Explaining voter turnout rates in new democracies: Guatemala

Abstract

Abstract:This paper uses several ols models to evaluate the impact of sociological, institutional, and spatial approaches to turnout across the 330 municipalities of Guatemala. It shows that economic development and geographic location (urban vs. rural) have little discernible impact on turnout. Turnout, however, varies positively with the share of registered voters who are female, even if fewer women are registered to vote and, as a result, actually cast ballots. As turnout has fallen through time, the share of registered voters who are literate and the share of the population that is indigenous have become negatively associated with turnout. Larger number of citizens turn out to vote as municipal size decreases and as the ratio of registered voters to voting stations falls. That these factors are significant suggests that, even in a research design that privileges socioeconomic variation, spatial-institutional differences help explain voter turnout rates. Keywords: Voter turnout; Political participation; Democratization; Guatemala Artice: IntroductionIn the study of voter turnout rates, we know two sets of facts. One is sociological: numerous survey researchers show that, at the individual level, turnout varies positively with wealth and education (see Lijphart, 1997, for a review). The other is institutional: the more competitive and accountable the political systems are, the larger the turnout rate is (Cox, 1999;Jackman, 1987;Jackman and Miller, 1995). These are findings largely drawn from national-level studies of industrial democracies. How both sets of factors interact in the developing world, however, is largely unknown.We use a subnational research design to uncover the social and institutional underpinnings of voter turnout in Guatemala. By analyzing turnout at the municipal level, we can vary the social conditions that are held constant in most cross-national research on voter turnout rates while nevertheless employing the institutional variation necessary to evaluate the consequences of electoral laws. We also pioneer the use of three new spatial-institutional variables that measure the effects of location, distance, and jurisdiction on turnout rates-factors that geographers claim are as important as any other on a whole host of political and social outcomes (Agnew, 1996;Dorling et al., 1996;Hodge and Staeheli, 1992). In this paper, we also present novel estimates of the size of the electorate-all adults 18 or older-at the municipal level with easily replicable demographic techniques.

What Explains Voter Turnout in Latin America?: A Test of the Effect of Citizens' Attitudes Towards the Electoral Process

“…Institutional and political context explanations focus on the effects of electoral rules and the structure of the political system on voters' decision-making calculations about whether to vote. The electoral system (Blais and Carty 1991;Radcliff and Davis 2000), the electoral cycle (Fornos et al 2004;Dettrey and Schwindt-Bayer 2009), compulsory voting laws (Jackman 1987;Hirczy 1994;Jackman and Miller 1995;Pérez-Liñán 2001;Fornos et al 2004;Power and Garand 2007), unicameralism (Jackman 1987;Pérez-Liñán 2001;Fornos et al 2004;Kostadinova and Power 2007), district magnitude, the disproportionality of the electoral system, nationally competitive districts, and party fragmentation (Jackman 1987;Pérez-Liñán 2001;Fornos et al 2004;;Lehoucq and Wall 2004;Kostadinova and Power 2007) have all been linked to voter turnout.…”

“…Gender has also been linked to voter turnout: it has been argued that men have more resources and, thus, are more likely to turnout than women. However, recent comparative research suggests that the gender gap has gradually disappeared and that it is usually women who turnout at higher rates than men (Lehoucq and Wall 2004;Desposato and Norrander 2009). …”

“…My expectation is that in Latin America, women will turnout more than men. Even though it has been argued that men have more resources than women and thus have higher rates of electoral participation, recent research in the region suggests that the gender gap has been gradually disappearing and that women have higher turnout rates than men (Seligson 2002;Lehoucq and Wall 2004;Carreras and Castañeda-Angarita 2013).…”

¿Por qué se aprobó el voto voluntario en Chile? Razones y argumentos que impulsaron la reforma

“…6. liJphart, 1997gallego, 2010. 7. geys, 2006Bernhagen y marsh, 2007. 8. lehoucq y Wall, 2004Wall, . 9. indridason, 2008 10. rallings y Borisyuk, 2003. 11. mackerras y mcallister, 1999mcallister, .…”

Vote Buying and Victory of Election: The Case of Taiwan

“…Niemi (1976) indicates that higher costs of voting may considerably lower voter turnout in an election. That is, voters are more likely to participate in an election if they experience lower costs with voting (Colomer, 1991;Lehoucq and Wall, 2004). For instance, Haspel and Knotts (2005) argue that "the distance one must travel in order to vote" contributes to lower voter turnout (p. 561).…”