Existing Experiences of Risk Assessment

Abstract

This article examines the state of the art of qualitative and quantitative riskassessment methodologies in a variety of fields in order to systemize common techniques. The risk-assessment case studies and their key principles detailed within can be used to assist in the development of an initial risk-assessment mechanism for proofing EU legislation against fraud, corruption, money laundering, and organized crime under project MARC. This article is organized as follows: first, four common areas of risk assessment are identified and examined for common tools, uncertainties, and assumptions. Second, prevalent models of assessment methodologies are examined and weighted according to their relative simplicity, flexibility, and thoroughness. Finally, recommendations are made based on the analysis of the areas and models of risk-assessment methodology in fields other than legislation safety that can point the way to the effective and efficient development and dissemination of crime-risk mitigation protocols.

The incantations of the EU organised crime policy making

“…Risk can be broadly defined as the chance of something happening that will have an impact on objectives. It is measured in terms of likelihood and consequences [2]-see also [16]. However, risk as a working concept is defined depending on the agency and its requirements.…”

Measuring organised crime-related harms: exploring five policing methods

“…Police knowledge about organised crime risks is communicated, in part, through risk assessments, a concept borrowed from business and scientific literature (see [5]). Definitions of "threat" and "risk" vary according to the assessor's needs; however, the fundamental components of a risk assessment model are "a realistic recognition of hazard, a scale of risk and a defined protocol" ( [5]: 182).…”

“…Definitions of "threat" and "risk" vary according to the assessor's needs; however, the fundamental components of a risk assessment model are "a realistic recognition of hazard, a scale of risk and a defined protocol" ( [5]: 182). In the context of organised crime, a risk assessment involves an assessment of the nature and magnitude of the threat (i.e., actors posing risk), the probability and frequency of a threat occurring (i.e., achieving specific criminal aims), and the determination of the nature and scale of the impact (i.e., harm), intentional or inadvertent, should the threat be realised (see [5,46]). Law enforcement's risk assessments are intended to direct rational and evidence-based decision-making by allocating resources toward high-risk issues (see [1,46,49]).…”

“…These assessments, adapted from business and scientific risk literature (see [5]) conceptualise organised crime as a probabilistic risk that can be assessed, mapped and managed in structured analyses that determine the relative risk from specific criminal networks. The widespread but largely under-evaluated adoption of risk assessment methodology (exceptions include [16,44,47,51]) is a part of policing management strategies that emphasise proactive, preventive, and crime-reduction approaches, such as intelligence-led policing.…”

“…The MPS' Criminal Network Harm Assessment Matrix Manual (2008) is a protected document 5. For a detailed discussion of the 2006 version of the MPS' Harm Assessment Matrix, see[16].…”