Exploring climate change impacts and adaptation options for maize production in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia using different climate change scenarios and crop models

Kassie, Belay T.; Asseng, Senthold; Rötter, Reimund P.; Hengsdijk, H.; Ruane, Alex C.; Ittersum, M.K. van

doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1322-x

Cited by 124 publications

(95 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…A high yield variation was observed between models for all sites along the 53 years of simulation. These differences were caused by the interactions of models characteristics and local climate, which is common, as observed by Pirttioja et al (2015) when employed 26 crop models for wheat, as well as by Li et al (2015) for rice and by Kassie et al (2015) for maize. The sensitivity of crop models to climate change is dependent of current climate , and models´ structure and parametrization SOLTANI;SINCLAIR et al, 2015), which introduce uncertainty into crop yield estimates even for the present-day conditions (WHITE et al, 2011).…”

Section: Crop Model Performancementioning

confidence: 97%

“…Regarding crop maturity group, Kumagai and Sameshima (2014) demonstrated that late-maturity cultivars increase yield under climate change in cool regions of Japan, explicitly, due to the post-flowering day-length requirement extending the reproductive period, once the beginning of flowering was accelerated by higher temperatures in late and early-maturity cultivars. On the other hand, Kassie et al (2015) showed that under current and only wet-scenario future climate does a medium-cycle cultivar has significantly greater yield than a short-cycle maize cultivar, showing that an increased occurrence of water deficit penalizes both of them.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to Kassie et al (2015), in a humid climate under current or future scenario, a medium cycle cultivar has significant higher yield than a sort cycle cultivar.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Crop simulation models have been widely used in studies about crop management, such as sowing dates (BATTISTI; SENTELHAS, 2014), irrigation , nitrogen application (KASSIE et al, 2015) and farm management for current climate. The models have been also used in the context of climate change to simulate yield impacts (ARAYA et al, 2015), adaptation measures (BOOTE, 2011) and best crop management .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Calibration, uncertainties and use of soybean crop simulation models for evaluating strategies to mitigate the effects of climate change in Southern Brazil

Battisti¹

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Section: Crop Model Performancementioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to Kassie et al (2015), in a humid climate under current or future scenario, a medium cycle cultivar has significant higher yield than a sort cycle cultivar.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Calibration, uncertainties and use of soybean crop simulation models for evaluating strategies to mitigate the effects of climate change in Southern Brazil

Battisti¹

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“…The advance in high-performance computing allows the study of impacts from a range of drivers on interrelated domains or subsystems using model coupling (Guan et al 2015, Clarke et al 2017. The evaluation of different sources of uncertainty in impact projections has been done by, for example, applying an ensemble of impact models (e.g., Kassie et al 2015, Vetter et al 2016. Apart from quantitative assessments, qualitative scenario 9.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Systematic evaluation of scenario assessments supporting sustainable integrated natural resources management: evidence from four case studies in Africa

Reinhardt¹,

Liersch²,

Abdeladhim³

et al. 2018

E&S

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ABSTRACT. Scenarios have become a key tool for supporting sustainability research on regional and global change. In this study we evaluate four regional scenario assessments: first, to explore a number of research challenges related to sustainability science and, second, to contribute to sustainability research in the specific case studies. The four case studies used commonly applied scenario approaches that are (i) a story and simulation approach with stakeholder participation in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia, (ii) a participatory scenario exploration in the Rwenzori region, Uganda, (iii) a model-based prepolicy study in the Inner Niger Delta, Mali, and (iv) a model coupling-based scenario analysis in upper Thukela basin, South Africa. The scenario assessments are evaluated against a set of known challenges in sustainability science, with each challenge represented by two indicators, complemented by a survey carried out on the perception of the scenario assessments within the case study regions. The results show that all types of scenario assessments address many sustainability challenges, but that the more complex ones based on story and simulation and model coupling are the most comprehensive. The study highlights the need to investigate abrupt system changes as well as governmental and political factors as important sources of uncertainty. For an in-depth analysis of these issues, the use of qualitative approaches and an active engagement of local stakeholders are suggested. Studying ecological thresholds for the regional scale is recommended to support research on regional sustainability. The evaluation of the scenario processes and outcomes by local researchers indicates the most transparent scenario assessments as the most useful. Focused, straightforward, yet iterative scenario assessments can be very relevant by contributing information to selected sustainability problems.

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The role of crop simulation modeling in assessing potential climate change impacts

Timlin,

Paff,

Han

2024

Agrosystems Geosci & Env

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Agriculture is weather dependent, and changes in climate can have a drastic impact on our ability to feed, fuel, and clothe the world's population. Climate change is causing more frequent and unprecedented extreme weather events that are already negatively affecting agriculture. We need to assess the effects of extreme temperatures and rainfall on agriculture. Patterns of short‐term extreme weather events, such as elevated temperatures, flooding, and strong winds, are not predictable enough to design field experiments around. Process‐based crop and soil simulation models allow us to explore new management options and thus provide whole‐system‐based knowledge and management guides for different locations over variable climate conditions. By using crop simulation models, researchers can test different adaptation strategies and assess their effectiveness in reducing the impacts of climate change on agricultural production. In this paper, we discuss the development of crop models and how they have been used to assess the effects of a changing climate on agricultural productivity and propose methods for agriculture to adapt to those changes. We describe potential applications of crop models to assess regional issues such as irrigation demand, greenhouse gas emissions, and policy decisions. Better understanding of how weather and climate forecasts at various scales are provided and the reliability of these forecasts is important for using crop models as a planning tool. Different approaches for simulating long‐term climate change impacts on crop yield and seasonal yield forecasting are discussed. The use of ensemble models to better assess climate change impacts is also discussed.

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Exploring climate change impacts and adaptation options for maize production in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia using different climate change scenarios and crop models

Cited by 124 publications

References 43 publications

Calibration, uncertainties and use of soybean crop simulation models for evaluating strategies to mitigate the effects of climate change in Southern Brazil

Calibration, uncertainties and use of soybean crop simulation models for evaluating strategies to mitigate the effects of climate change in Southern Brazil

Systematic evaluation of scenario assessments supporting sustainable integrated natural resources management: evidence from four case studies in Africa

The role of crop simulation modeling in assessing potential climate change impacts

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