Explaining Vote Switching Across First- and Second-Order Elections

Abstract

Across Western democracies, individuals frequently vote for different parties in different elections. A variety of explanations have been proposed for this behavior. In the European context, scholars have focused on the idea that individuals may vote for different parties because some elections are less important than others (i.e., are “second-order” elections). In the U.S. context, scholars have focused on the possibility that individuals might vote for different parties because they care about how the two chambers will affect policy outcomes. In this article, the authors test among four alternative motivations for vote switching, two predicated on the notion that individuals treat one of the elections as second-order and two predicated on the notion that individuals care about policy outcomes from both chambers. The tests are performed by analyzing Euro-barometer survey data on individual voting behavior in European national and European Parliament elections. The authors find support for all four motivations.

The 2014 European Parliament Elections in Southern Europe: Second-Order or Critical Elections?

“…In both these Southern European countries we detect signs of a more 'critical' contest. The conclusion that electoral behaviour in the last Italian EP election, and to some extent in the Greek election, is not exclusively determined by national politics is in line with studies that consider the potential influence of European issues upon voter stances in EP elections (Carrubba & Timpone 2005;Ferrara & Weishaupt 2004;Hobolt, Spoon & Tilley 2009). …”

Reporting different second order elections: A comparative analysis of the 2009 and 2013 local and EU elections on public and commercial UK television news bulletins

“…Scholars have sought to differentiate between different types of second order elections, moving beyond European Parliamentary (EP) ballots to understand the behavior and engagement of voters at local, regional or state level (see, for example, Franklin and Weber, 2010;Marsh and Mikhaylov, 2010). In doing so, research conducted about second order elections often relates to how citizens perceive and participate in them (see, for example, Carrubba and Timpone, 2005;Schmitt, 2005;Clark and Rohrschneider, 2009), rather than about how the media report different types of election campaigns.…”

The aggregating function of political parties in EU decision-making

“…By appealing to differences in competences and policy opportunity structures at the Union and national levels, parties can likewise persuade voters to switch for the purposes of European elections only. Thus Green parties have pitched to those who favour strict environmental policies at Union level which they would oppose at national level for fear of lost competitiveness (Carrubba and Timpone 2005 Section 3 summarised research on the work of the EP party groups in aggregating the preferences of representatives. Section 4 did the same for the role of national parties in aggregating the preferences of voters in European elections.…”