Exploring a possible connection between U.S. tornado activity and Arctic sea ice

Trapp, Robert J.; Hoogewind, Kimberly A.

doi:10.1038/s41612-018-0025-9

Cited by 18 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 53 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In contrast to other approaches, such as considering teleconnection patterns (e.g., Allen et al, 2015;Tippett et al, 2015;Piper and Kunz, 2017;Trapp and Hoogewind, 2018;Piper et al, 2019), regions with blocking establish direct links to dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms and processes influencing thunderstorm formation. The locations of the relevant (influencing) areas were determined specifically for this study, whereas teleconnection patterns are already defined for a predefined area.…”

Section: For Both Areas Approximately 22% Of the Days Betweenmentioning

confidence: 86%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Relationship between atmospheric blocking and warm‐season thunderstorms over western and central Europe

Mohr

Wandel

Lenggenhager

et al. 2019

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A statistically significant link is presented between atmospheric blocking located over the eastern North Atlantic and northern Europe and warm‐season thunderstorm activity over western and central Europe. Lightning data from 2001 to 2014 were used to identify thunderstorm days and blocking events were extracted from the ERA‐Interim reanalysis using an objective identification algorithm. The statistical link between the two phenomena is established through odds ratio analysis. Two areas – one over the eastern part of the North Atlantic and one over the Baltic Sea – were identified as locations where blocking influences the occurrence of deep moist convection in parts of western and central Europe. Based on the mean ambient conditions on days with blocking in these two areas, well‐known dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms supporting or suppressing the development of thunderstorms were confirmed. The anticyclonic circulation of a block over the eastern part of the North Atlantic leads to a northerly to northwesterly advection of dry and stable air masses into Europe on the eastern flank of the block. In addition, these environmental conditions are on average associated with large‐scale subsidence of air masses (convection‐inhibiting conditions). In contrast, the southerly to southwesterly advection of warm, moist and unstable air masses on the western flank of a block over the Baltic Sea results in convection‐favouring conditions over western and central Europe. Both blocking situations are on average associated with weak wind speeds at mid‐tropospheric levels and with weak wind shear. As a consequence, thunderstorms related to atmospheric blocking over the Baltic Sea tend to be on average less organised.

show abstract

Section: For Both Areas Approximately 22% Of the Days Betweenmentioning

confidence: 86%

“…; Tippett et al . ; Piper and Kunz, ; Trapp and Hoogewind, ; Piper et al . ), regions with blocking establish direct links to dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms and processes influencing thunderstorm formation.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relationship between atmospheric blocking and warm‐season thunderstorms over western and central Europe

Mohr

Wandel

Lenggenhager

et al. 2019

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…We excluded (E)F0 tornadoes from most analyses because they introduce an increasing trend (Figure 1(a)) that mostly reflects increased detection and recording of the weakest (E)F0 tornadoes over time (Verbout et al, 2006). The (E)F1+ record does not include a long-term increasing trend (Figure 1(b)) and has been commonly used to evaluate spatial and temporal variability and trends (e.g., Agee et al, 2016; Brooks et al, 2014; Elsner et al, 2015; Guo et al, 2016; Moore, 2017, 2018a, 2018b; Tippett and Cohen, 2016; Tippett et al, 2016; Trapp and Hoogewind, 2018). We also use the (E)F0+ record to evaluate the influence of excluding (E)F0 tornadoes from some analyses.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A review and analysis of possible changes to the climatology of tornadoes in the United States

Moore

DeBoer

2019

Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This review and analysis illustrates that the spatial distribution and temporal clustering of tornadoes in the United States are changing. Tornado activity is increasing throughout the Southeast and in the southern portion of the Midwest and is decreasing throughout the southern and northwestern portions of the Great Plains and in the northern Midwest. This eastward shift is seen in tornado density maps, regional and gridded trends, and in an eastward shift of the mean center of tornadoes at the annual scale and in summer. The mean centers of tornado activity in other seasons are rather insensitive to these changes. Tornadoes are also clustering on fewer days in the year, and days with few tornadoes are becoming less common whereas days with many tornadoes are becoming more common. These concurrent and opposing trends are subsequently altering the frequency distribution of tornado days. The seasonality of these big tornado days also appears to be changing, as their increase in frequency is greatest in the fall and winter. Lastly, the increasing frequency of these big tornado days, which are most common in the Southeast and southern Midwest, contributes to the documented eastward shift in tornado activity.

show abstract

“…Despite these efforts, little attention has been paid to seasonal or to sub-seasonal climate variability of convective weather over Europe (Tippett et al, 2015). Teleconnections between remote climate signals and thunderstorm frequency have become an area of increasing focus in recent years (Barrett and Gensini, 2013;Lee et al, 2013;Thompson and Roundy, 2013;Allen et al, 2015b;Tippett et al, 2015;Dowdy, 2016;Gensini and Marinaro, 2016;Molina et al, 2016;Cook et al, 2017;Allen et al, 2018;Baggett et al, 2018;Gensini and Allen, 2018;Tippett, 2018;Trapp and Hoogewind, 2018). These modulations to frequency can lead to extreme differences in thunderstorm frequency from year to year, a pattern that is evident in European severe thunderstorm frequency (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigation of the temporal variability of thunderstorms in central and western Europe and the relation to large‐scale flow and teleconnection patterns

Piper

Kunz

Allen

et al. 2019

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The driving factors that influence the spatial and annual variability of thunderstorms across Europe are still poorly understood. Due to a lack of long‐term, reliable and consistent information about the occurrence of convective storms, a weather type classification has been developed that estimates thunderstorm probability from a combination of appropriate meteorological quantities on the mesoscale. Based on this approach, the temporal and spatial variability of convection‐favouring environments is investigated between 1958 and 2014 using a high‐resolution reanalysis dataset. To identify potential drivers for convective days, typical upper‐level flow patterns were deduced using a multivariate approach. Our results suggest a strong link between local‐scale thunderstorm activity and large‐scale flow and air mass properties, such as stability, moisture, or vertical lifting. For example, while all over central Europe the most prominent pattern is given by a southwesterly flow type over the respective area, distinct regional discrepancies regarding further favourable flow types are observed. The crucial role of large‐scale flow is further studied by assessing the relation between Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns and widespread convective activity. It is found that positive phases of the East Atlantic or Scandinavian patterns go along with a significant enhancement of convection‐favouring conditions in several European regions, which can be explained by anomalies in the large‐scale temperature and flow fields. Sea‐surface temperature over the Bay of Biscay likewise impacts the convective environment, with the largest positive effect over the western part of the study area.

show abstract

Exploring a possible connection between U.S. tornado activity and Arctic sea ice

Cited by 18 publications

References 53 publications

Relationship between atmospheric blocking and warm‐season thunderstorms over western and central Europe

Relationship between atmospheric blocking and warm‐season thunderstorms over western and central Europe

A review and analysis of possible changes to the climatology of tornadoes in the United States

Investigation of the temporal variability of thunderstorms in central and western Europe and the relation to large‐scale flow and teleconnection patterns

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About