Explaining variation in real wage growth over the recent expansion

Aaronson, Daniel; Hu, Luojia; Rajan, Aastha

doi:10.21033/cfl-2019-421

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 1 publication

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…This is approximately 10% of the reported decline in the official labor force participation rate since the turn of the millennium. On its own, 10% is sizable, but this finding is even more consequential considering that nearly half of the decline in the participation rate is from compositional changes in the population (Aaronson et al., 2012). This leaves only two percentage points of the decline to be accounted for by all other factors.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How does the dramatic rise of nonresponse in the Current Population Survey impact labor market indicators?

Bernhardt,

Munro,

Wolcott

2024

J of Applied Econometrics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

SummaryWithin a decade, the share of households refusing to participate in the Current Population Survey (CPS) tripled. We show households that refuse 1 month but respond in an adjacent month account for an important part of the rise. Leveraging the labor force status of survey participants in the months surrounding their nonresponse, we find that rising refusals suppressed the measured labor force participation rate and employment–population ratio but had little effect on the unemployment rate. Notably, nonresponse bias accounts for at least 10% of the reported decline in the labor force participation rate from 2000 to 2020.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How does the dramatic rise of nonresponse in the Current Population Survey impact labor market indicators?

Bernhardt,

Munro,

Wolcott

2024

J of Applied Econometrics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Most studies that try to distinguish between the trend and cyclical components of the participation rate proceed by estimating a trend rate and then treat the deviation of the actual from this trend as the cyclical component (e.g. Aaronson et al , 2006Aaronson et al , , 2012Zandweghe, 2012;Aaronson et al , 2014;Hornstein et al , 2018). These studies tend to agree on two stylized facts: (i ) the aging of the workforce has been reducing the trend participation rate and (ii ) the labor force participation rate is procyclical.…”

Section: Uncertainty About Trend Participationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“Missing” Workers and “Missing” Jobs Since the Pandemic

Hobijn¹,

Şahin

2022

SSRN Journal

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“Missing” Workers and “Missing” Jobs Since the Pandemic

Hobijn¹,

Șahin²

2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Since the start of the pandemic the U.S. labor market has been characterized as being plagued by missing jobs, i.e. payroll employment has fallen more than ve million jobs short of its pre-pandemic trend, and missing workers, i.e. the participation rate has declined by 1.2 percentage points: A pandemic-induced shortage of workers has restrained job creation and, as a result, been a substantial drag on post-pandemic job growth. In this paper, we show that this is a misinterpretation of the data for two reasons. The rst is that the number of missing jobs is inated because it is based on the unrealistic assumption that the pre-pandemic tailwinds for job growth from the decline in the unemployment rate and cyclical upward pressures on participation would have continued in 2020 and beyond if the pandemic would not have occurred. Second, the number of workers missing due to COVID is overstated because the bulk of the 1.2 percentage-point decline in the participation rate since the start of the pandemic reects a continuation of its long-run downward trend that was already part of projections before the pandemic broke out. Instead, our payroll jobs accounting yields an 810 thousand cyclical shortfall in payroll jobs in October 2022 compared to right before the pandemic. At the recent pace of job growth, even without monetary and scal tightening, we expect a substantial deceleration of payroll growth in the coming months.JEL classication codes: J2, J6.

show abstract

Explaining variation in real wage growth over the recent expansion

Cited by 3 publications

References 1 publication

How does the dramatic rise of nonresponse in the Current Population Survey impact labor market indicators?

How does the dramatic rise of nonresponse in the Current Population Survey impact labor market indicators?

“Missing” Workers and “Missing” Jobs Since the Pandemic

“Missing” Workers and “Missing” Jobs Since the Pandemic

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About