Explanatory and prediction power of two macro models. An application to van-involved accidents in Spain

Dadashova, Bahar; Arenas, Blanca; Mira, José; Aparicio, Francisco

doi:10.1016/j.tranpol.2014.01.014

Cited by 12 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…(1) The time-series model using exponential smoothing is suitable for predicting the death rate from road accidents. Time-series techniques have also been used to forecast accidents by ARIMA [9][10][11][12]16]. However, the Thai data set was not suitable for the ARIMA technique.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Various additional factors may potentially affect accident forecasting. According to international research studies (Table 1), time-series methods have been applied for accident prediction; for example, Quddus [9], Ramstedt [10], Dadashova et al [11], García-Ferrer et al [12], Zheng and Liu [13], Sanusi et al [14], Parvareh et al [15] and Dadashova et al [16]. The Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model has mostly been applied to time-series analysis.…”

Section: Previous Study In Road Accident Predictionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Forecasting Road Traffic Deaths in Thailand: Applications of Time-Series, Curve Estimation, Multiple Linear Regression, and Path Analysis Models

2020

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In 2018, 19,931 people were killed in road accidents in Thailand. Thus, reduction in the number of accidents is urgently required. To provide a master plan for reducing the number of accidents, future forecast data are required. Thus, we aimed to identify the appropriate forecasting method. We considered four methods in this study: Time-series analysis, curve estimation, regression analysis, and path analysis. The data used in the analysis included death rate per 100,000 population, gross domestic product (GDP), the number of registered vehicles (motorcycles, cars, and trucks), and energy consumption of the transportation sector. The results show that the best three models, based on the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), are the multiple linear regression model 3, time-series with exponential smoothing, and path analysis, with MAPE values of 6.4%, 8.1%, and 8.4%, respectively.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Previous Study In Road Accident Predictionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting Road Traffic Deaths in Thailand: Applications of Time-Series, Curve Estimation, Multiple Linear Regression, and Path Analysis Models

2020

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“…It is a common approach (e.g., Castillo-Manzano et al, 2011or Dadashova et al, 2014 to include the effect of legislative actions that might affect the behavior of drivers, and therefore, reduce the number of accidents. In terms of our problem, the effect of the legislative modifications is expected to reduce the claim frequency in those coverages that are related.…”

Section: Regulatory Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic indicators for automobile claim frequencies

Val

Castañer

Bielsa

et al. 2019

Estudios de Economía

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This article examines the relationship between observed claim frequencies in the automobile insurance line and the evolution of selected economic magnitudes. From a variety of economic variables, we aim to identify the main factors affecting claim frequencies, while controlling for other legislative and demographic factors. Through a dynamic regression model, the analysis is conducted for three different categories of vehicles and for a variety of coverages. A comprehensive dataset from the main Spanish insurance companies is used to calibrate the model. The evidence might assist companies to improve ratemaking.

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“…It has been stated that there is an increasing relationship between the higher speed and severity of the accidents (Chen et al, 2000;Yu et al, 2014;Dadashova et al, 2014). Almost 22% of the accident related fatalities have been estimated to be caused by inadequate speed (Chen et al, 2000) as it was observed in fatal accidents in Spain during year.…”

Section: Road Accident Predictorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Rainfall is associated with increasing accident risk especially in case of fatal accidents (Fridstrøm, 1995;Dadashova et al, 2014). The weather conditions are represented by the amount of rainfall, PREC, which fluctuates between 25.42 and 38.74 mm with the average value of 33.43 mm.…”

Section: Road Accident Predictorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation Study of the Effect of Decreasing Truck Traffic Flow on Safety on Almeria-Barcelona Corridor

Dadashova

2016

Libro De Actas CIT2016. XII Congreso De Ingeniería Del Transporte

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In this paper the effect of truck traffic on road safety has been analyzed through simulation study. The main objective of the study is to quantify the effect of the decreasing average annual daily traffic of heavy duty vehicles (trucks) on road safety. As the road safety indicators the frequency road accidents is considered. The data used in the study were collected from one of the most crowded routes in Spain which connects Almeria (southeast) with Barcelona (northeast). The observed data covers year 2010 and were classified into 2 road types: dual carriageways and toll roads. The estimation was carried out using negative binomial model and Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. Using the estimation results new traffic scenarios were proposed where the traffic flow is assumed to change its values. A total of 33 scenarios were proposed and new accidents data were generated through MCMC sampling. The comparison of the simulated and observed accident data shows that the effect of decreasing truck traffic flow could meliorate road safety in the route. The simulation tool could be applied to evaluate the effects of freight modal shift from road to rail.

show abstract

Explanatory and prediction power of two macro models. An application to van-involved accidents in Spain

Cited by 12 publications

References 30 publications

Forecasting Road Traffic Deaths in Thailand: Applications of Time-Series, Curve Estimation, Multiple Linear Regression, and Path Analysis Models

Forecasting Road Traffic Deaths in Thailand: Applications of Time-Series, Curve Estimation, Multiple Linear Regression, and Path Analysis Models

Economic indicators for automobile claim frequencies

Simulation Study of the Effect of Decreasing Truck Traffic Flow on Safety on Almeria-Barcelona Corridor

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