendresa, a high-resolution (4-km) ensemble-based data assimilation technique, known as Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is used. In this study both in-situ conventional and satellite-derived observations are assimilated with the main objective of improving Qendresa's model initial conditions and thus, its subsequent forecast. The performance of the EnKF system and its impact on the Qendresa forecast is quantitatively assessed using different deterministic and probabilistic verification methods. A discussion in terms of the relevant physical mechanisms adjusted by the EnKF is also provided. Results reveal that the assimilation of both conventional and satellite-derived observations improves the short-range forecasts of the trajectory and intensity of Qendresa. In this context, it is shown the relevance of assimilating satellite-derived observations to improve the pre-convective estimation of Qendresa's upper-level dynamics, which is key to obtain a realistic track and intensity forecast of this event.

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What causes a heavy precipitation period to become extreme? The exceptional October of 2018 in the Western Mediterranean

Khodayar

Pastor

Valiente

et al. 2022

Weather and Climate Extremes

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Exploring the benefits of a Hi-EnKF system to forecast an extreme weather event. The 9th October 2018 catastrophic flash flood in Mallorca

Cited by 3 publications

References 51 publications

Improving the predictability of the Qendresa Medicane by the assimilation of conventional and atmospheric motion vector observations. Storm-scale analysis and short-range forecast

Improving the predictability of the Qendresa Medicane by the assimilation of conventional and atmospheric motion vector observations. Storm-scale analysis and short-range forecast

Challenges assessing the effect of AMVs to improve the predictability of a medicane weather event using the EnKF. Storm-scale analysis and short-range forecast

What causes a heavy precipitation period to become extreme? The exceptional October of 2018 in the Western Mediterranean

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